MM's Picks - Elimination Finals
Tuesday, February 13, 2007 - 11:57 AM
Matt McQuade previews all this week's 2007 Quarter Finals action beginning on Wednesday with Townsville and Singapore at the Swamp.
Townsville Crocodiles (5) vs Singapore Slingers (8)
Wednesday 14 February, Townsville Entertainment Centre, 6:40pm (local)
Townsville Starters
EJ Rowland, John Rillie, Brad Newley, Larry Abney, Greg Vanderjagt
Bench
Daniel Egan, Kelvin Robertson, Andrew Rice, Drew Williamson, Michael Cedar
Singapore Starters
Brad Davidson, Mike Helms, Aaron Trahair, Ben Knight, Ben Melmeth
Bench
Pero Vasiljevic, Larry Davidson, Jeremy Kench, Eban Hyams
Final Standings
Crocodiles 19-14 (5th), Slingers 13-20 (8th)
Stat Leaders
Points: Newley (TOW) 22.4ppg; Helms (SIN) 22.7ppg
Rebounds: Abney (TOW) 9.1rpg; Knight (SIN) 8.4rpg
Assists: Rillie (TOW) 4.8apg; Davidson (SIN) 3.4apg
Regular Season Series
Crocodiles won 2-1
Crocodiles 120 Slingers 101 @ Townsville 29/11/06
Slingers 114 Crocodiles 103 @ Singapore 04/01/07
Crocodiles 140 Slingers 100 @ Townsville 13/01/07
Since the Crocodiles demolished the Slingers by 40 back in mid-January, theyve struggled to find wins, going just 2-4 in the run home and falling into this dangerous fifth position.
Not that they havent played well apart from a terrible loss to the Hawks in Wollongong theyve been more than competitive in every game and gave Brisbane everything they could handle last Saturday at the Swamp before falling by a single bucket in one of the seasons great battles.
That 130-128 defeat was obviously disappointing, but a perfect lead-in to a playoff game given the fact it was played with remarkable intensity and passion, and to get closer to Brisbane than anyone else had in about three months will give this team a massive jolt of confidence heading into the postseason.
The Crocs Big Three of John Rillie (19.1ppg, 6.4rpg, 4.8apg, 53% FG, 47% 3PT FG, 87% FT), Brad Newley (22.4ppg, 5.4rpg, 3.2apg, 1.2spg, 41% 3PT FG) and Larry Abney (21.0ppg, 9.1rpg, 1.1spg, 50% FG) has been consistently excellent this season and as they go, so goes Townsville. But it will be the supporting cast EJ Rowland, Daniel Egan and Greg Vanderjagt that will determine how far the Crocs progress in this postseason.
Singapore did a fantastic job to make the playoffs in their debut season becoming the leagues first international franchise to accomplish the feat.
Despite all the inherent problems associated with running a team in a country where they have struggled to gain acceptance, the Slingers persevered, became a solid ballclub at home and beat their fair share of quality opponents.
They improved the longer the season went on and grabbed their postseason opportunity with both hands, winning the key games when they had to and pushing more talented teams all the way on many occasions.
Mike Helms (22.7ppg, 4.9rpg, 2.4apg) was the standout offensive threat, a weapon with unlimited range capable of dropping 40 on any given night. His main supports were injured import Marquin Chandler, who is out the rest of the season with a knee injury and forwards Ben Knight (14.8ppg, 8.4rpg, 54% FG, 82% FT) and Ben Melmeth (13.0ppg, 7.1rpg, 2.0apg, 49% FG), both of whom are going to have to produce something special if the Slingers are going to upset the Crocs at the Swamp.
The last time Singapore ventured into Townsville, they were blown away. Newley put on a show for a visiting NBA scout, dropping 40 on the helpless Slinger defence; the Crocs shot 60% from the field and outrebounded Singapore 46-27. Granted the Slingers were on the back-end of a tough three-game set, but they were never in the game and that loss is still pretty fresh in the memory.
If they want to win this one, it has to start at the defensive end of the floor. That means getting back in transition against a team that is awesome on the fast break, getting a hand up to the perimeter shooters and allowing the Crocs only one shot if the Slingers let Townsville control the offensive glass this thing will be over quickly.
Losing Chandler and his 20 points a game is a massive blow. It may be that McLeod feels the only way to compete with the Crocs is to throw caution to the wind and just turn this into an up and down shootout, but without his second import on deck its going to be very tough to stay with such an offensively potent squad for all 48 minutes.
Townsville want to run, they want to play a wide-open style, and with Rowlands explosive speed creating opportunities for the likes of JR and Newley in transition added to Abneys relentlessness on the boards, it spells huge trouble for the Slingers.
Of all the first round games, this one is the easiest to call. The Crocs have got to guard against looking ahead to a potential battle with Sydney, but I dont think that will be an issue. Theyll come into the Swamp looking to take care of business, and theyll end Singapores courageous first season with a blowout victory.
Prediction: Crocodiles by 25
Cairns Taipans (6) vs South Dragons (7)
Thursday 15 February, Cairns Convention Centre, 6:40pm (local)
Cairns Starters
Darnell Mee, Anthony Stewart, Gary Boodnikoff, Martin Cattalini, Kevin Owens
Bench
Luke Martin, Damon Thornton, Aaron Grabau, Kane Oakley, Matt Smith
Dragons Starters
Shane Heal, Kavossy Franklin, Jacob Holmes, Rosell Ellis, Frank Drmic
Bench
Joe Ingles, Adam Quick, Matt Shanahan, Brent Hobba, Ash Cannan
Final Standings
Taipans 17-16 (6th), Dragons 15-18 (7th)
Stat Leaders
Points: Cattalini (CAI) 25.3ppg; Franklin (SOU) 21.5ppg
Rebounds: Owens (CAI) 8.8rpg; Ellis (SOU) 11.3rpg
Assists: Mee (CAI) 4.9apg; Heal (SOU) 4.6apg
Regular Season Series
Taipans won 2-1
Dragons 96 Taipans 86 @ Ballarat 29/10/06
Taipans 126 Dragons 100 @ Cairns 09/12/06
Taipans 115 Dragons 103 @ Geelong 14/01/07
The Cairns Convention Centre has been a fortress for the Taipans over the past couple of years, but the team took some hits there in 2006/07, at one point losing three in a row something you wouldnt have believed coming into the season.
Cairns had their fair share of ups and downs in 2006/07, a campaign that promised a great deal but didnt deliver as much as it perhaps should have, especially after the Snakes outstanding 2005/06 season when they reached the semi-finals for the first time in franchise history.
Still, they were a better than .500 team, albeit just barely. And they were led by one of the leagues best players, Martin Cattalini (25.3ppg, 6.7rpg, 2.3apg, 51% FG, 86% FT) who upped his scoring average by a massive six points a game from the previous season, had 51 in a memorable performance against the Bullets and basically carried this team most of the season.
Darnell Mee (13.8ppg, 4.9apg, 4.6rpg, 1.5spg) showed signs of slowing down at various times but picked up his play late in the piece and Aaron Grabau (12.5ppg, 4.0rpg) was solid and reliable all year. What coach Alan Black needed was better production from his imports, Damon Thornton and Kevin Owens, neither of whom was as effective as advertised.
As for the Dragons, an 0-5 start was an inauspicious beginning to a debut season that was greatly hyped, what with a former NBA All Star installed as head coach and the centre a former first round draft pick of the Golden State Warriors.
But after the decision was made to put Shane Heal in charge as player-coach and include undersized workhorse Rosell Ellis, the team gelled; players were given clearly defined roles and South became a unit to be respected, if not feared.
They got 9,000 to Vodafone Arena to see them upend the Tigers in a classic derby game, blew out Sydney and took Perth right to the wire on all three occasions. The Dragons were a fun team to watch this season and brought back excitement to Victorian basketball.
Heal (19.4ppg, 4.6apg, 2.8rpg, 82% FT) juggled his dual responsibilities as player and coach extremely well and showed it was still possible in this day and age to perform both roles. Kavossy Franklin (21.5ppg, 4.4rpg, 2.7apg, 79% FT) was as tough in the low block, as gutsy at the defensive end and as streaky from the perimeter as he always has been in this league. Ellis (17.8ppg, 11.3rpg, 1.4spg, 1.1bpg, 55% FG) led the league in rebounding in a tremendous effort and despite his lack of size was a tough match-up for every big man in the NBL. And of course who could forget the spectacular Joe Ingles (15.3ppg, 4.8rpg, 3.0apg) whose off the charts athleticism and fearless attitude endeared him to crowds all over the Philips Championship.
South is coming off an extraordinary 149-147 shootout win over Adelaide, and Heal admitted the defence has to improve in a hurry if they want to extend their postseason run past a single game. The Taipans figure to get stops on their own floor can the Dragons do the same?
Cairns best option is to slow the game down and make it a classic playoff halfcourt grind real smashmouth basketball. If they attempt to run with the Dragons, theyll be falling into a trap, because South is great in transition and have the kind of players who thrive in that kind of environment.
One issue with South is going to be their overall lack of depth, especially up front, although if Brent Hobba steps up theyll be in good shape. Nonetheless, that is something the Taipans can exploit, and Id look for them to be extremely physical with the Dragons in an attempt to wear them out and then let the Cat go to work.
This one is extremely difficult to call. The pressure is all on Cairns because they are expected to win a strange position to be in for a team that has been an underdog for years and Heal figures to tell his players to just go out and have fun given they really have nothing to lose.
In the end, Im going with the Taipans, with not much conviction, and if only for the fact they have homecourt advantage. This could very easily be the first upset of the 2006/07 postseason, but I do think Cairns will just squeak by against a gutty Dragons.
Prediction: Taipans by 4
Sydney Kings (4) vs Townsville Crocodiles (5) OR Singapore Slingers (8)
Friday 16 February, Sydney Entertainment Centre, 7:40pm (local)
Sydney Starters
Ed Scott, Luke Kendall, Mark Worthington, Russell Hinder, Ian Crosswhite
Bench
Jerome Beasley, Ian Crosswhite, Jason Smith, Brad Sheridan, Cameron Tovey, BJ Carter
Townsville Starters
EJ Rowland, John Rillie, Brad Newley, Larry Abney, Greg Vanderjagt
Bench
Daniel Egan, Kelvin Robertson, Andrew Rice, Drew Williamson, Michael Cedar
Singapore Starters
Brad Davidson, Mike Helms, Aaron Trahair, Ben Knight, Ben Melmeth
Bench
Pero Vasiljevic, Larry Davidson, Jeremy Kench, Eban Hyams
Final Standings
Kings 20-13 (4th), Crocodiles 19-14 (5th), Slingers 13-20 (8th)
Stat Leaders
Points: Worthington (SYD) 14.9ppg; Newley (TOW) 22.4ppg; Helms (SIN) 22.7ppg
Rebounds: Worthington (SYD) 6.9rpg; Abney (TOW) 9.1rpg; Knight (SIN) 8.4rpg
Assists: Scott (SYD) 4.4apg; Rillie (TOW) 4.8apg; Davidson (SIN) 3.4apg
Regular Season Series
Vs Crocodiles Crocodiles won 2-1
Crocodiles 117 Kings 103 @ Townsville 22/09/06
Crocodiles 115 Kings 111 @ Townsville 13/10/06
Kings 116 Crocodiles 97 @ Sydney 03/11/06
Vs Slingers Kings won 2-1
Kings 90 Slingers 83 @ Singapore 29/10/06
Slingers 96 Kings 88 @ Singapore 10/01/07
Kings 102 Slingers 76 @ Sydney 11/02/07
Its been an unusual season for the Sydney Kings. For the first time in five years they didnt win the Minor Premiership and just barely made the Top Four.
Thats an extraordinary effort when you think about it. Four seasons, four minor titles, three championships. And even though they have won 20 games in a season for the fifth consecutive time another league record they have set the bar so high that some might consider this campaign a disappointment.
They were blown out by Melbourne and the South Dragons, suffered a complete meltdown in Perth and endured the indignity of an embarrassing loss to cellar-dwellers West Sydney. They had injury problems, import problems, and were the worst offensive team in the league over the second half of the season.
But despite all that, they allowed the second fewest points of any team in the NBL, and gave up 100 just once in their last seven games as they geared up for the playoffs. Mind you, it wasnt a consistent defensive effort all season, but they have certainly jacked up the intensity of late and are a team their coach describes as a scary proposition for all those remaining in this final drive.
Mark Worthington (14.9ppg, 6.9rpg) led the team in scoring and rebounding as he continued his rise to elite status. He figures to be an All Star within the next couple of years. Ed Scott (13.2ppg, 4.4apg, 1.3spg) proved to be exactly what the team required when he replaced EJ Rowland as the import point guard midway through the season. And Russell Hinder (8.1ppg, 5.1rpg, 1.2bpg) has turned into a low post force since new import big man Jerome Beasley came on board.
The big concern for the Kings heading into this game is the health of their captain and inspirational leader Jason Smith, whose shooting hand may be broken after a training mishap. He will play no matter the circumstances, but without his perimeter scoring the Kings are questionable from the outside.
Townsville is the team everyone expects to play Sydney in this one, and if that comes to pass it will be one hell of a battle. EJ Rowland comes up against the team who dumped him mid-season, John Rillie returns to the place where he doesnt have happy memories after losing a Grand Final as a Razorback in 2004 and Brad Newley will be out to impress the national coach once again.
If its Singapore, the Kings will feel they have the Slingers number. They were way too strong last week in Sydney, and outside the brilliant Mike Helms, Singapore doesnt have the talent or depth necessary to get past Sydney at the Kingdome.
Jason Smith will be a massive loss if he cant play, and Townsville would believe that without Sydneys captain hounding JR all night they would gain the advantage. However, no matter who it is, I think the Kings will play enough defence and make just enough shots to get past either the Crocs or Slingers but a Townsville game would be a thriller, no question.
Prediction: Kings by 5 against the Crocodiles
Kings by 17 against the Slingers
Perth Wildcats (3) vs Cairns Taipans (6) OR South Dragons (7)
Saturday 17 February, Challenge Stadium, 5:40pm (local)
Perth Starters
Darren Brooks, Peter Crawford, Shawn Redhage, Tony Ronaldson, Paul Rogers
Bench
Damien Ryan, Justin Brown, Ben Hunt, Jeff Dowdell, Brad Robbins
Cairns Starters
Darnell Mee, Anthony Stewart, Gary Boodnikoff, Martin Cattalini, Kevin Owens
Bench
Luke Martin, Damon Thornton, Aaron Grabau, Kane Oakley, Matt Smith
Dragons Starters
Shane Heal, Kavossy Franklin, Jacob Holmes, Rosell Ellis, Frank Drmic
Bench
Joe Ingles, Adam Quick, Matt Shanahan, Brent Hobba, Ash Cannan
Final Standings
Wildcats 23-10 (3rd); Taipans 17-16 (6th), Dragons 15-18 (7th)
Stats Leaders
Points: Redhage (PER) 21.2ppg; Cattalini (CAI) 25.3ppg; Franklin (SOU) 21.5ppg
Rebounds: Rogers (PER) 10.4rpg; Owens (CAI) 8.8rpg; Ellis (SOU) 11.3rpg
Assists: Redhage (PER) 5.0apg; Mee (CAI) 4.9apg; Heal (SOU) 4.6apg
Regular Season Series
Vs Taipans Taipans won 2-1
Taipans 89 Wildcats 79 @ Cairns 21/10/06
Wildcats 119 Taipans 103 @ Cairns 19/01/07
Taipans 109 Wildcats 105 @ Darwin 04/02/07
Vs Dragons Wildcats won 3-0
Wildcats 103 Dragons 99 @ Melbourne 30/11/06
Wildcats 108 Dragons 104 @ Melbourne 30/12/06
Wildcats 100 Dragons 98 @ Perth 28/01/07
The Perth Wildcats didnt finish their season the way they wanted to, losing three of their last four games, but it was still a great effort from the four-time NBL champs in 2006/07.
On pure talent alone, few predicted this club would make much noise, but they came together as a group exceptionally well, were the best defensive team in the league and the second unit was much better than expected.
A lot of their success can be attributed to the coaching of Scott Fisher, who led this team to a quarter final appearance in his first year, a semi-final in his second, and is now looking to take the next step. His work with the reserves cannot be underestimated, because it gave the team that depth required to go to another level its accepted that the two best teams in the league are also the two deepest teams in the competition and Perth had to develop that similar depth to become a serious threat.
In Shawn Redhage (21.2ppg, 8.3rpg, 5.0apg, 1.2spg, 52% FG), the Cats had themselves a bonafide MVP candidate, a guy who did everything they asked of him and then some. Hes super-efficient, a great passer, a solid rebounder, and a much better defender than given credit for. Paul Rogers (15.4ppg, 10.4rpg, 3.2apg, 1.5bpg, 56% FG) had his best season since winning the league MVP in 2000. He accepted the captaincy with relish, led the team superbly, and was a rock inside.
Perth got lucky when gunner Damien Ryan fell into their laps, and he has been brilliant from the perimeter, but they also got a great season out of Peter Crawford, Darren Brooks was an underrated contributor and the Fish got plenty of mileage out of the likes of Brad Robbins and Jeff Dowdell.
That said, the Wildcats must be more than a trifle worried heading into this sudden-death game. They have looked vulnerable over the past month, and their defence isnt at the incredibly high level it was previously.
Both Cairns and South have given Perth all kinds of trouble this season. The Taipans beat the Wildcats a fortnight ago and won the regular season series, and although Perth swept South, it was by a combined 10 points over three games and on each occasion the Dragons had every opportunity to win but just couldnt get it done.
The Taipans are probably the easier match-up for the Wildcats, even though they beat them two of three times in 06/07. Perth would feel like they can run on Cairns, they match-up very well up front and dont rely on one player too much as the Snakes do with Martin Cattalini. Ultimately, the Wildcats would be able to get stops and you feel like their pressure would eventually take its toll.
South might be a different story. They will have zero fear against a ballclub they believe they should have beaten at least twice this season, and for some reason Perth just hasnt been able to deal effectively with the Dragons high-octane transition game. Shane Heal and Kavossy Franklin have an advantage in the backcourt and Rosell Ellis has given his old ballclub fits each time.
However, I still think the Wildcats will get through, no matter who they play. The Jungle will be at fever pitch and when those fans are revved up its a scary place for opposition teams; Fisher will make sure his players are highly motivated and you have to believe theyll execute offensively a lot better than in the previous few games.
It will be close either way, but its impossible to go past Perth at home.
Prediction: Wildcats by 7 against the Taipans
Wildcats by 2 against the Dragons
The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and in no way represent those of the National Basketball League.
