Jono's sim predicts 2012 NRL season

[Snappy]

lol do Newcastle ever lose ? Just another Knights fan that expect to win the premership this year.

 

[The European Polynesian]

Well the whole system is based on the player ratings which are extremely subjective anyway, so this is just as useful as someone doing their picks normally.

 

[Bman26]

Canberra won in Melbourne last year. In Sydney too. Shit happens.

f**k talk about taking things a bit personally. Yes they did indeed win in those locations last year but their record in those locations wouldn't be what you would call favourable. I wasn't saying that they can't but as a Canberra fan you should know all about teams struggling in certain locations, specifically a certain merged entity........


So all I was asking was do his calculations take into account home and away but now that I think about it does it factor in historical record at the ground as well?

 

[skeepe]

f**k talk about taking things a bit personally. Yes they did indeed win in those locations last year but their record in those locations wouldn't be what you would call favourable. I wasn't saying that they can't but as a Canberra fan you should know all about teams struggling in certain locations, specifically a certain merged entity........


So all I was asking was do his calculations take into account home and away but now that I think about it does it factor in historical record at the ground as well?

I didn't take anything personally. I merely stated a fact. If you have a problem with that I suggest it is you who is taking things personally.

 

[Jono078]

I don't release ratings as no one agrees with them, that is a fact.

Another fact is I doubt anyone likes this or will give any sort of credit for what it does, if you don't like it your welcome to go find something else to predict the season for you, for all I care it could be a coin, toss it as many times as you like.

Someone called me out on this having no variables, I listed a few of them in an earlier post. This simulator is built around variables..

And obviously it didn't take long for someone to say Knights/biased etc

Anyway, few more rounds coming up for those taking a bit of interest in this. While Skeepe is anti Newcastle/Knights I appreciate his involvement in this thread.

EDIT: You may have also noticed in my picture is the team year stuff. I have been building this since 2006, so it's capable of simulating games against teams from different eras (well up to 6 years ago).

 

[hunters]

Looks impressive and an extraordinary amount of work! Pretty sure it won't be any more accurate than say going all home teams but if you're having fun doing it then I say good job, keep it up.

 

[Jono078]

Round 6
Cronulla Sharks 16 20 St George Illawarra Dragons
Newcastle Knights 26 10 Parramatta Eels
Gold Coast Titans 24 22 Sydney Roosters
South Sydney Rabbitohs 8 28 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
Wests Tigers 38 12 Brisbane Broncos
Canberra Raiders 16 28 New Zealand Warriors
Manly Sea Eagles 24 14 Penrith Panthers
North Qld Cowboys 14 21 Melbourne Storm

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 6 6 0 172 94 78 12
2nd Wests Tigers 6 6 0 162 92 70 12
3rd Storm 6 5 1 138 114 24 10
4th Cowboys 6 4 2 136 102 34 8
5th Warriors 6 4 2 146 114 32 8
6th Bulldogs 6 4 2 154 122 32 8
7th Rabbitohs 6 3 3 113 125 -12 6
8th Sea Eagles 6 3 3 111 123 -12 6
9th Raiders 6 3 3 107 132 -25 6
10th Dragons 6 2 4 114 123 -9 4
11th Panthers 6 2 4 128 142 -14 4
12th Broncos 6 2 4 99 145 -46 4
13th Roosters 6 1 5 122 138 -16 2
14th Eels 6 1 5 102 136 -34 2
15th Titans 6 1 5 116 150 -34 2
16th Sharks 6 1 5 98 166 -68 2

 

[Jono078]

Round 7
St George Illawarra Dragons 20 24 Newcastle Knights
Manly Sea Eagles 24 18 Gold Coast Titans
Sydney Roosters 24 25 North Qld Cowboys
Penrith Panthers 27 20 Wests Tigers
Melbourne Storm 24 18 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
New Zealand Warriors 21 20 South Sydney Rabbitohs
Cronulla Sharks 16 16 Parramatta Eels
Brisbane Broncos 26 18 Canberra Raiders

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 7 7 0 196 114 82 14
2nd Wests Tigers 7 6 1 182 119 63 12
3rd Storm 7 6 1 162 132 30 12
4th Cowboys 7 5 2 161 126 35 10
5th Warriors 7 5 2 167 134 33 10
6th Bulldogs 7 4 3 172 146 26 8
7th Sea Eagles 7 4 3 111 123 -12 8
8th Panthers 7 3 4 155 162 -7 6
9th Rabbitohs 7 3 4 133 146 -13 6
10th Raiders 7 3 4 125 158 -33 6
11th Broncos 7 3 4 125 163 -38 6
12th Dragons 7 2 5 134 147 -13 4
13th Eels 7 1 1 5 118 152 -34 3
14th Sharks 7 1 1 5 114 182 -68 3
15th Roosters 7 1 6 146 163 -17 2
16th Titans 7 1 6 116 150 -34 2

 

[Jono078]

Round 8
Brisbane Broncos 20 14 Gold Coast Titans
St George Illawarra Dragons 28 16 Sydney Roosters
South Sydney Rabbitohs 18 20 North Qld Cowboys
Melbourne Storm 22 12 New Zealand Warriors
Canberra Raiders 22 23 Cronulla Sharks
Newcastle Knights 20 22 Penrith Panthers
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 24 18 Manly Sea Eagles
Parramatta Eels 20 34 Wests Tigers

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 8 7 1 216 136 80 14
2nd Wests Tigers 8 7 1 216 139 77 14
3rd Storm 8 7 1 184 144 40 14
4th Cowboys 8 6 2 181 144 37 12
5th Bulldogs 8 5 3 196 164 32 10
6th Warriors 8 5 3 179 156 23 10
7th Panthers 8 4 4 177 182 -5 8
8th Sea Eagles 8 4 4 129 147 -18 8
9th Broncos 8 4 4 145 177 -32 8
10th Dragons 8 3 5 162 163 -1 6
11th Rabbitohs 8 3 5 151 166 -15 6
12th Raiders 8 3 5 147 181 -34 6
13th Sharks 8 2 1 5 137 204 -67 5
14th Eels 8 1 1 6 138 186 -48 3
15th Roosters 8 1 7 162 191 -29 2
16th Titans 8 1 7 130 170 -40 2

 

[AuDragon]

For a highly ranked team, the Broncos sure are getting flogged on a regular base. What are you feeding them? :lol:

 

[nrlnrl]

You've obviously put in a lot of effort, but why bother releasing these "predictions" for the first 8 rounds now when you don't even know the players involved for round 1. Or have you devised a way of knowing which players will be injured / suspended & then those that are out of form or just not selected ?

 

[Jono078]

You've obviously put in a lot of effort, but why bother releasing these "predictions" for the first 8 rounds now when you don't even know the players involved for round 1. Or have you devised a way of knowing which players will be injured / suspended & then those that are out of form or just not selected ?

Nope, to answer that, I've basically picked the best possible 17 based on ratings from that teams 2012 roster.

Injuries arent taking into account. So it's basically the teams top 17 each week being simulated.

I get the feeling people are taking this a bit too serious and are actually getting angry over it?

It's just for bit of fun and another way of providing a prediction for the season.

 

[skeepe]

Don't listen to the haters Jono, keep going with it.

 

[nrlnrl]

Nope, to answer that, I've basically picked the best possible 17 based on ratings from that teams 2012 roster.

Injuries arent taking into account. So it's basically the teams top 17 each week being simulated.

I get the feeling people are taking this a bit too serious and are actually getting angry over it?

It's just for bit of fun and another way of providing a prediction for the season.

I hope your computer didn't have me as one of the angry ones - then I would be angry.

 

[Didgi]

:lol: People are actually getting cranky about this? f**king hell. From what I saw, last season's looked more accurate than most people's ladder predictions.

My only single comment is if you're factoring in coaching ability the Knights (and some other teams) should be lower if the ratings in opening post are player ratings only. I assume you would've thought about that.

 

[Jono078]

Yeah, I'm only realizing that as I'm going on with this, the coaches seem to be having a big impact right now.

I can post the coaches ratings later on when I return home if you guys want.

But the top few are like this

1 Bellamy
2 Bennett
3 Hasler
4 Sheens

Furner and Kearney are lowest rated I think.

 

[Jono078]

Round 9
Parramatta Eels 22 20 Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
New Zealand Warriors 30 14 Brisbane Broncos
Manly Sea Eagles 18 24 Canberra Raiders
North Qld Cowboys 18 20 St George Illawarra Dragons
South Sydney Rabbitohs 20 20 Cronulla Sharks
Gold Coast Titans 20 26 Wests Tigers
Penrith Panthers 14 26 Melbourne Storm
Sydney Roosters 16 20 Newcastle Knights

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Knights 9 8 1 236 152 84 16
2nd Wests Tigers 9 8 1 242 159 83 16
3rd Storm 9 8 1 210 158 52 16
4th Warriors 9 6 3 209 170 39 12
5th Cowboys 9 6 3 199 164 35 12
6th Bulldogs 9 5 4 216 186 30 10
7th Dragons 9 4 5 182 181 1 8
8th Panthers 9 4 5 191 208 -17 8
9th Sea Eagles 9 4 5 147 171 -24 8
10th Raiders 9 4 5 171 199 -28 8
11th Broncos 9 4 5 159 207 -48 8
12th Rabbitohs 9 3 1 5 171 186 -15 7
13th Sharks 9 2 2 5 157 224 -67 6
14th Eels 9 2 1 6 160 206 -46 5
15th Roosters 9 1 8 178 211 -33 2
16th Titans 9 1 8 150 196 -46 2

 

[Ausguy]

the sharks in the last 3 rounds have had 2 draws and a 1 pt win... highly unlikely

 

[Tonearm Terrorwrist]

Lol Jono acting like people care

 

[Jono078]

Round 10
Brisbane Broncos 16 18 Manly Sea Eagles
Cronulla Sharks 18 20 Melbourne Storm
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs 30 14 Gold Coast Titans
Canberra Raiders 12 24 Parramatta Eels
New Zealand Warriors 24 16 Sydney Roosters
Newcastle Knights 22 24 North Qld Cowboys
Penrith Panthers 14 18 St George Illawarra Dragons

Team Played Won Draw Loss For Agn Diff Pts
1st Wests Tigers 9 8 1 242 159 83 18
2nd Storm 10 9 1 230 176 54 18
3rd Knights 10 8 2 258 176 82 16
4th Warriors 10 7 3 233 186 47 14
5th Cowboys 10 7 3 223 186 37 14
6th Bulldogs 10 6 4 246 200 46 12
7th Dragons 10 5 5 200 195 5 10
8th Sea Eagles 10 5 5 165 187 -22 10
9th Rabbitohs 9 3 1 5 171 186 -15 9
10th Panthers 10 4 6 205 226 -21 8
11th Raiders 10 4 6 183 223 -40 8
12th Broncos 10 4 6 175 225 -50 8
13th Eels 10 3 1 6 184 218 -34 7
14th Sharks 10 2 2 6 175 244 -69 6
15th Roosters 10 1 9 194 235 -41 2
16th Titans 10 1 9 164 226 -62 2