Yep, and I'll give you $3.60 odds. And $3.55 for him to have the money. That way I'm sure to win...
Oh wait, no I won't. Sorry, can't do that.
RLForever, please tell us you are winding us up. These guys are having a go at you, but seriously, you can't throw your money away without understanding what you are doing.
You must realise that if the odds were $3.60 for Melbourne to not win (using odds in the same sense that they are $3.55 odd on to win) that no business could run doing that- you would bet each way and win big every time. Plus you need to understand Betfair charge commission (in a rather complicated formula, too, it is not straightforward, though it is more complicated for regular/big betters).
Sometimes if you go through different agencies for different odds you can bet each way and make very tiny margins (a few % over a long time, and you need to be careful about covering draws/abandoned matches/scratchings etc) but it is rare. If you could do it all the time it would beat real estate/ shares as an investment and everyone would do it.
Some of these guys here have described lay betting quite well, and your actual odds really are around $1.35 counting commission. That might not be such a bad bet, but please think about what you are doing and realise you can lose out, and be prepared to lose the bet.
I'd assumed the post about the 50% probability because there are two "outcomes" was a gee up, but its nice to see that is true.
Still, I work with mathematicians every day, and one person (not one of the people I work with) insisted to these mathematicians that there was a 50% probability of tossing 3 heads on 3 coin tosses because it either would or wouldn't happen. They wouldn't accept the advice of about 10 mathematicians with hundreds of combined years experience doing math, and bothered several University Maths lecturers about it as well and wouldn't believe them either. Probability is very hard for most people to understand.
