Jono's sim predicts 2012 NRL season

[Jono078]

So I'm thinking of doing this here as I feel here is where it will get the most discussion and interest.

I did it the last couple of years, last years thread is here 2011, but the 2010 one is located on another forum. 2011 wasn't the best as I wasn't in touch with the league as much and some of my ratings were off.

But anyway I have 2012 prepared and and already started the first 2 rounds so I'm gonna continue it on here.

If anyone wants to know more go ahead and ask.

First off here are the teams ratings for the 2012 season:

Now on to the first rounds results:


Round 1

Newcastle Knights 28 18 St George Illawarra Dragons
Parramatta Eels 18 19 Brisbane Broncos
Canberra Raiders 14 26 Melbourne Storm
Penrith Panthers 18 34 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
North Qld Cowboys 24 20 Gold Coast Titans
New Zealand Warriors 30 10 Manly Sea Eagles
Wests Tigers 34 12 Cronulla Sharks
South Sydney Rabbitohs 22 18 Sydney Roosters

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Wests Tigers 1 1 0 34 12 22 2
2nd Warriors 1 1 0 30 10 20 2
3rd Bulldogs 1 1 0 34 18 16 2
4th Storm 1 1 0 26 14 12 2 5th Knights 1 1 0 28 18 10 2
6th Rabbitohs 1 1 0 22 18 4 2
7th Cowboys 1 1 0 24 20 4 2
8th Broncos 1 1 0 19 18 1 2
9th Eels 1 1 18 19 -1 0
10th Roosters 1 1 18 22 -4 0
11th Titans 1 1 20 24 -4 0
12th Dragons 1 1 18 28 -10 0
13th Raiders 1 1 14 26 -12 0
14th Panthers 1 1 18 34 -16 0
15th Sea Eagles 1 1 10 30 -20 0
16th Sharks 1 1 12 34 -22 0

EDIT: Sorry guys I'll have to figure out a way to present it better with the formatting.

 

[Jono078]

Round 2

Manly Sea Eagles 20 21 Wests Tigers
Brisbane Broncos 18 20 North Qld Cowboys
Gold Coast Titans 16 26 Canberra Raiders
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 20 22 St George Illawarra Dragons
Cronulla Sharks 20 24 Newcastle Knights
Sydney Roosters 26 18 Penrith Panthers
Melbourne Storm 25 18 South Sydney Rabbitohs
Parramatta Eels 22 16 New Zealand Warriors

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Wests Tigers 2 2 0 55 32 23 4
2nd Storm 2 2 0 51 32 19 4
3rd Knights 2 2 0 52 38 14 4
4th Cowboys 2 2 0 44 38 6 4
5th Warriors 2 1 1 46 32 14 2
6th Bulldogs 2 1 1 54 40 14 2
7th Eels 2 1 1 40 35 5 2
8th Roosters 2 1 1 44 40 4 2
9th Broncos 2 1 1 37 38 -1 2
10th Raiders 2 1 1 40 42 -2 2
11th Rabbitohs 2 1 1 40 43 -3 2
12th Dragons 2 1 1 40 48 -8 2
13th Titans 2 0 2 36 50 -14 0
14th Sea Eagles 2 0 2 30 51 -21 0
15th Panthers 2 0 2 36 60 -24 0
16th Sharks 2 0 2 32 58 -26 0

 

[watatank]

what are the team ratings based on

 

[skeepe]

Knights equal with Storm and Manly? Sorry, but no. Therefore this whole thing is flawed from the outset. Nice idea though.

 

[Jono078]

You seemed to like it last year Skeepe

Ratings based on personal opinion.

Round 3
St George Illawarra Dragons 20 21 Wests Tigers
Newcastle Knights 28 14 Brisbane Broncos
Gold Coast Titans 16 26 Melbourne Storm
North Qld Cowboys 24 18 Parramatta Eels
New Zealand Warriors 20 30 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Sydney Roosters 20 24 Canberra Raiders
Penrith Panthers 18 26 South Sydney Rabbitohs
Cronulla Sharks 22 18 Manly Sea Eagles

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Storm 3 3 0 77 48 29 6
2nd Knights 3 3 0 80 52 28 6
3rd Wests Tigers 3 3 0 76 52 24 6
4th Cowboys 3 3 0 68 56 12 6
5th Bulldogs 3 2 1 84 60 24 4
6th Rabbitohs 3 2 1 66 61 5 4
7th Raiders 3 2 1 64 62 2 4
8th Warriors 3 1 2 66 62 4 2
9th Roosters 3 1 2 64 64 0 2
10th Eels 3 1 2 58 59 -1 2
11th Dragons 3 1 2 60 69 -9 2
12th Broncos 3 1 2 51 66 -15 2
13th Sharks 3 1 2 54 76 -22 2
14th Titans 3 0 3 52 76 -24 0
15th Sea Eagles 3 0 3 48 73 -25 0
16th Panthers 3 0 3 54 86 -32 0

 

[Jono078]

Round 4
Parramatta Eels 14 30 Penrith Panthers
South Sydney Rabbitohs 23 16 Brisbane Broncos
New Zealand Warriors 26 16 Gold Coast Titans
St George Illawarra Dragons 16 18 Manly Sea Eagles
North Qld Cowboys 40 10 Cronulla Sharks
Melbourne Storm 24 16 Sydney Roosters
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 16 30 Newcastle Knights
Wests Tigers 28 12 Canberra Raiders

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 4 4 0 110 68 42 8
2nd Cowboys 4 4 0 108 66 42 8
3rd Wests Tigers 4 4 0 104 64 40 8
4th Storm 4 4 0 101 64 37 8
5th Rabbitohs 4 3 1 89 77 12 6
6th Warriors 4 2 2 92 78 14 4
7th Bulldogs 4 2 2 100 90 10 4
8th Raiders 4 2 2 76 90 -14 4
9th Roosters 4 1 3 80 88 -8 2
10th Dragons 4 1 3 76 87 -11 2
11th Panthers 4 1 3 84 100 -16 2
12th Eels 4 1 3 72 89 -17 2
13th Broncos 4 1 3 67 89 -22 2
14th Sea Eagles 4 1 3 66 89 -23 2
15th Sharks 4 1 3 64 116 -52 2
16th Titans 4 0 4 68 102 -34 0

Storm Vs Knights in the next round!

 

[Jono078]

Round 5
Melbourne Storm 16 36 Newcastle Knights
Brisbane Broncos 20 18 St George Illawarra Dragons
Penrith Panthers 30 18 Cronulla Sharks
Parramatta Eels 20 21 Manly Sea Eagles
Sydney Roosters 20 26 New Zealand Warriors
Gold Coast Titans 24 26 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Wests Tigers 20 16 South Sydney Rabbitohs
Canberra Raiders 15 14 North Qld Cowboys

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 5 5 0 146 84 62 10
2nd Wests Tigers 5 5 0 124 80 44 10
3rd Cowboys 5 4 1 122 81 41 8
4th Storm 5 4 1 117 100 17 8
5th Warriors 5 3 2 118 98 20 6
6th Bulldogs 5 3 2 126 114 12 6
7th Rabbitohs 5 3 2 105 97 8 6
8th Raiders 5 3 2 91 104 -13 6
9th Panthers 5 2 3 114 118 -4 4
10th Broncos 5 2 3 87 107 -20 4
11th Sea Eagles 5 2 3 87 109 -22 4
12th Dragons 5 1 4 94 107 -13 2
13th Roosters 5 1 4 100 114 -14 2
14th Eels 5 1 4 92 110 -18 2
15th Sharks 5 1 4 82 146 -64 2
16th Titans 5 0 5 92 128 -36 0

 

[Marshall_magic]

For some reason I really like it......I don't know why though.

 

[innsaneink]

Who were FTS's in round one please?

 

[coolumsharkie]

Newcastle will win it

 

[Jono078]

Who were FTS's in round one please?

Mine doesn't produce stats and try scorers, just final results.

Also, I fear this year I'll get called biased more than the past few years.

Newcastle are favorites to win this year FFS, so they are reflected like wise in my sim.

Just go look at last years results, Newcastle finished like 9th or something in my sim, 1 spot off from their actual result, so I don't believe I'm biased towards them really.

I'll do a few more rounds later tonight, I want this to gain a bit more interest before I just go ahead and simulate all the rounds.

I'll also be simulating the finals series as well.

Any other questions, go ahead and ask. How do you all think it's shaping up so far?

 

[Bman26]

Does your rating take into account home and away? Hard to see Newcastle winning in Melbourne, same as Dogs in NZ and Canberra in Sydney.....

 

[roboshark]

Newcastle on top....what a surprise

 

[coolumsharkie]

How did you come up with the ratings? What did you calculate to end up with those numbers? Or are you feeding info into one of them computer thingy's like Dexter on "A Perfect Match"

?

 

[Jono078]

Yep, absolutely takes into account to give the home team a bit of an advantage.

Maybe not enough, I don't know.

I really doubt the Knights do a job on Melbourne in Melbourne as well.

 

[skeepe]

Does your rating take into account home and away? Hard to see Newcastle winning in Melbourne, same as Dogs in NZ and Canberra in Sydney.....

Canberra won in Melbourne last year. In Sydney too. Shit happens.

 

[Jono078]

How did you come up with the ratings? What did you calculate to end up with those numbers? Or are you feeding info into one of them computer thingy's like Dexter on "A Perfect Match"

?

Only ratings I manually input or have input are the Players ratings and coaches ratings.

The simulator does the rest of comparing the numbers and coming up with a scoreline.

Usually I use this for when the actual season has started so I can input some more data to determine a more accurate result, such as players form, weather conditions, team form, their attacking and defensive form etc.

But as this is a season prediction all of those values are set to random, so it's simulating the games 10 times and then I copy the average result.

I'll post a picture so you guys can get an idea of what it looks like.

 

[whall15]

I'd be interested to see how you've rated the Eels' squad.

 

[coolumsharkie]

I get what your trying to do here but it's pointless without offering up variables and figuring them into your Sim program or whatever, say for a small eg rainy weather tends toward forwards game but pick up .05 of an injury..lol.. Home advantages as someone said, durability based on injury history ect ect ect

 

[joshie]

I really doubt the Knights do a job on Melbourne in Melbourne as well.