How things change

[hugzy]

a while back i remember someone posting how tough the knights draw is. at the time it looked asif we had 0 easy games and was always playing teams when they get their stars back

but all of a sudden our run home looks pretty good

v Parra - during midseason thought this was gonna be a tough one, but wat a bunch of eze-beats (i was shocked at how eZe they rolled over).

v Titans - at rd 11ish, we had NO chance in this game. now i think we've won FOR SURE

v Raiders - pretty tough, but surely our boys will be so confident now that we can win the close ones and blow sides away

v NQL - another game which was gonna be tough, now if JT plays, we're probably 70% chance of winning. if he doesnt, u can put ur house on Knights 40+ (especially after my American Indian Ghost Dance)

v Mel - i dunno y but i reckon we've won this one for sure. If we do, we'll be in top 4 next year

v Broncos - cant see us winning unless lockyer gets injured

 

[Alex28]

Titans, Raiders (without Carney) and Cowboys - we can win as long as we remain fit. Melbourne and Brisbane we can not expect to win.

So would 28 points see us in or just short?

 

[Karmawave]

Melbourne and Brisbane we can not expect to win.

With an attitude like that, if we cannot expect to win against Melbourne or Brisbane, what's the point of going to the semis anyway?

I think we can beat anyone on our day.

 

[Pumba]

Titans, Raiders (without Carney) and Cowboys - we can win as long as we remain fit. Melbourne and Brisbane we can not expect to win.

So would 28 points see us in or just short?

28 should see us get in IMO.

 

[K-Man]

I have spoken a lot about how tough our draw is, and still stand by that.

Sure there are some games coming up in the next few weeks that we should be able to win, but it won't change the fact that we have had very little luck or favour in the draw this season.

What really disturbs me is just how likely it is that we will need to win one of our last 2 matches (Storm and Broncos) to make the finals, while other sides like the Tigers, Raiders, Dragons etc have much easier last 2 rounds.

Now this situation would be all fine and fair if every team had played every other team twice during the regular season such as the English Premier League. We could have no complaints about meeting Storm and Broncos because everyone had to play them twice as well.

But in reality it is just plain and simple bad luck that our must win games are against them. Plenty of other teams have only had to play Melbourne once this year, and basically that alone could be the reason we miss out on the finals.

That's not even going into the rest of my concerns about how we were never, ever given a match where we played big name teams missing their rep players (Dragons position on the table is a fraud).

How can you play twice against Storm, Roosters, Broncos and Eagles (harsh enough as it is) without somehow in the "luck of the draw" meeting some of the sides when they are a bit weakened by rep duties. We had to play them all at the start of the year when they are fit and available, and all again later when their rep players were available and they were gearing up for finals football.

I'm deadly serious when I say that if we miss the finals by 2 points or on for-and-against it will be largely due to our draw. If you miss out by 8 points then sure, you just weren't good enough. But 2 points or less, and compared to how ridiculously different your matches might have been to the team about you, it's just a joke of a system.

 

[Adsy]

Titans, Raiders (without Carney) and Cowboys - we can win as long as we remain fit. Melbourne and Brisbane we can not expect to win.

So would 28 points see us in or just short?

30 points will probably get you 6th on the ladder.

28 points will be 7th or 8th on for & against.

Our biggest concern is the Raiders. They have the easiest draw. If we beat Titans then Raiders we are pretty much in.

Penrith are done. They will win 1 more game this year.

Tigers and Dragons have similar runs home and it starts with them playing this Friday.

If Titans lose to us this week their for & against becomes a huge problem - same with Warriors against Brisbane.

Parra, well they are just woeful.

 

[K-Man]

If we cannot expect to win against Melbourne or Brisbane, what's the point of going to the semis anyway?

I hate this type of logic. Obviously I expect that we CAN win, but that doesn't mean that we WILL win. Losing to both those sides would be no disgrace either, and it wouldn't mean we are not deserving of being in the finals. The Dragons will not deserve to be there any more than us, that's for sure.

And the fact is, strange things happen in finals football. We might finish 8th, come against Manly and beat them (in fact, if this match eventuates I will be putting money on us). Then anything can happen, players coming back from injury, momentum starts building... you just don't know.

But to say that if we can't beat the Broncos and Storm then why bother even wanting to be in the finals? Please.

 

[hugzy]

we need 3/5 to make it, 4/5 to get 6th

we need dargons and panthers to f**k up cuz 7th/8th pretty much means bye bye in wk 1 of the finals.

but because we can always hold the opposition to tight games, we might get the chance to make the prelim finals if we come 6th (7th/8th will get knocked out by Manly/Storm, then 6th will go to wk 2 regardless of win/lose)

im pretty sure we'll win v titans and cowboys, so danger game is raiders away

 

[Alex28]

I'm as optimistic as any one here...but they are not "locks". If we get a win great, but I think we need to aim for 28 points, get in the 8 and see what happens from there.

Lets be honest - a top 8 finish alone will be a great result in the scheme of things. Anything from there is a bonus.

 

[hugzy]

Obviously I expect that we CAN win, but that doesn't mean that we WILL win

nah trust me, after the Ghost Dance, storm is f*cked

 

[hugzy]

actually yeah i had a look

the draw sux but the only teams really affected by it seem to be the dargons (rest all kinda evens out)

but then again surely dargons deserve some sympathy for blowing it prematurely every single year from like 1992-2007

a top 8 finish alone will be a great result in the scheme of things

yeah it would be, but 6th would be AWESOME. i know this is pipe dreaming, but 6th probably means we play Cronulla/Roosters at a neutral ground, and that'd give us a good chance at making the Prelims... that would be unbelievable

 

[Adsy]

nah trust me, after the Ghost Dance, storm is f*cked

Can you ghost dance 1 side in every game next week. Let me know on friday who your going to dance and I will put a MASSIVE multi bet on.

 

[Pika]

Canberra in Canberra is a massive task.

 

[reginald.p]

When do we ever beat Brisbane or Melbourne, or Canberra in Canberra?

Our draw is terrible, during the origin period we had to play 3 games where we had players selected for origin 8 times. The 3 opposition teams we played in this period missed only 1 player to origin between them. Then we had to play Melbourne Brisbane Roosters etc at full strength twice.

The problem is the draw doesn't even out not every team play each other twice, the Sydney teams are generally weaker then the non Sydney teams. Because we are a non Sydney we have to play Brisbane and Melbourne twice every year and teams like the Rabbitohs Panthers Bulldogs once. Whereas teams like the dragons might only play Melbourne once and the Rabbitohs twice.

So yeah in conclusion the NRL sucks and i hate them

 

[Karmawave]

I hate this type of logic.

I should have quoted Alex28, because my comment was in relation to his previous comment, not my actual belief.


Personally, I think we can beat the Storm on our day, because we match up well with them, and the Broncos is winnable too - though not so much away from home.

People who have the attitude that they cannot beat them, might want to consider what is the point of going to the semis?

That was all I was meaning.

 

[Hanscholo]

We had Brisbane on toast this year, yea we lost the game but on balance we dominated them in the contest. Melb we pushed hard...I think we'd fancy being competative in both games. Dont underestimate the power of Smith using last years hiding at Brisbane to gee the boys up for a big one. I believe we can win all of those games, I think we will get 3 or 4.

I couldnt care less if we cop Melb at Melb in the semis, making them this year is a massive step forward and can only help us next season.

 

[BG]

a while back i remember someone posting how tough the knights draw is. at the time it looked asif we had 0 easy games and was always playing teams when they get their stars back

but all of a sudden our run home looks pretty good

v Parra - during midseason thought this was gonna be a tough one, but wat a bunch of eze-beats (i was shocked at how eZe they rolled over).

v Titans - at rd 11ish, we had NO chance in this game. now i think we've won FOR SURE

v Raiders - pretty tough, but surely our boys will be so confident now that we can win the close ones and blow sides away

v NQL - another game which was gonna be tough, now if JT plays, we're probably 70% chance of winning. if he doesnt, u can put ur house on Knights 40+ (especially after my American Indian Ghost Dance)

v Mel - i dunno y but i reckon we've won this one for sure. If we do, we'll be in top 4 next year

v Broncos - cant see us winning unless lockyer gets injured

How does this change the fact that we have probably the worst draw in the comp? We cop the four best teams (Storm, Manly, Broncos, Roosters) twice. And in the three games during Origin we played sides with a total of one player out between them.

Other teams we are in competition with for positions 6-to-8 have had anywhere from 2 to 6 point advantages over us simply due to the draw. It could cost us our place in the finals, and if we make it, we will likely be a couple of positions lower than we would be with an equitable draw.

Good on the boys if they make the finals against the odds. Doesn't change the fact that we have had to deal with the rough end of a draw that is a joke for a supposedly professional competition.

 

[Jono078]

Dragons have had the best draw.

During origin we played 3 teams who only had 1 origin player missing I think, that being Brett Stewart, no REAL loss for the Sea Eagles.

Dragons got to play Broncos and Storm - teams with the most origin players.

And just a couple weeks ago they got the Dogs at their lowest this year. Their draw has been very kind.

 

[Stranger]

With an attitude like that, if we cannot expect to win against Melbourne or Brisbane, what's the point of going to the semis anyway?

I think we can beat anyone on our day.

You are having a crack at someone being pessimistic :shock:



Anyway, i said a few weeks back that we need to go on a 4-5 match winning streak to make the finals. We have to win the next 3 to make it.

 

[Tommax25]

a while back i remember someone posting how tough the knights draw is. at the time it looked asif we had 0 easy games and was always playing teams when they get their stars back

but all of a sudden our run home looks pretty good

v Parra - during midseason thought this was gonna be a tough one, but wat a bunch of eze-beats (i was shocked at how eZe they rolled over).

v Titans - at rd 11ish, we had NO chance in this game. now i think we've won FOR SURE

v Raiders - pretty tough, but surely our boys will be so confident now that we can win the close ones and blow sides away

v NQL - another game which was gonna be tough, now if JT plays, we're probably 70% chance of winning. if he doesnt, u can put ur house on Knights 40+ (especially after my American Indian Ghost Dance)

v Mel - i dunno y but i reckon we've won this one for sure. If we do, we'll be in top 4 next year

v Broncos - cant see us winning unless lockyer gets injured

why would beating the storm this year guarantee top 4 next year?