Newcastle vs Parramatta for 8th spot.

[Hollywood Jesus]

OK, let's work under the assumption that the Knights, Rabbitohs and Cowboys win on Saturday. This would leave Parramatta in a situation similar to last year where a victory by x amount of points scrapes them in.

Problem last year was not that Parramatta weren't good enough, it was that x = 28. Too much from the get go. x needs to be lower, more achievable.

Now if we are lucky enough to survive the Saturday Gauntlet, we want x to be a single digit. Currently, x is 57, but Newcastle have a chance to lower it if they beat the Tigers, which we are assuming is true as a premise.

How low do we want x to be when the Eels take the field on Sunday? Don't automatically think 0, meaning we only need to win by a field goal. In this scenario Newcastle's differential would have dropped to -54 and our one point win will leave us with -70. If Newcastle won by 57 then we would need to win by 18, otherwise Newcastle get 8th spot.

There is a balance in there that allows Parra to score as little as possible while still maintaing better differentials than both the Tigers and Knights.


Newcastle victory margin...10...20...30...40...45...46...47...48...49...50...51

Newcastle Differential........101.91...81...71...66...65...64...63...62...61...60
Tigers Differential...............25...35...45...55...60...61...62...63...64...65...66

Eels victory margin needed 47...37...27...17...12...11...10...9...10...11...12

So the ideal situation is for Newcastle to win by 48 against the Tigers, leaving them both on - 63, which means we only need to win by 9 to get the last finals spot.

 

[Utey]

LOLLLLL do you ever give up HJ. Even i reckon we are gone. It would take more than a miracle :roll:

 

[Parraren]

The Rabbits won't beat the Raiders in Canberra. The End.

 

[Utey]

Optimism by an eels fan at its peak. We shouldnt be in this position. We shoudlve beaten Penrith.

 

[Shaun Hewitt]

Raiders will beat Rabbits
Wests will beat Knights
Sharks have a possibility of beating Cowboys

and the likelyhood of all those loosing are low, even if they all did then its still a slim chance that chooks will loose by over 50 to the eels (no offence, but its definately possibility with next years squad).

 

[Rock_66]

Were you bored or something Hollywood ? :lol:

 

[bazza]

I will be happy cheering the team to a victory over the Roosters

 

[Eels Dude]

We'll make the finals easily... that's what we can say in a years time anyway. It's only 365 sleeps away!

 

[bartman]

It's good maths, and maths is interesting. But only once the Saturday night results come in will it (maybe?) come into play.

I wouldn't back Wests to lose to Newcastle with anyone's money. And now I just want to see Parra end the season with a win...

 

[The Colonel]

I wouldn't back Wests to lose to Newcastle with anyone's money. And now I just want to see Parra end the season with a win...

I would and I have - now I'm wavering on whether we can make it or not however I don't think the Tigers can beat Newcastle at home. They played their GF last week IMO.

The Cowboys will beat the Sharks at home in front of 20k+ fans as they won't want anyone to spoil the party.

The biggest problem is Canberra. I've backed them for the eight.

 

[Avenger]

HJ if I'm ever stuck in a desert, I want you to be with me and of course the lady in PJ Marshall's avatar. ;-)

 

[PB]

I just hope this site is congested with people trying to log on on Saturday night at around 9:30, to work out what we need on Sunday.

Don't right the bunnies off, the raiders have been nothing short of woeful over the last two months.

And i agree with the person who said the Tigers may have played their GF last week.

Of course it's wishful thinking, but thats what makes HJ a "supporter" and not a "detractor."....

 

[Stagger eel]

HJ if I'm ever stuck in a desert, I want you to be with me and of course the lady in PJ Marshall's avatar. ;-)

do you bat for both teams??? ;-)

 

[Avenger]

HJ if I'm ever stuck in a desert, I want you to be with me and of course the lady in PJ Marshall's avatar. ;-)

do you bat for both teams??? ;-)

No smartarse. I need HJ to survive and keep my optimism, I need the girl to fill in time.

 

[Clarkieel]

HJ I did the same calculations myself late last sunday night, there is still a slim chance that I am holding onto until saturday night when we know if there is a real chance on sunday or not.
Looking forward also to seeing the Eels smash the roosters for the second time this year!!

 

[Agent Mulder]

Then Moses himself showed up and Parted the red sea.

 

[KevinArnold]

Then Jesus broke bread and fed a thousand people with one loaf :blahb:

We're Gone! :roll:

Bring on 2005 :thumnn

 

[oldmancraigy]

Super Thread Hollywood!

Just thought I'd bring it back to the top!

Why give up? I mean we can certainly give up if things go against us, but until that time let's play pretends eh?

I gotta say (if we're fantasising here) it'd be great for the Bulldogs to lose to the Warriors right before kickoff in our game - it'd assure the Roosters of the minor premiership and perhaps lower their intensity!

I TRULY believe the Kinghts will win this game by a few, but not so confident of Souths/ Cowboys winning. The Cowboys will lose simply because they have nothing to gain by winning...

 

[GoParra]

I think the cowboys have a lot to gain, They are going into the finals for the first ever time and will want to go in with momentum and on a postive roll.

 

[GoParra]

Souths also have a lot to play for, they will be desperate to avoid the wooden spoon and as a New Zealand resident, I am equally desperate for the warriors to get it