Hmm not sure what to make of this. WarriorPoet seems to be changing his defence here. He is now claiming the odds were actually in his favour whereas last day phase he told us it was a straight coin flip/50% chance of being correct. It's happened before but I'm very wary of the misread my role PM defence, especially in this case where you would think it's something pretty straight forward to read and comprehend.
With that being said, he has roleclaimed Drew, which is a silly move under most circumstances if it were not true. We have town as FFB aligned, so it's likely that Drew-sta would be town, of course. However, no town actually knows what characters have been picked for the mafia faction. soc could be having a laugh by making some of the FFB's biggest fans of Mis as his lovers, in which Drew would definitely be a mafia candidate. Unlikely though.
Anyway, some food for thought...
Might get role blocked, more likely killed. As to why he would reveal he found mafia, well, because they're mafia, that's the one time you do reveal.
At this point I'm sure our actual investigator will/has/plans to check out WP but even if WP comes up town there's no point saying anything unless he actually finds mafia.
I see what you're saying in regards to "why do it" but think about that for a second, unless they already know who the investigator us (highly unlikely) then WP making this play doesn't make sense because it outs him right under the investigation microscope. WP had a 50/50 shot, and in a game where there's only 4 mafia, taking one out early is a killer blow. The play makes way less sense if he's mafia.
Also, why would you reveal you found a mafia if you're only to get role blocked the next few nights?
This would be a great ploy for a Godfather type role from traditional games. i.e, Don, who turns up as town when investigated, and has no action. He is checked out and then considered town. Even better if he has protection because then a lynch is wasted. If people don't trust him, he is roleblocked instead of having someone in his mafia roleblocked. It's also a decent ploy for town too though just to make things more difficult. His crappy investigation is roleblocked instead of a useful action.
Anyway, that's my musings, and above all else the pertinent facts for me are that a) nobody had challenged WP's Derp-sta claim and b) we have a FFB aligned faction. No way Drew would be left out of the game, so the reasonable conclusion is town for me.
Of course, that could all change once we turn up one mafia character. I'm thinking they are just people that Mis has referenced in his time here, named by characteristics ("The Ex") or by region ("Cute German Girl").
