There are Manly fans all over the country and plenty in NZ. I (unfortunately) live in the western suburbs and since moving here from the beaches last year I've been amazed by the number of Manly fans out this way. Even my neighbour has a Manly flag on her car. There were around 32K at the preliminary finals in '07 and '08 despite being against NZ and NQ so I have little doubt that a prelim against Brisbane will draw even more fans. People want to compare Manly finals against out of state clubs to finals matches between large Sydney clubs like the Bulldogs v Parra in 2009. They cannot be compared. 35,000 would be a good result this week. I was going to go but I can't afford to go to both this game and the grand final so I'm banking on Manly winning and I'll be buying GF tickets as soon as they go on sale.
I think you've missed that, unless the NRL.com sale hasn't been yet?
The 200k northern beaches population argument is ridiculous. That's like saying all Chelsea fans come from that small part of south west London. Any crowd less than 30k for you is terrible, and you should accept that no excuses.