I'm gonna be rich, suckers!!

[I'm a loser baby...]

You have almost answered your own question.

Multis rarely get up but head to head bets can always generally get up.

That doesn't make sense to me. The difference is too great. Other bookies would just move in and offer a much fairer price and still make a fat profit.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Hey @Barry O'Speedwagon my multi after one game by my reckoning should be worth $6.20 ($2 X $3.10) so I expected the cash out value to be 90% of that, but it's only $2.45. Is there something else going on here or are cash outs just a massive rip off?

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Hey @Barry O'Speedwagon my multi after one game by my reckoning should be worth $6.20 ($2 X $3.10) so I expected the cash out value to be 90% of that, but it's only $2.45. Is there something else going on here or are cash outs just a massive rip off?

I can't follow the last 5 pages. What bet did you actually place and what events have been decided thus far?

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

I can't follow the last 5 pages. What bet did you actually place and what events have been decided thus far?

Dragons Chooks cows Penrith Parra raiders -12
Warriors Melbourne 13+
$2 to win $6792!

It's a pick the margin multi on all 8 NRL games. The dragons win by 1-12 was paying $3.10, so my bet should now be worth $6.20. Yet cash out value is $2.45.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Dragons Chooks cows Penrith Parra raiders -12
Warriors Melbourne 13+
$2 to win $6792!

It's a pick the margin multi on all 8 NRL games. The dragons win by 1-12 was paying $3.10, so my bet should now be worth $6.20. Yet cash out value is $2.45.

I don't know what their rules are, but they might take out their cash out margin on all of the 8 legs (or maybe remaining 7 legs). So if they are taking out 10% for each leg, the remaining 90% over 8 legs compounds to 0.43 (0.9 raised to the power of 8). 0.43 x 6.20 is 2.66 which isn't far from what they are quoting you.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

I don't know what their rules are, but they might take out their cash out margin on all of the 8 legs (or maybe remaining 7 legs). So if they are taking out 10% for each leg, the remaining 90% over 8 legs compounds to 0.43 (0.9 raised to the power of 8). 0.43 x 6.20 is 2.66 which isn't far from what they are quoting you.

Ah. Cheers. What a huge rort, given the bets can be placed consecutively by rolling over the winnings. Then you could cash out anytime for 100% by not placing the next bet.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Ah. Cheers. What a huge rort, given the bets can be placed consecutively by rolling over the winnings. Then you could cash out anytime for 100% by not placing the next bet.

Yeh, if you get 7 legs in, you would normally better off simply placing new bets on all the options not covered by your 8th leg selection. You would normally lock in a higher return that way.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Ah. Cheers. What a huge rort, given the bets can be placed consecutively by rolling over the winnings. Then you could cash out anytime for 100% by not placing the next bet.

Well, see the TAB have an association with some other company who actually provide the cash payouts. TAB are just an intermediary in this case. The other company is basically providing insurance, and to do that at an acceptable risk to themselves, they will effectively place wagers on all the outcomes that you did not select. The transaction costs involved in doing that (i.e. copping the bookies margin on each bet) add up.
They still rip you off absolutely, but there are good reasons why the cash payout will be lower than the simple single event odds.

 

[hybrideel]

I guess the thing is, if you placed the bets individually, would you have the balls to roll over all the winnings? By the end you would be putting 2-3k on the raiders winning 1-12 this week

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Well, see the TAB have an association with some other company who actually provide the cash payouts. TAB are just an intermediary in this case. The other company is basically providing insurance, and to do that at an acceptable risk to themselves, they will effectively place wagers on all the outcomes that you did not select. The transaction costs involved in doing that (i.e. copping the bookies margin on each bet) add up.
They still rip you off absolutely, but there are good reasons why the cash payout will be lower than the simple single event odds.

I can't see why there isn't a company that can cop the risk themselves, like a casino does, because they know that in the long run they will always come out on top. And that should make the number of legs irrelevant. The only thing that would matter would be the total liability.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

I guess the thing is, if you placed the bets individually, would you have the balls to roll over all the winnings? By the end you would be putting 2-3k on the raiders winning 1-12 this week

Yeah, would be nerve-wracking stuff but you wouldn't be getting ripped off and you'd be in control of when you stop. Making all those bets would be a bit of an inconvenience is all. I suppose you could make the multi for just a few games, up to the point you'd seriously consider cashing out. Then you could plonk whatever amount of your winnings you like on the next match.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

I can't see why there isn't a company that can cop the risk themselves, like a casino does, because they know that in the long run they will always come out on top. And that should make the number of legs irrelevant. The only thing that would matter would be the total liability.

Trust me. There is not a bookmaker in the country who bears the entire risk of all bets placed with them (except maybe the gutless merkins who used to go to the Canberra dogs and trots). They happily bear a proportion of the risk, but if and when their exposure to a particular outcome gets too large, they lay-off with other bookies / operators. The number of legs matters (somewhat) because it affects the costs of laying off (unless you can find someone who wants to give you a single bet on a combination of 7 independent events).

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Trust me. There is not a bookmaker in the country who bears the entire risk of all bets placed with them (except maybe the gutless merkins who used to go to the Canberra dogs and trots). They happily bear a proportion of the risk, but if and when their exposure to a particular outcome gets too large, they lay-off with other bookies / operators. The number of legs matters (somewhat) because it affects the costs of laying off (unless you can find someone who wants to give you a single bet on a combination of 7 independent events).

So unlike the punter, a bookie can't (or is not likely able to) take out a multi with other bookies?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Probably not to the point of minimising exposure to a multi-million dollar payout.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Probably not to the point of minimising exposure to a multi-million dollar payout.

Yes but that isn't what I'm talking about. The percentage they would take is what I'm getting at. And it's only a potential payout of a few thousand dollars, so they wouldn't even need to lay off in such a case.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Agreed. I wouldn't think a few thousand dollars would be considered anything more than running cost for most bookies. But how many huge multis would they have on the books at any one time? Could one be big enough to cripple you? All swans are white until a black one shits on your windscreen.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

So unlike the punter, a bookie can't (or is not likely able to) take out a multi with other bookies?

When you (or a bookie) take out a multi, you are receiving the product of the dividends on each leg. On each leg you lose the odds-makers margin on that event. The quoted dividend for the 7-leg multi will be affected by the odds-maker's margin raised to the power of 7. If someone offered direct odds on a single event defined as 'these 7 results', then you'd only lose the odds-makers margin once.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

When you (or a bookie) take out a multi, you are receiving the product of the dividends on each leg. On each leg you lose the odds-makers margin on that event. The quoted dividend for the 7-leg multi will be affected by the odds-maker's margin raised to the power of 7. If someone offered direct odds on a single event defined as 'these 7 results', then you'd only lose the odds-makers margin once.

Yes but the potential payout of the multi is already less because of that multiplication of the bookie's margin. So taking again from the cash out payment (more than they would from a single bet) seems like double dipping to me.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Yes but the potential payout of the multi is already less because of that multiplication of the bookie's margin. So taking again from the cash out payment (more than they would from a single bet) seems like double dipping to me.

It depends how big the deduction from the cash out option is. Obviously it is presently ridiculous, but no punter is being forced to cash out....it's just an option.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

It depends how big the deduction from the cash out option is. Obviously it is presently ridiculous, but no punter is being forced to cash out....it's just an option.

Interestingly, it's now increased from $2.45 to $2.89. Still only about half what it should be. Anyway, I think I'll be making the individual bets in future.