I think you will find that these days it basically comes down to who a player wants to play for. There was a time when it was just senior footy, but I think that has since relaxed. I think players who are in some dispute generally decide for themselves, I don't think there are anymore Nagas situations.
Because every player is different, it should be about where the player has the emotional connections, because that is what origin is all about.
My brother and I were both born in NSW, but lived most of lives in qld, but with a pro NSW mum and dad we are both through and through blues fans. But another kid in the exact same boat might feel he is a through and through qlder.
Like a Nathan Cayless born and bred in australian but obviously with nz parents who instilled in the boys they were kiwis.
I think the right decision is for players to go where their hearts are, the problem comes if say a selector from one state says if you don't play for us we won't let you play for them.
Most young fellas by the age of 18 know which state they are from or which country they want to play for.
Its only the Tonie Carrolls of the world that annoy me who are willing to play for anyone, no heart.