New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

[Gobsmacked]

I base all my decisions of what sport I follow, on the size of its salary cap.

Well, OK...?

 

[taste2taste]

Hard to say how long it'll take to reach that cob.

Most years it only jumps like $200k-$300k one season to the next. However some TV deal years it can jump as high as $2m one year to the next like 2017 to 2018 and 2022 to 2023.

On a normal milk run it'll take up to 10+ years to reach $20m but if there's jump years in there the overall length could take less time. Something like 8 or so years. What's your gut feel on it?

View attachment 96548

Based on that it looks the cap kinda sorta doubles every decade.

It’s possible the NRL will have a salary cap of 20m by 2030

 

[Wb1234]

Based on that it looks the cap kinda sorta doubles every decade.

It’s possible the NRL will have a salary cap of 20m by 2030

7.5 million higher cap multipled by 20 clubs

= 150 million in extra revenue

Clubs will want at least 50 million extra but probably more

Plus qrl etc

Very unlikely

Current revenue is 730 million pa

Doubt revenue is going to 1.1 billion by 2030

 

[Matiunz]

With chch getting a team the warriors can take that home game to another centre that doesn’t get any games like Hamilton which has a beautiful little stadium

FMG Stadium Waikato | • Stats

FMG Stadium Waikato, venue specifications, matchs and teams. • Football stadium information.

www.bettingacademynigeria.com

Even this ground in taranaki isn’t too shabby

Yarrow Stadium updates

www.trc.govt.nz

If NZ2 pops up it’ll be Hamilton and Wellington that get the majority of the attention.

Yarrow Stadium has hosted an NRL game in 2016 for Isaac Luke but it’s not the best to visit. I’m surprised you mentioned it considering your feelings about curved seating (those concrete stand sections are curved. New Plymouth has a population around 60k and is around 3 hours from anywhere sizeable population wise and not really on the way to anywhere. Been there a few times and it a pain in the arse to get to with it being smack bang in the middle of suburbia there’s little parking and nothing restaurant or entertainment wise around.
If they were going for one of the smaller centres somewhere like Palmy is a better option due to larger population and its proximity to other sizeable centres. It’s also probably behind somewhere like Napier or Rotorua also

 

[taste2taste]

7.5 million higher cap multipled by 20 clubs

= 150 million in extra revenue

Clubs will want at least 50 million extra but probably more

Plus qrl etc

Very unlikely

Current revenue is 730 million pa

Doubt revenue is going to 1.1 billion by 2030

If you had to take an educated guess what would the cap be in 2030? 2035 and 2040?

 

[Wb1234]

If you had to take an educated guess what would the cap be in 2030? 2035 and 2040?

Depends how greedy the clubs are.

They took most of the increased money last time.

They will want more money to agree to expansion.

It will hit 20 just don’t know when.

It’s not hard to guess

You take the increased revenue from tv deal plus other revenue and see how far you can spend it on stuff

The tv deal should go up around 150 million in cash. Say other revenue over five years goes up by 100 million

They have 250 million extra revenue to spend.

How does that get split between players clubs and the nrl itself ?

If it’s one third each then 83 million goes to players

That would mean a cap rise of around 4.15 million per club

The current cap is around 12.5 million so it’s looking like 16.65 milllion

They will do a big jump in year one of the new tv deal then the rest will be small amounts of 200k pa

You can adjust it based on what you think will happen with revenue or if the players get more to see where it lands

 

[Matiunz]

Curious. Do any of the expansionista's on this forum and in particular this thread actually live in NZ, mainly South Is NZ and can confirm the actual status of Rugby, Rugby League and all the other rhetoric many on here are arguing over?

Seems like (and pardon me if I'm wrong) that people arguing whichever which way aren't located anywhere near the proposed location of a new NZ club and their understanding of this might not be as sound as they believe it to be?

Keen to hear how this is playing out from locals. After all, they would be the main target audience.

Lot of claims and assumptions from Aus posters on here that have a few inaccuracies that will naturally be challenged by NZ posters- be that living there currently or expats, particularly if they are agenda loaded.
I’ve been in Sydney for the last decade but before that grew up and have lived all over the lower North Island including 7 years in Wellington (one of the expansion hopefuls), during that time playing with players in the local scene.
As for the South Island did project work which had me living in an area for 2-3 month projects, one of our territories was Nelson/Blenheim so spent plenty of time there. Currently have cousins living there and with my Group I go to Warriors games with 2 are from Christchurch, last time I was there was earlier in the year.
Although I don’t currently live there I go back to NZ 2-3 times a year and have plenty of family and friends there that I speak to regularly so am confident I’m pretty up to date with what’s happening there, more so than say someone who supposedly went on holiday there once (depending on which version is being portrayed at this time).
One thing I have learnt also is locals like to think their product/standard is as good as everyone else’s (as I did when I lived in NZ) it’s an eye opener when you see the difference in the junior and grass roots systems Aus is working with.

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

Hard to say how long it'll take to reach that cob.

Most years it only jumps like $200k-$300k one season to the next. However some TV deal years it can jump as high as $2m one year to the next like 2017 to 2018 and 2022 to 2023.

On a normal milk run it'll take up to 10+ years to reach $20m but if there's jump years in there the overall length could take less time. Something like 8 or so years. What's your gut feel on it?

View attachment 96548

V`Landy`s from the start has said that giving money to the clubs is the best thing for the game, he`s done exactly the same thing in racing by ploughing money back into race payments and prize money.
So I`m betting it`s a priority for him, rich clubs means League gets the best talent.
I remember him at a race function being asked what he thought of Buddy Franklin, first being V`Landys said he`d never heard of him, then followed it up by saying he should have been playing in the centres for St. George.
He wants the best playing League, and the way to guarantee that is by making sure they`ve got the money, so I`m thinking if he can pull this monster Tv deal upping the salary cap will be a priority.

 

[taste2taste]

One thing I have learnt also is locals like to think their product/standard is as good as everyone else’s (as I did when I lived in NZ) it’s an eye opener when you see the difference in the junior and grass roots systems Aus is working with.

Can you expand about what you mean in this paragraph?

 

[Perth Red]

Can you expand about what you mean in this paragraph?

I think at that 18 to first grade is where the real difference is in elite pathway development for players in Oz (and now hopefully at warriors). Usually at U18 level internationl teams are pretty even.

All comes down to money. If youve got $3-4mill a year to spend on those elite programs with a $50-100mill Centre of excellence to run them out of not surprisingly those kids will become much stronger players than in areas like SI and WA where we dont at the moment. Similarly for England and France where we often see the French kids do really well but not come through into quality first graders.

 

[SirPies&Beers]

Based on that it looks the cap kinda sorta doubles every decade.

It’s possible the NRL will have a salary cap of 20m by 2030

Not a bad shout. You're probably close to the jackpot there, even if its the minor one. I say this cause '30 is only 5 years away.

Lot of claims and assumptions from Aus posters on here that have a few inaccuracies that will naturally be challenged by NZ posters- be that living there currently or expats, particularly if they are agenda loaded.
I’ve been in Sydney for the last decade but before that grew up and have lived all over the lower North Island including 7 years in Wellington (one of the expansion hopefuls), during that time playing with players in the local scene.
As for the South Island did project work which had me living in an area for 2-3 month projects, one of our territories was Nelson/Blenheim so spent plenty of time there. Currently have cousins living there and with my Group I go to Warriors games with 2 are from Christchurch, last time I was there was earlier in the year.
Although I don’t currently live there I go back to NZ 2-3 times a year and have plenty of family and friends there that I speak to regularly so am confident I’m pretty up to date with what’s happening there, more so than say someone who supposedly went on holiday there once (depending on which version is being portrayed at this time).
One thing I have learnt also is locals like to think their product/standard is as good as everyone else’s (as I did when I lived in NZ) it’s an eye opener when you see the difference in the junior and grass roots systems Aus is working with.

I like the cut of this jib.

 

[Perth Red]

Depends how greedy the clubs are.

They took most of the increased money last time.

They will want more money to agree to expansion.

It will hit 20 just don’t know when.

It’s not hard to guess

You take the increased revenue from tv deal plus other revenue and see how far you can spend it on stuff

The tv deal should go up around 150 million in cash. Say other revenue over five years goes up by 100 million

They have 250 million extra revenue to spend.

How does that get split between players clubs and the nrl itself ?

If it’s one third each then 83 million goes to players

That would mean a cap rise of around 4.15 million per club

The current cap is around 12.5 million so it’s looking like 16.65 milllion

They will do a big jump in year one of the new tv deal then the rest will be small amounts of 200k pa

You can adjust it based on what you think will happen with revenue or if the players get more to see where it lands

Club and player distributions as a % of total revenue
2021 49%
2022 50%
2023 52%

So basically around half the games revenue goes to clubs and players. If we get an extra $100mill cash a year on TV deal then we can expect around $50mill of it to go to clubs ($2.6mill a club based on 19 clubs) with probably the cap going up between $1-1.5mill I'd suggest for 2025> (not taking into account other revenue increases from other sources)

 

[Matiunz]

Can you expand about what you mean in this paragraph?

One of the big challenges with NZ2 and well even the Warriors is that the local standard of league is pretty amateur compared to those you will see in Australian systems. The NZRL runs on the smell of an oily rag and doesn’t have the best record when it comes to making sound choices and has a history of ‘jobs for the boys’ culture. Auckland a few pockets around the country are ‘ok’ but have until recent surges gone backwards in standard from what they once were even 25 odd years ago. Many regions have withered on the vine.
For NZ2 to thrive a solid administration is a must raising the bar in grass roots systems and development is a must- if the NZRL can rise at the same time then fantastic- it’s much needed.
Around the time the Orcas first came up I was super keen on them coming in and looked at the NZ heritage players and thought we were good enough to get in. What many don’t see is that the good NZ players will generally have to leave NZ at high school age or earlier and move to Australia to get their league education, the likes of Christchurch won’t be getting players from local comps as the currently stand. It wasn’t until I moved to Sydney seeing what the Australian systems have at their disposal where the penny dropped as to where many of the Warriors struggles came from- the playing field wasn’t even and NZ had fallen far behind. Also got to realise any team outside of Auckland will be starting well below what even the Warriors have to work with.
Sure the interest is there and we all want NZ teams to do well but need a lot of work done to get them there otherwise what’s the point in importing majority of your player base? Auckland finds it hard enough to recruit- CHCH will be that much tougher unless they hit the ground running with success. Can only think of Melbourne and Brisbane that have come in and maintained their standard (for the most part with Brisbane)

 

[Perth Red]

One of the big challenges with NZ2 and well even the Warriors is that the local standard of league is pretty amateur compared to those you will see in Australian systems. The NZRL runs on the smell of an oily rag and doesn’t have the best record when it comes to making sound choices and has a history of ‘jobs for the boys’ culture. Auckland a few pockets around the country are ‘ok’ but have until recent surges gone backwards in standard from what they once were even 25 odd years ago. Many regions have withered on the vine.
For NZ2 to thrive a solid administration is a must raising the bar in grass roots systems and development is a must- if the NZRL can rise at the same time then fantastic- it’s much needed.
Around the time the Orcas first came up I was super keen on them coming in and looked at the NZ heritage players and thought we were good enough to get in. What many don’t see is that the good NZ players will generally have to leave NZ at high school age or earlier and move to Australia to get their league education, the likes of Christchurch won’t be getting players from local comps as the currently stand. It wasn’t until I moved to Sydney seeing what the Australian systems have at their disposal where the penny dropped as to where many of the Warriors struggles came from- the playing field wasn’t even and NZ had fallen far behind. Also got to realise any team outside of Auckland will be starting well below what even the Warriors have to work with.
Sure the interest is there and we all want NZ teams to do well but need a lot of work done to get them there otherwise what’s the point in importing majority of your player base? Auckland finds it hard enough to recruit- CHCH will be that much tougher unless they hit the ground running with success. Can only think of Melbourne and Brisbane that have come in and maintained their standard (for the most part with Brisbane)

As usual a lot will come down to how rich the Orcas are really. If they have the resources to set up the elite programs properly as well as support the local Jnr pathways no reason they cant be turning the SI kids into first graders eventually. But like any of the new clubs it will take years. Hopefully the Kiwi first graders in Oz will find it an attractive prospect to move back and help with a decent squad for the first ten years whilst the programs start to generate players. Even Dolphins with their established systems are 3 years in and have very few 'local' players in first team still. Given they might not be entering until 2030 you'd hope they'd be a lot of prep work done in the meantime. Maybe Vlandys should ask Christchurch council for $120mill for jnr funding?

 

[MugaB]

V`Landy`s from the start has said that giving money to the clubs is the best thing for the game, he`s done exactly the same thing in racing by ploughing money back into race payments and prize money.
So I`m betting it`s a priority for him, rich clubs means League gets the best talent.
I remember him at a race function being asked what he thought of Buddy Franklin, first being V`Landys said he`d never heard of him, then followed it up by saying he should have been playing in the centres for St. George.
He wants the best playing League, and the way to guarantee that is by making sure they`ve got the money, so I`m thinking if he can pull this monster Tv deal upping the salary cap will be a priority.

Well NRL cannot keep the profits, all money needs to be returned to the clubs anyways, only thing that has changed recently is the need to build assets, which they have done by buying a few hotels, the game is in great shape, just needs to focus on getting expansion sorted out,then they can float the 20 teams, add conferences, and rake I'm more money from the broadcasters

 

[Perth Red]

Thats one of the Original bid gone, grassroots owners replaced by the others. From the SI bid Facebook page:

Following the National Rugby Leagues RFP process, and a lot of soul searching the founding members Bid Kieran Bligh, Duane Fyfe and Tony Kidd have decided to close down their bid. Frank Endacott, Poto Williams and Colin Groves have decided to maintain the South Island NRL Bid. I wish them well with their future plans.
We’re optimistic about the possibility of a 2nd NRL franchise for New Zealand encompassing the South Island. We are pleased our efforts managed to put the South Island of New Zealand in with a real chance of being an NRL expansion side. It’s exciting to see the level of interest from other bids and we wish them every success our driver has always been increasing the profile and recognition of New Zealand as a powerhouse of rugby league. Our passion is with the clubs and their supporters and creating real pathways for our young men and women who play league.
Good luck to the various bids who will take this to fruition and individually we will support them in any way we can.
We wish all bids, including the Orcas and Keas success in bringing an NRL club to Christchurch.

 

[Perth Red]

The original team bidding for a NRL licence in Christchurch insist they are still in the three-bid race despite a prospective personnel change.
Rumours swirled on Tuesday that the South Island NRL Bid (SINRLB) was no longer in the hunt after it had shut down its website.
But chief executive Tony Kidd told The Press “we are still a team and are still putting in a bid, but there may be some people going from our team’’.

He said the website was down while they “work through a few things”, but its social media accounts were still active.

Kidd said they were still interested in talking to the other two Christchurch bidders - South Island Kea and the Southern Orcas - but were “still in the race’’.
The SINRLB was the first group to register an interest in a Christchurch-based NRL club if the men’s league is expanded to 20 teams.
t was registered with the Companies Office in September 2023 with three directors, Kidd (a former Canterbury Rugby League chairman), ex-Canterbury Rugby League general manager Duane Fyfe and New York-based Cantabrian Kieran Bligh, a United Nations World Food Programme executive.

They have some non-executive directors, including former Kiwis coach Frank Endacott, former Christchurch East Labour MP Poto Williams and chartered accountant and business strategist Colin Groves.

Orcas chief executive Andrew Chalmers said last Friday it had “made contact with both the other bids” and had “always maintained it would make sense to have a single, strong bidder from New Zealand’’.

“We’ve demonstrated that we have the financial backing, business and football expertise to deliver a successful NRL club for Christchurch and southern New Zealand, but we would welcome aboard the other bids to lend their support and skill sets.”
South Island Kea managing director David Moffett has said it would consider talking with the South Island NRL Bid group, but were “not going to go with the Orcas at all”.

The NRL rejected the initial bids from the three South Island groups, but the Orcas and Keas are proceeding with fresh proposals.

The Orcas - chaired by former Kiwis, Manly, Wigan and Queensland coach Sir Graham Lowe - launched last week, claiming it had a $60 million capital funding base with a potential overall value of $A360 million. It says its bid is associated with a $100 million “centre of excellence’’ at Rolleston and a proposed inner-city hotel and entertainment complex.

Moffett told The Press last week the Kea had a “substantial’’ unnamed overseas backer and its initial bid had included an offer to pay a $20 million licence fee.

The Kea remain in the race if the NRL considers a second New Zealand team.

The Press

www.thepress.co.nz

 

[Wb1234]

One of the big challenges with NZ2 and well even the Warriors is that the local standard of league is pretty amateur compared to those you will see in Australian systems. The NZRL runs on the smell of an oily rag and doesn’t have the best record when it comes to making sound choices and has a history of ‘jobs for the boys’ culture. Auckland a few pockets around the country are ‘ok’ but have until recent surges gone backwards in standard from what they once were even 25 odd years ago. Many regions have withered on the vine.
For NZ2 to thrive a solid administration is a must raising the bar in grass roots systems and development is a must- if the NZRL can rise at the same time then fantastic- it’s much needed.
Around the time the Orcas first came up I was super keen on them coming in and looked at the NZ heritage players and thought we were good enough to get in. What many don’t see is that the good NZ players will generally have to leave NZ at high school age or earlier and move to Australia to get their league education, the likes of Christchurch won’t be getting players from local comps as the currently stand. It wasn’t until I moved to Sydney seeing what the Australian systems have at their disposal where the penny dropped as to where many of the Warriors struggles came from- the playing field wasn’t even and NZ had fallen far behind. Also got to realise any team outside of Auckland will be starting well below what even the Warriors have to work with.
Sure the interest is there and we all want NZ teams to do well but need a lot of work done to get them there otherwise what’s the point in importing majority of your player base? Auckland finds it hard enough to recruit- CHCH will be that much tougher unless they hit the ground running with success. Can only think of Melbourne and Brisbane that have come in and maintained their standard (for the most part with Brisbane)

The Warriors are a poorly run club

That doesn’t mean Christchurch will be

As in super rugby they have a habit of showing up richer / bigger Auckland

It depends on the coach, football dept and board

 

[Wb1234]

The original team bidding for a NRL licence in Christchurch insist they are still in the three-bid race despite a prospective personnel change.
Rumours swirled on Tuesday that the South Island NRL Bid (SINRLB) was no longer in the hunt after it had shut down its website.
But chief executive Tony Kidd told The Press “we are still a team and are still putting in a bid, but there may be some people going from our team’’.

He said the website was down while they “work through a few things”, but its social media accounts were still active.

Kidd said they were still interested in talking to the other two Christchurch bidders - South Island Kea and the Southern Orcas - but were “still in the race’’.
The SINRLB was the first group to register an interest in a Christchurch-based NRL club if the men’s league is expanded to 20 teams.
t was registered with the Companies Office in September 2023 with three directors, Kidd (a former Canterbury Rugby League chairman), ex-Canterbury Rugby League general manager Duane Fyfe and New York-based Cantabrian Kieran Bligh, a United Nations World Food Programme executive.

They have some non-executive directors, including former Kiwis coach Frank Endacott, former Christchurch East Labour MP Poto Williams and chartered accountant and business strategist Colin Groves.

Orcas chief executive Andrew Chalmers said last Friday it had “made contact with both the other bids” and had “always maintained it would make sense to have a single, strong bidder from New Zealand’’.

“We’ve demonstrated that we have the financial backing, business and football expertise to deliver a successful NRL club for Christchurch and southern New Zealand, but we would welcome aboard the other bids to lend their support and skill sets.”
South Island Kea managing director David Moffett has said it would consider talking with the South Island NRL Bid group, but were “not going to go with the Orcas at all”.

The NRL rejected the initial bids from the three South Island groups, but the Orcas and Keas are proceeding with fresh proposals.

The Orcas - chaired by former Kiwis, Manly, Wigan and Queensland coach Sir Graham Lowe - launched last week, claiming it had a $60 million capital funding base with a potential overall value of $A360 million. It says its bid is associated with a $100 million “centre of excellence’’ at Rolleston and a proposed inner-city hotel and entertainment complex.

Moffett told The Press last week the Kea had a “substantial’’ unnamed overseas backer and its initial bid had included an offer to pay a $20 million licence fee.

The Kea remain in the race if the NRL considers a second New Zealand team.

The Press

www.thepress.co.nz

“We’ve demonstrated that we have the financial backing, business and football expertise to deliver a successful NRL club for Christchurch and southern New Zealand, but we would welcome aboard the other bids to lend their support and skill sets.”

Funny he doesn’t mention Wellington. Interesting

 

[Gobsmacked]

Getting interesting