I prefer to support my arguments using observations rather than stats.
Actually your observations
inform your arguments rather than supporting them.
They don't support your arguments because they are subjective and anybody could just disagree with them.
Stats are at least objective and therefore useful for supporting a line of argument.
I don't even know where you're pulling your stats from. Where is your source?
http://www.nrlstats.com/
Soward always had talent from the get go.
That's easy to say in hindsight.
You could tell he had playmaking ability.
Because he showed it in juniors, just like Mortimer. But Soward was famous for kicking a sh*tload of goals in the Roosters' junior teams.
Plus he played juniors as long as he could, which back then included a full season of under 21s.
Mortimer's last foray into junior footy was 9 games in the NYC (under 20s) where he was excellent as a playmaker (10 LBA, 16 TA). Manly's Kieran Foran had 11 LBA and 16 TA in 12 games.
He was inconsistent a lot of the time which was why he was in and out of first grade for a couple of years.
But if he was forced to play a full season in first grade we wouldn't be saying he was inconsistent, we would be saying he was sh*t.
Mortimer showed flashes of brilliance this year too but with his confidence down he was mostly ineffective.
But you could always see he had the ability and ball skills to be a great playmaker.
Except he's not a "great playmaker", he's a good one. His kicking game certainly helps.
He just couldn't show them every week. Now he can, due to being older and wiser and playing behind a solid pack.
Once again, you make great predictions in hindsight.
Morts has ticker, and certain skills and attributes which mean he could become a handy first grader at some level. But you need more than ticker to become a great half.
Why does he need to be a great half? Isn't it enough that he becomes a good first grader? He doesn't need to play at $500k when he's only getting paid $200k, plus he turns 22 mid season.
For every Cooper Cronk there's 10 Jeff Robsons.
That's eleven blokes in their late 20s. Aren't we talking about a 21 year old kid?
Guys with a great attitude who work hard, but simply don't have the natural ability to become anything other than average first graders at best.
Prior to 2009 Jeff Robson had played 6 first grade games. He turned 27 a couple of months after his first ever try assist in first grade.
I think Morts falls into this category.
Mortimer debuted at 19 and will have already played 50 first grade games before age 22. And you compare him to Robson?
He has a great heart, but in comparison to other young halves running around he seems well behind in natural ability when it comes to his vision, and his passing and kicking game.
"Other young halves"?
There's Mitchell Pearce, who's a lot bigger and more experienced, and he gets paid a lot more.
Sandow, who has mad skillz but whose second season (2009) was also pretty average. He also misses a lot more tackles than Mortimer. Hell, he misses more tackles than anybody.
Hodkinson who debuted (this year) 2 years older than Morts was on his debut. He's also a lot bigger and gets paid a lot more and apart from his long kicking and his defence is an ordinary playmaker.
Foran who is younger than Morts, but also very average so far. On the plus side, he's big and he defends well. Has a decent short kicking game but nothing special taking the ball to the line.
The young Manly halves benefitted from a similar gameplan to St George's - if the defence is moving up just shovel it out to the back-rowers/fullback. Hopefully Kearney sets up a similar system for us but it requires Hayne staying out of first receiver.
There's also Luke Walsh, who's 24 this year so not really 'young' for a footballer, but showed nothing until he produced a short kicking game in 2010
that was only as good as its chase. Also isn't relied on to be the primary playmaker at Penrith (Luke Lewis is the man there).
Josh McCrone is also 24 this year and very f**king average. Good enough to be secondary playmaker at a club that made the finals in his rookie year (2010). Kind of like Mortimer in '09, who was younger, played less games and made more line-breaks.
Jarrod Mullen (also 24 this year), who had his first full season in first grade in 2008, aged 21 (he played 35 games over 3 seasons from '05-'07). Definitely better than Morts at 21, though also had more experience and size. Not a world-beater but certainly good enough. One of those early bloomers (debuted at 18) who seems to have peaked at 21.
Robert Lui can definitely play and is still only 20. But once again, he's very big for a halfback (90+ kg) which allows him to be more effective at a younger age. Just like many of the young halves on this list.
Kris Keating. Enough said. Bigger and faster than Morts, and played better this year but he's also older (23 this year) and has never shown anything more than a running game. They were our NYC halves in '08 and Morts was our primary playmaker - Keating was called up to first grade because he was physically ready whereas Mortimer wasn't.
Wade Graham. Very young (21 this year) and also a midget like Morts. Played a handful of first grade games at five-eighth in his rookie year like Morts (though Graham was only 18). Wasn't as effective as Morts. Had a better second season than Morts but had Walsh as the other half (better than Robson), and also had Luke Lewis running the show inside the 20. Had a poor third season but that's because Travis Burns arrived and took his spot.
Finally there's Ben Barba, who has a great running game but his passing, kicking and organising mean he's shifting to fullback next year. Prior to 2010 he'd only played 8 first grade games and even in NYC (where he mostly wore 6) he wasn't noted for his kicking or passing game.
And those are essential qualities to being a first grade worthy half or 5'8th.
I agree passing and vision are essential in a primary playmaker, and kicking is essential in all halves. I think Mortimer has those skills. He showed them consistently in juniors and he's shown glimpses of them in first grade. What's held him back from being consistently effective is lack of size and lack of experience.
He does a very good running game though, something ironically our last young halfback to come through the grades, Tim Smith, was missing from his game. But he had all the rest.
True. But Smith also had size and a great kicking game. His lack of a running game allowed him to sit back and catch-and-pass a lot of the time, whereas Mortimer made his name running the ball (12 linebreaks in 2009) so obviously would feel pressured to do what he does best.
Ironically, he made more LBAs than linebreaks (and loads more try assists) in NYC where he was the primary playmaker.
