McInnes - 80 min hooker?

[The Damo]

Not everyone is interested in stats - but I think there’s at least food for thought in them. They don’t tell you everything, the eye test is important too - but they can contribute to some debates.
In this case there’s a theory that McInnes performance diminished last year as fatigue set in. So to see if that shows up in his output I checked his total runs, run metres and line break assists for the first 12 rounds vs the next 12 rounds.

First 12
Total
Runs 72
Metres 720
line break assist 5
Avg
Runs 6
Metres 60
Assists 0.41

Second 12
Total
Runs 81
Metres 790
Assists 4
Avg
Runs 6.75
Metres 65.5
Assists 0.33

Interestingly he actually ran more often, for more total metres in the second half of the season than he did in the first. So by that metric at least his output actually improved. Which doesn’t really support the fatigue theory. Not conclusive of course, but worth considering.

Try and line break assists can be tricky, if you get a line break assist and a try is scored it’s recorded as 1 lba and 1 ta. If a try isn’t scored it’s just 1 lba.
So I’ve only counted line break assists. And he produced only 1 more in the first 12 than the second. Which doesn’t seem significant either.

So I guess the question is - if he was negatively effected by fatigue, which part of his game was it? Is it something measurable? If not, what part of his game went backwards?

 

[Dragonslayer]

Not everyone is interested in stats - but I think there’s at least food for thought in them. They don’t tell you everything, the eye test is important too - but they can contribute to some debates.
In this case there’s a theory that McInnes performance diminished last year as fatigue set in. So to see if that shows up in his output I checked his total runs, run metres and line break assists for the first 12 rounds vs the next 12 rounds.

First 12
Total
Runs 72
Metres 720
line break assist 5
Avg
Runs 6
Metres 60
Assists 0.41

Second 12
Total
Runs 81
Metres 790
Assists 4
Avg
Runs 6.75
Metres 65.5
Assists 0.33

Interestingly he actually ran more often, for more total metres in the second half of the season than he did in the first. So by that metric at least his output actually improved. Which doesn’t really support the fatigue theory. Not conclusive of course, but worth considering.

Try and line break assists can be tricky, if you get a line break assist and a try is scored it’s recorded as 1 lba and 1 ta. If a try isn’t scored it’s just 1 lba.
So I’ve only counted line break assists. And he produced only 1 more in the first 12 than the second. Which doesn’t seem significant either.

So I guess the question is - if he was negatively effected by fatigue, which part of his game was it? Is it something measurable? If not, what part of his game went backwards?

It maybe interesting to see tackles made v missed tackles for the same period

 

[The Damo]

It maybe interesting to see tackles made v missed tackles for the same period

Yeah I agree, I thought of that half way through and figured I’d come back to it later.

 

[possm]

Not everyone is interested in stats - but I think there’s at least food for thought in them. They don’t tell you everything, the eye test is important too - but they can contribute to some debates.
In this case there’s a theory that McInnes performance diminished last year as fatigue set in. So to see if that shows up in his output I checked his total runs, run metres and line break assists for the first 12 rounds vs the next 12 rounds.

First 12
Total
Runs 72
Metres 720
line break assist 5
Avg
Runs 6
Metres 60
Assists 0.41

Second 12
Total
Runs 81
Metres 790
Assists 4
Avg
Runs 6.75
Metres 65.5
Assists 0.33

Interestingly he actually ran more often, for more total metres in the second half of the season than he did in the first. So by that metric at least his output actually improved. Which doesn’t really support the fatigue theory. Not conclusive of course, but worth considering.

Try and line break assists can be tricky, if you get a line break assist and a try is scored it’s recorded as 1 lba and 1 ta. If a try isn’t scored it’s just 1 lba.
So I’ve only counted line break assists. And he produced only 1 more in the first 12 than the second. Which doesn’t seem significant either.

So I guess the question is - if he was negatively effected by fatigue, which part of his game was it? Is it something measurable? If not, what part of his game went backwards?

Interesting why you did not include defensive stats and passes from dummy half.

 

[BennyV]

For mine, his pass effectiveness and impact in tackles dropped, but that’s hard to measure.

The runs and metres is interesting though, it certainly doesn’t seem consistent with the eye test!

 

[watatank]

I'd be interested to see how the run metres and tackles stack up with other 80 minute hookers

 

[The Damo]

Interesting why you did not include defensive stats and passes from dummy half.

3 kids impacts the amount of time i get to play with footy stats. I plan to get to defensive ones.

 

[The Damo]

I'd be interested to see how the run metres and tackles stack up with other 80 minute hookers

From memory the only hooker he was behind for run metres was Cook. For tackles he was behind Friend, and averaged about 5-6 more a game than Cook and Smith.

 

[watatank]

From memory the only hooker he was behind for run metres was Cook. For tackles he was behind Friend, and averaged about 5-6 more a game than Cook and Smith.

Cheers. Would also be interested in actual runs compared to others, perception is that he doesn't run very much or ran less as time went on

 

[possm]

3 kids impacts the amount of time i get to play with footy stats. I plan to get to defensive ones.

Ok, great. I have 5 kids and 5 grand kids. Anyway the stats also do not show how McInnes fades towards the end of a half which does have an effect on the results of a game.

 

[giboz71]

I’m glad someone actually has taken the time to put measurable stats to assist with a discussion.

Thank you Damo.

Just my 2c, the fatigue factor that many people bang on about is overstated and is not backed up by stats. The McInnes analysis here being a good example.

No doubt our form drops off in later rounds, but to what extent fatigue and over burdening our forwards has to do with it? Not really sure. Didn’t someone do a comparison with other teams and our forwards minutes were in line with most others I remember?

More likely, teams improve and work us out and Mary and his gang don’t have the smarts to adjust.

 

[Como Connection]

I’m glad someone actually has taken the time to put measurable stats to assist with a discussion.

Thank you Damo.

Just my 2c, the fatigue factor that many people bang on about is overstated and is not backed up by stats. The McInnes analysis here being a good example.

No doubt our form drops off in later rounds, but to what extent fatigue and over burdening our forwards has to do with it? Not really sure. Didn’t someone do a comparison with other teams and our forwards minutes were in line with most others I remember?

More likely, teams improve and work us out and Mary and his gang don’t have the smarts to adjust.

Sounds about right, alas I'm not sure the game plan will improve.
CC

 

[RufusRex]

The one thing that doenst show is the width and speed of service over time.

McInnes either by game plan or ability plays very short which makes our collisions hard and tight to the ruck. Adds to the attrition of our middle players significantly.

 

[j0nesy]

Not everyone is interested in stats - but I think there’s at least food for thought in them. They don’t tell you everything, the eye test is important too - but they can contribute to some debates.
In this case there’s a theory that McInnes performance diminished last year as fatigue set in. So to see if that shows up in his output I checked his total runs, run metres and line break assists for the first 12 rounds vs the next 12 rounds.

First 12
Total
Runs 72
Metres 720
line break assist 5
Avg
Runs 6
Metres 60
Assists 0.41

Second 12
Total
Runs 81
Metres 790
Assists 4
Avg
Runs 6.75
Metres 65.5
Assists 0.33

Interestingly he actually ran more often, for more total metres in the second half of the season than he did in the first. So by that metric at least his output actually improved. Which doesn’t really support the fatigue theory. Not conclusive of course, but worth considering.

Try and line break assists can be tricky, if you get a line break assist and a try is scored it’s recorded as 1 lba and 1 ta. If a try isn’t scored it’s just 1 lba.
So I’ve only counted line break assists. And he produced only 1 more in the first 12 than the second. Which doesn’t seem significant either.

So I guess the question is - if he was negatively effected by fatigue, which part of his game was it? Is it something measurable? If not, what part of his game went backwards?

Thanks for sharing, it would be interesting to see his first half stats compared with his 2nd half stats.

FTR I feel he’s one of the few truly capable 80min hookers going around. It was our front rowers and second rowers that suffered the most from Mary’s lack of rotation and poor use of the bench.

 

[possm]

Tackling for 80min and passing from dummy half takes a lot of energy, that is why McInnes does not run often during a game.

 

[gitano]

Tackling for 80min and passing from dummy half takes a lot of energy, that is why McInnes does not run often during a game.

No. He runs when there's 1 or 0 markers. Nothing at all to do with energy.

 

[giboz71]

Thanks for sharing, it would be interesting to see his first half stats compared with his 2nd half stats.

FTR I feel he’s one of the few truly capable 80min hookers going around. It was our front rowers and second rowers that suffered the most from Mary’s lack of rotation and poor use of the bench.

The Origin factor had a lot to do with it as well. JDB, Sims and Vaughan had never endured a rep season before and JDB was busted anyway and shouldn’t have been playing.

Might be a different story this year. Only Friz and Vaughan would be a lock for Origin at this stage so hopefully we won’t be decimated like we were last year.

 

[The Damo]

Tackling for 80min and passing from dummy half takes a lot of energy, that is why McInnes does not run often during a game.

The point is that Cam does run often. Last year he ran more often than every hooker except Cook. And he ran more often in the second half of the season than the first. It is not true that Cam doesn’t run much, or that he runs less as the season progresses.

 

[The Damo]

Thanks for sharing, it would be interesting to see his first half stats compared with his 2nd half stats.

FTR I feel he’s one of the few truly capable 80min hookers going around. It was our front rowers and second rowers that suffered the most from Mary’s lack of rotation and poor use of the bench.

It would, I don’t know whether that kind of detailed stat is publicly available. But it would be interesting. And yeah I tend to agree he is capable. Doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be good to rotate him tactically in some games though.
And yeah, Marys bench use sucked last year, but the single biggest detriment was backing forwards up after origin.

 

[BLM01]

I’m glad someone actually has taken the time to put measurable stats to assist with a discussion.

Thank you Damo.

Just my 2c, the fatigue factor that many people bang on about is overstated and is not backed up by stats. The McInnes analysis here being a good example.

No doubt our form drops off in later rounds, but to what extent fatigue and over burdening our forwards has to do with it? Not really sure. Didn’t someone do a comparison with other teams and our forwards minutes were in line with most others I remember?

More likely, teams improve and work us out and Mary and his gang don’t have the smarts to adjust.

This statement or reply is closest to the mark IMO. That fatigue line was from the media in regards Origin and suited Mary to run with it as an excuse and something to say we can fix that for next year and every team can be affected by the Origin thing as a mask for other things.

It was form. We started as hard as we could with no injuries until origin and it was before then we were worked out by other teams in regards to defense and attacking structures that changed from 2017.

If you really pull the season apart the 1st team to expose us was Souths in Round 5 (2nd half) where we clung on to win as they exposed our right edge. The Warriors Round 7. We got up and were lucky in the end as the 50 / 50's went our way in ANZAC day although the scoreline does not show it and were at our peak in Round 9 against Storm?.
From Round 10 onwards we bumbled and fumbled and spluttered until the Brisbane game in the semi.
Not fatigue..the real stats. No back up or plan to change was the real issue.

Back to your article DAMO...,McInnes you are correct, he just fell in line with the teams whole performance. His efforts for a season are always monumental and he will do it again this year barring injury.

If there is a side this year that I think maybe starting to be exposed and form may start to dip..dare I say it Melbourne.
From 20-0 down they got all the rub if the green after that from the boys in the middle. It helps when you are at home.
But compare us last year to the Roosters this year. They are truly a level above everybody ATM and so is their salary but an argument for another day
I'd sign their 4th string winger Matt Ikalavu (whatever his name) is..cant he leap and that Kiwi who busted the line in golden point in a heartbeat for not much money yet.