Group C

[langpark]

Tonight I'm hoping...

to see Llorente start for Spain (unlikely)

Balotelli to get shafted for Di Natale (probably just as unlikely)...

 

[langpark]

So if Spain beat Ireland, the table will be 4, 4, 2, 0, meaning Ireland are the first team to be officially eliminated.... I think...

 

[HowHigh]

Really hope Italy get eliminated

 

[langpark]

Well it is a big grudge match, because of the Trappatoni factor, so Ireland will definitely be up for it...

 

[Big Sam]

Looking at the current table, does anyone here have flashbacks of 2004 when Denmark and Sweden conspired to draw with one another in the final match and Italy went out despite finishing on 5 points along with the Danes and the Swedes?

Could Spain and Croatia pull something like that again?

 

[hybrid_tiger]

Really hope Italy get eliminated

Still burns.

If they do get eliminated they only have themselves to blame. Should have been 3-0 at halftime against the Cros.

 

[HowHigh]

Looking at the current table, does anyone here have flashbacks of 2004 when Denmark and Sweden conspired to draw with one another in the final match and Italy went out despite finishing on 5 points along with the Danes and the Swedes?

Could Spain and Croatia pull something like that again?

Would be risky, Italy only have to win by 2 goals to be on equal goal difference with Croatia if they draw with Spain

The team who has scored more would go through if equal goal difference right?

 

[Tonearm Terrorwrist]

I'm sure a 2-2 draw is enough for both Spain & Croatia to progress. Italy winning 2-0 comes in to it if Spain/Croatia is 0-0 or 1-1 apparently.

 

[Big Sam]

Would be risky, Italy only have to win by 2 goals to be on equal goal difference with Croatia if they draw with Spain

The team who has scored more would go through if equal goal difference right?

No UEFA's system is not like FIFA's. It's stupidly based on head to head.

Basically if the three teams end up on 5 points then they're ranked against one another in a mini-group which dismisses the wins and positive goal difference obtained against Ireland.

This bloke explains it better:

Spain and Croatia go into the game in pole position - able to control each other's own destiny by engineering a 2-2 draw. With that result, both teams would go through to the quarter-finals no matter what Italy do.

An Italy win and a draw in the Spain-Croatia game would leave all three sides level on five points, and with the games involving the three sides all finishing as a draw it goes down to goals scored in the mini-league.

If Spain-Croatia finishes 0-0 then Italy would go through as group winners, they will have scored two goals to Spain and Croatia's one, with second place decided by overall group goal difference. That means Spain would go through in second with +4 to Croatia's +2.

If Spain-Croatia finishes 1-1 then it would come down to group goal difference between the three sides, as all three matches will have been drawn by the same scoreline. Spain would be guaranteed to qualify by virtue of their better goal difference with Croatia. If Italy beat Ireland by one goal, or 2-0, they will only finish third in the group. If Italy beat Ireland 3-1 then records will be level and qualification will be decided on each nation's position in the UEFA national team coefficient ranking system - and that would put Italy though in second ahead of Croatia..

That means that a 3-1 win for Italy, or a two-goal victory of a larger score, or victory by three goals or more, would guarantee their place with a 1-1 draw between Spain and Croatia. With that 1-1 draw Italy can only top Group C if they beat Ireland 5-0, or with a four goal victory of a scoreline 5-1 or higher.

The 2-2 draw, or higher scoring draw, would guarantee Spain and Croatia go through on head to head goals scored with Italy eliminated no matter what margin they beat Ireland by. Spain would top the group with Croatia in second.

At Euro 2004, the same fate befell Italy when a Denmark-Sweden draw of 2–2 or higher would eliminate Italy on goals scored in matches between the three sides regardless of Italy's result. Denmark and Sweden draw 2-2.

http://espnfc.com/en/features/1099715/group-permutations.html

:crazy: Unbelievably complicated. If they just used GD like FIFA it would be so much simpler

 

[Tom Shines]

I'd like to think there will be no chicanery between Croatia and Spain tonight - at WC2010 a URU/MEX draw would have seen both teams through, but Uruguay won and Mexico advanced on goal difference. A 2-2 draw tonight would look unbelievably suss.

I hope there's no collusion in football. For instance, it would detract from City's amazing league win if it came out that QPR actually stopped playing for those last seconds once they knew they were safe.

 

[langpark]

Di Natale's finally in the Italian XI, where he belongs. Hope he bags a hat-trick!

 

[langpark]

Here's a scenario that hasn't been mentioned, Spain are only one goal away from being eliminated....

 

[hybrid_tiger]

Di Natale's finally in the Italian XI, where he belongs. Hope he bags a hat-trick!

Di Natale has NEVER reproduced his club form for Italy. A provincial club player at best, IMO.

 

[HowHigh]

Spewing Italy got through