Interview with the Welsh banker: crowds, golden point, judiciary...

[papabear]

I don't know why people give Smith a hard time, he seems to be far more polished and effective then Gallop.

That said I think he should consider shipping clubs or expanding to bris2/perth and not submit to clubs interests.

 

[papabear]

That depends on if there is a serious competitor for those games. If not, and if Fox know there isn't, then they know the NRL will have eat humble pie and accept a low ball offer. what's Smith going to do otherwise? now if there is some serious competition then the figure will be significantly higher that Fox will have to stump up. Fox will get the rights just depends who blinks first as to what they pay for them. If I was Smith I'd be pushing for all the stuff you want to get out of Fox as a value add back to the NRL and accepting that your not going to get the same as AFL for the pay TV subscriptions (that's if there isn't any serious competition for the rights out there).

The game could live of 950 mil.

Let foxsports see how they go without rugby league.

 

[elbusto]

That depends on if there is a serious competitor for those games. If not, and if Fox know there isn't, then they know the NRL will have eat humble pie and accept a low ball offer. what's Smith going to do otherwise? now if there is some serious competition then the figure will be significantly higher that Fox will have to stump up. Fox will get the rights just depends who blinks first as to what they pay for them. If I was Smith I'd be pushing for all the stuff you want to get out of Fox as a value add back to the NRL and accepting that your not going to get the same as AFL for the pay TV subscriptions (that's if there isn't any serious competition for the rights out there).

then thank goodness you are not negotiating anything

 

[Perth Red]

Smith on crowds, clearly his answer is mainly looking at a Sydney response but does it engender you with hope that the NRL have a plan for growing crowds beyond the Sydney stadium strategy? Not sure his maths is very good, regular season club games were down 5.2% this season


SMITH: On the crowds we’ll end up about 2 per cent down.
BUZZ: They were the lowest for 10 years.
SMITH: You can look at the positives, too, like the biggest crowds ever for Origin and also the biggest ever for the finals series. It was phenomenal considering there wasn’t two big Sydney teams at the end. You look back at the weather and other things ….
BUZZ: But your strategic plan said crowds were going to grow. They are going backwards.
SMITH: For the last 20 years over the full season, it has been plus or minus 2 per cent. The average crowd has always been around 16,500. We have 300,000 members this year for the first time. We have a wider base of people watching the game. More women and girls.
When you build infrastructure that’s in the right place, like Melbourne or Adelaide, where they have these bigger crowds, we’ll get more people to the games. No one wants to be stuck in a car park for two hours. We’re going to get stadiums with the facilities our fans deserve. You’ll see the fan base build. We’ll get our 20,000 and 30,000 fans.

 

[sensesmaybenumbed]

Relocate 16 teams to Perth and resurrect Annandale and glebe.

Then relocate them to Perth.

Problem solved.

 

[Perth Red]

then thank goodness you are not negotiating anything

why, you think if there isn't another competitor for those games Fox are going to stump up big $'s and lose face? You think Smith is going to say all or nothing and look a total fool and give the game 1/2 the income of AFL for 5 years if Fox tell him to jump? Fox needs NRL and NRL needs Fox (unless there is a serious alternative provider out there), a compromise that saves face for both org will be the outcome. It will be less than AFL, Smith will say apples and oranges or ninth game or some other excuse and all will claim to have got a great deal. Such is the way of business.

 

[DiegoNT]

why, you think if there isn't another competitor for those games Fox are going to stump up big $'s and lose face? You think Smith is going to say all or nothing and look a total fool and give the game 1/2 the income of AFL for 5 years if Fox tell him to jump? Fox needs NRL and NRL needs Fox (unless there is a serious alternative provider out there), a compromise that saves face for both org will be the outcome. It will be less than AFL, Smith will say apples and oranges or ninth game or some other excuse and all will claim to have got a great deal. Such is the way of business.

Fox needs nrl way more then the nrl needs fox
Nrl still has a few cards up its sleeve.
The negotiations can probably go 4 ways.
1. Fox only buys the remaining 4 games. This may come at a low price but the nrl will survive. Fox on the other hand will find it difficult. With 4 games already live on 9 they'd probably lose subscriptions, with netflix taking over tv they no longer have much exclusive content.
2. Fox buys the remaining 4 games and rights to simulcast. This brings in the big money for the nrl. Fox still has a reason to attract nrl supporters (by far their biggest subscriber base).
3. Fox funds expansion to get an extra exclusive time slot. This again brings big dollars to the nrl, and expands our game without costing the nrl much. This option could also be combined with option 2 for even more big bucks.
4. Nrl completely snubs fox, gives the rights to someone else for low bucks or even for free. While this will be costly to the nrl they'll survive. Fox would collapse.

So if options 2 and 3 happen together we are in for a big pay day.
If options 2 or 3 happen by themselves the nrl will get a reasonable pay day.
If option 1 happens the nrl will get an ok pay day.
While option 4 is extremely unlikely but if it happens the nrl will do it tough, but will survive. Foxtel won't.

So the ball is in the nrl's court at the moment. News ltd personal attacks show that

 

[Phil McGrawhan]

why, you think if there isn't another competitor for those games Fox are going to stump up big $'s and lose face? You think Smith is going to say all or nothing and look a total fool and give the game 1/2 the income of AFL for 5 years if Fox tell him to jump? Fox needs NRL and NRL needs Fox (unless there is a serious alternative provider out there), a compromise that saves face for both org will be the outcome. It will be less than AFL, Smith will say apples and oranges or ninth game or some other excuse and all will claim to have got a great deal. Such is the way of business.

Care to tell me what was FOXs competition for the NON FTA AFLOL games .

 

[Perth Red]

Care to tell me what was FOXs competition for the NON FTA AFLOL games .

Non but they clearlY wanted to send a message to Smith and pull the nrl's pants down and give it a smack on the bum for being naughty. Wasn't just the amount but the whole press way they went about it, no subtlety involved there! every pundit agrees they have paid well over for the afl rights, make your own mind up why they have done that. Now what that means for NRL we will have to wait and see. As I said I expect we will see a lower $ value deal done with fox and everyone will claim the high ground.

 

[DiegoNT]

Non but they clearlY wanted to send a message to Smith and pull the nrl's pants down and give it a smack on the bum for being naughty. Wasn't just the amount but the whole press way they went about it, no subtlety involved there! every pundit agrees they have paid well over for the afl rights, make your own mind up why they have done that. Now what that means for NRL we will have to wait and see. As I said I expect we will see a lower $ value deal done with fox and everyone will claim the high ground.

Yet the afl was always predicted to get around $2b before we pissed off Rupert and he put in an extra $500m.
So The afl was always going to get around $2b despite fox having no competition for the paytv rights and channel 7 having no competition for the fta rights (because channel 10 wasn't a serious contender and channel 9 just paged a huge amount for the nrl).
It isn't competition that drives up the price of these deals, it's the details of the rights. Fox paid a huge amount to get simulcasting and more exclusive games from the afl, if it wants to do the same with the nrl (and considering nrl makes up its biggest subscription base, and has its highest rating programs) then it's going to have to put up a similar deal or be stuck with only 4 live games in non desirable time slots (which could seriously cripple all of foxtel)

 

[Perth Red]

Yep I agree with you on a commercial basis. The outlier is fox have lost all control of NRL and may think that min outlay on NRL and hold onto say 60% of subscribers whilst investing heavily long term in afl will see that lost 40% plus more made up by increased subscribers in three big afl markets that currently have low subscription rates. There is a reason they have splashed massive cash plus come out and slated the NRL as public as they have, I mean they even threatened the NRL by saying they will do everything they can to damage NRL by pushing afl in NRL heartland. That is a massive broadside by a future partner in the game. Going to be fascinating to see how this plays out.

 

[El Diablo]

 

[Frank Discussion]

i comprehend just fine. He is talking about the rights being undersold because gallop negotiated in news' favour. Smith did the same thing by negotiating with 9 only and he went one better by getting the afl more money then they would of. We dont know how much the rights could of got on the open market because they never went to open market. But its ok cause netflix are apparenty going to save the day for the nrl. Seriously how is negotiating with only 1 party when you have others hoping to make a bid not favouring that 1 party? I readily admit my bias i regards to smith but that is just idiotic.

None of that comment really even deserves a response, the only way to get control of the draw was to sell to 9 before speaking to anyone? Really?

except the deal smith done wasn't in channel 9s favour otherwise channel 9 wouldn't of paid an australia record free to air deal. A deal that'll see channel 9 pay more for the nrl rights than channel 7 will for the afl rights. $925m is exactly mates rates. To put it in perspective, the last tv deal gallop did, from 2007-2012 was $500m in total. Dave smith has almost doubled gallops entire deal from only the fta component. Now the news ltd journos will tell you his messed up, but he still has some valuable cards up his sleeve.
1. Is simulcasting.
2. Expansion so fox get back an exclusive time slot
3. If all else fails he can just refuse to give fox any rights. While it's drastic and will be costly to the nrl, it would completely kill foxtel in this country, especially with the rise of netflix which has foxtel quality tv shows at a lower price
the fact that so many news ltd journalist are doing personal attacks on smith shows that he has rattled them in this negotiating process, something that would never have happened under gallop

would of
could of
should of

 

[elbusto]

Hahaha haha haha hahaha !

 

[magpie_man]

*would have

 

[Perth Red]

Hahaha haha haha hahaha !

Please don't encourage his trolling, it derails threads enough as is.

 

[elbusto]

Please don't encourage his trolling, it derails threads enough as is.

Cant help it. That picture gets me every time

 

[magpie_man]

The game could live of 950 mil.

Let foxsports see how they go without rugby league.

This.
Throw in naming/digital/NZ rights and you have parity with the current broadcasting rights amount ~$1.2 billion. The game can well-and-truly survive on that sort of revenue, as it has been for the previous few years.
Then they have another 4 fixtures/week to sell and potentially could spread the game over as many of the FTA networks as possible for media saturation.
Foxtel subs in NSW & Qld would plummet and AFL fans would feel mighty ripped-off by comparison to their NRL counterparts.

 

[Perth Red]

Survive maybe but flourish? I think not. That would mean the salary cap remaining pretty static for 5 years, I can't see the players liking that, club grants hardly growing, can't see the clubs liking that, little by way of growth in grass roots, can't see anyone liking that and fighting a rear guard action against afl's push into RL regions with one hand tied behind our backs, good luck with that. Sure we could survive but it would make life very difficult for everyone and long term could be seriously damaging in the battle to be Australia's number one footy code.

 

[Phil McGrawhan]

Lol alfs push into RL regions .
Have you been living on another planet .

Afl was taking over Qld in 2005 according to simpletons like you .
Gift the kitty Kats some flags & RL is dead .

How'd that turn out for them .

Same in NSW .
AFLOL has been doing everything in its power to try to push RL out .
All they have is bullshit media articles & lies about participation numbers .
& tards like you who think the sky is falling in .