My contenders to win the premiership:
Melbourne
their richness of backline talent can take you deep into the Finals (like cowboys and Tigers of recent years). However I don't think the Storm have the halves to win a comp, Cronk too underdone and Scott Hill (if he makes the first team during the semis) will choke like he always does. Inglis also showed (and it has happened to plenty of great players) that he can wilt under pressure e.g. Origin one and presumably semis too. Bellamy a GREAT coach though, Bennett's protege
Bulldogs
Best forwards in the comp, mysterious mixture of backline where some are in rich form, whilst others can't regain old form, or have no experience.
I think they've had a soft draw to start the comp and have been flogged by several contenders, only feathers in the cap are wins over Tigers and Knights and being lucky enough to play poor teams early
Still the Dogs forwards and SBW are healthy and can smash apart any team not clever and lucky enough to and run around them. Mason in career best form and has dropped the d!ckhead attitude his onfield leadership can carry the dogs to a premiership like the Steve Price vibe did in 2004 (pricey missed the GF :-( ). O'Meley best prop in the comp MASSIVE impact and heart.
I honestly think if Sherwin finds good or better than good form the Dogs will take all the prizes, but since that doesn't look too likely it's too tough to call
Dragons
IF and only IF the following things occur:
* 90% of their starters remain consistently fit and build cohesion
* Matthew Head plays
* Nathan Brown catches a mysterious illness that keeps him from coaching them in the Big finals
> On a side note I'll say that Luke Bailey has been on par if not better than O'Meley as the best prop in the comp, he's got the heart and workrate of Buderus this year, it's a joy to watch. Go L.B.
Eagles
If they're going to win anytime in the next few years it's this year with BK in vintage form and Menzies as great as ever. Eagles have spent well and had some inhouse talent come through well. If there forward pack could put together their reign of terror from mid last year when they were the obvious best backrowers in league (for a period) they'll go places
Good teams that won't win the G/F in my opinion:
Knights
after 13 rounds with no bye Johns looks exhausted and plays it too. He's not going to be any younger or fitter after 29 games assuming Knights make the GF. They've got to seriously start resting him and maintaining his fatigue. I know the knights can't threaten without Johns but I think if the Knights progress with him he'll be burned up with defending and brutal defence in the semis and his old back won't carry the knights to a 2006 premiership
Tigers
I admit I can't tip the Tigers, so you can disregard this, but I can't see them putting together a sneaky run of form to burst into the finals like 2005. Anytime the Tigers warm up they'll either have desperate top4 competition throwing everything at them to suck the wind out of their sales, or poor old Benji will hurt something and they'll string together a few more losses. They also don't have Richards and O'Neill anymore and they are big losses for WT
Cowboys
They don't have anyone to partner JT, unless Payne can turn his form up to red hot like he started the season they don't have the options. You can never write off Cowboy creativity though so that's not why they won't win, the reaon they won't win is they're going to feel what the Broncos fans might term " a post origin slump". Reality of playing good league in QLD, sorry Cowboys you couldn't quite crack the bogey Tigers last year and you won't see the GF this year
Broncos
great coach, good roster, I think the Origin pain will ease a little this year but I think the loss of Ennis or any other ball playing hooker has robbed the Broncos of a golden title shot. Props though great lack the lustre of yesteryear, pack not what it used to be. Just not enough creativity without a hooker to assist whatever hack wears #7 to reduce pressure on Lockyer
*** Anyways in answer to the Thread title:
Depending on Injury, and if we were to assume there was no more NRL injury this year ;-) , either the Dogs or Dragons will win depending on which halfback plays better
