Melbourne at $3.55 to win the Premiership. That is way too short considering the run home they have.
I'm going to bet a $1000 lay against Melbourne on Betfair to win a lazy $3600
I'm sorry, I don't understand this post.
If their odds are "too short" doesn't that mean you think they should be longer, i.e. higher than $3.55, and therefore betting on them is not wise?
Is the run home good or bad? If you say the odds are too short, that suggests bad, but if you will put on the bet, that suggests good.
Anyway, $3.55 odds suggests they are about a 25% probability to win, according to the bookies, which seems like they are indeed short odds. They are a great team in great form, but the 3 other top 4 teams have to be a good chance too, at the end of the year, assuming nothing goes wrong with Melbourne between now and the end of the main season.
And teams 5-8 have to be some chance as well, even with the finals system giving the top 4 the main advantage.
And Melbourne have to win 3 games in a row in the finals against good sides (either 3 straight or lose 1 then win 3 straight) and winning 3 in a row against other good teams is not such a sure thing.
