Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[BlueandGold]

How many women’s games do you guys watch ngl mines zero. It’s like nsw cup or qld cup I have no interest in watching it

If Spud is commentating i will watch all 5.

He is so insightful and loves to talk about the game and nothing else.

He treats the main caller with so much respect, he is the least narcissistic person i know of. /sarc

In all seriousness, i will probably watch 2 games a week.

 

[Perth Red]

this is where you let yourself down. You always compare cash v Cash and contra

Where did I put cash in mine?

At the original presser Gil said it was $4b cash. Take out the Telstra money lets say $500m.

That leaves $3.5b over 7 years as TV money.

So that is starting at $475m or so.

If Roy Masters and AFR are correct and the NRL has reported cash then that will end at $460m... That is without the add ons.

Although likely what happens is they will go early with the 9th game.

Starting at 2026 instead of 2028. That even if $400m is total, Then the cash will be similar because of the 9th game, NRLW etc.

So either way you and others have whinged incorrectly

AFL announced it as $570mill a year cash avg (total $4bill cash). Im predicting around $40mill of that cash is Telstra a year. So $530mill cash avg a year for tv alone seems about right.
When you consider what Stan ($550mill) and Paramount ($600mill) offered then $530mill tv cash is in the ball park.

NRl is either $395mill cash avg or $365-370mill cash avg depending on if the $2bill deal was announced as cash only.(very unlikely)
(Factoring $5mil a year roughly radio rights value was in that $400mill announcement)

 

[Perth Red]

How many women’s games do you guys watch ngl mines zero. It’s like nsw cup or qld cup I have no interest in watching it

I watch the internationals but not really interested in NRLW. Its hard enough keeping up with 8 NRL games and 3 SL games a weekend!
Maybe if my club had an NRLW team I'd watch some of their games.

I guess having it on fta when theres no other RL on FTA will help get an audience for those without PTV.

When it goes to 18 teams I hope they keep it a shorter season and have a 17 round comp rather than blow it out to 26 rounds+.

International RLW is great and the NRLW shouldn't be scheduled at a time that interferes with growing the international rep season for the womens game.

 

[docbrown]

I‘ll be honest, living overseas I’ve been out of the loop with NRL rights of late but I had a very interesting meeting this week with a knowledgeable mate. If you don’t follow the news, there’s a big production shutdown now because of a strike. It’s going to be worse than last time so everyone’s been scrambling in preparation. I also asked what he thought the biggest change would be in the next round of NRL rights. He said that now that the FTA channels have fully fledged subscription arms, he anticipated a total Foxtel freeze out. After discussing it, you’ll soon see why it’s a compelling argument.

It’s basically about match and time slot control. When the NRL goes to 9 games, 4 could be allocated as FTA and 5 subscription only. But the time slots for the FTA games could float based on particular game interest. So a Sunday afternoon game broadcast could swap to Saturday night as a one off if the Saturday game was more appealing. This is because there is no other broadcast partner to appease.

We also agreed that with one organisation in control, there would be pressure to swap game times. Say five weeks out, if a game scheduled for Saturday afternoon looks like it might become a 1 vs 2 top of the table match up, that game gets pushed to Saturday night and swapped with the existing game in that slot.

Basically the idea is that regardless of the schedule, the four FTA games would be guaranteed the best time slots with the most marketable match ups.

 

[Wb1234]

I‘ll be honest, living overseas I’ve been out of the loop with NRL rights of late but I had a very interesting meeting this week with a knowledgeable mate. If you don’t follow the news, there’s a big production shutdown now because of a strike. It’s going to be worse than last time so everyone’s been scrambling in preparation. I also asked what he thought the biggest change would be in the next round of NRL rights. He said that now that the FTA channels have fully fledged subscription arms, he anticipated a total Foxtel freeze out. After discussing it, you’ll soon see why it’s a compelling argument.

It’s basically about match and time slot control. When the NRL goes to 9 games, 4 could be allocated as FTA and 5 subscription only. But the time slots for the FTA games could float based on particular game interest. So a Sunday afternoon game broadcast could swap to Saturday night as a one off if the Saturday game was more appealing. This is because there is no other broadcast partner to appease.

We also agreed that with one organisation in control, there would be pressure to swap game times. Say five weeks out, if a game scheduled for Saturday afternoon looks like it might become a 1 vs 2 top of the table match up, that game gets pushed to Saturday night and swapped with the existing game in that slot.

Basically the idea is that regardless of the schedule, the four FTA games would be guaranteed the best time slots with the most marketable match ups.

Can’t see foxtel losing it they can afford to pay whatever to keep it

but genuine bidding against them should lead to 600 million pa

 

[docbrown]

Can’t see foxtel losing it they can afford to pay whatever to keep it

but genuine bidding against them should lead to 600 million pa

Well it will devastate the Foxtel model if they lose it. The issue is that the FTA networks gain far more by going solo than partnering with Foxtel. If they have to bid with Foxtel, they are going to bid far less and Foxtel will have to do even more of the heavy lifting, even more than they do now. The main argument is that even if time slot control doesn’t eventuate, the mere prospect of it is going to elevate the overall bidding price. However, with the decline in reliable programming on FTA and sport one of the few things that is bucking the trend, don’t be surprised if this happens.

 

[Iamback]

Well it will devastate the Foxtel model if they lose it. The issue is that the FTA networks gain far more by going solo than partnering with Foxtel. If they have to bid with Foxtel, they are going to bid far less and Foxtel will have to do even more of the heavy lifting, even more than they do now. The main argument is that even if time slot control doesn’t eventuate, the mere prospect of it is going to elevate the overall bidding price. However, with the decline in reliable programming on FTA and sport one of the few things that is bucking the trend, don’t be surprised if this happens.

The flip side to that is how much FTA can pay for that extra game. They aren't exactly rolling in cash

 

[Iamback]

Can’t see foxtel losing it they can afford to pay whatever to keep it

but genuine bidding against them should lead to 600 million pa

Foxtel are the best pay tv option.

Cricket Australia wanted Foxtel and went and sourced a FTA partner only.

Ch10 hopefully is prepared to work with Fox and fix their regional network up or the only options are

Paramount/10
Stan/9
Fox/9

Given Stan dying a slow death, I can't see them as a genuine option

 

[Éamonn an Chnoic]

Such good news for the next broadcast deal.


The NRLW will enter a brand new era this season after the announcement of a ground-breaking broadcast deal for the competition.

With 10 clubs now in the expanded NRLW, Nine has secured a deal to show every match live and free on the TV network and 9Now.

Nine's coverage will include a new NRLW production unit with over 100 hours of live coverage, the dedicated weekly magazine show NRLWrap to be shown on Nine and 9Now along with a weekly NRLW podcast.

Nine's commentary team for the NRLW season and Women's State of Origin will feature former Jillaroos Ruan Sims and Allana Ferguson, hosts Emma Lawrence and Danika Mason, defending NRLW premiership captain Millie Boyle along with support from the entire Wide World of Sports rugby league team.

Nine's game-changing broadcast deal for NRLW

Every game of the season live and free

wwos.nine.com.au

Absolutely Brilliant!!

NRLW is already above Union in terms of tv viewers. Imagine with FTA exposure for the teams/players will do for the comp.

It has so much potential for growth and this is just what it needs

 

[The Penguin #6.]

Channel 10 starting the groundwork to be the holder of the next Australian Rugby League broadcast rights.

"Fox Sports star Braith Anasta has rejected a lucrative offer to be the next bachelor on Channel 10’s hit reality TV show.
The NRL 360 host was recently approached by the network to star in the soon-to-be produced series to run next year."

Maybe in partnership with Fox.

 

[The_Wookie]

Well it will devastate the Foxtel model if they lose it. The issue is that the FTA networks gain far more by going solo than partnering with Foxtel. If they have to bid with Foxtel, they are going to bid far less and Foxtel will have to do even more of the heavy lifting, even more than they do now. The main argument is that even if time slot control doesn’t eventuate, the mere prospect of it is going to elevate the overall bidding price. However, with the decline in reliable programming on FTA and sport one of the few things that is bucking the trend, don’t be surprised if this happens.

Foxtels major problem is that Optus, STAN, Paramount and Bein all prove you dont need to have terrestrial services to be an effective paytv rights holder. Foxtel mattered because at one point it had millions of these - essentially was an entire channels worth of market on its own - and extensive pub and club contracts, but is shifting to a streamer focus. With Nine having extensive streaming capabilities through NOW and STAN, Ten through Tenplay and Paramount, and Seven evidently finally realising that streaming is a good thing for its AFL rights on 7plus, none of them need Fox for broadcast partnerships - but whether any of these can afford the full rights package aand production costs is something else entirely, Seven probably cant, Nine might, and Paramount kind of can, although its kind of in a weird financial place at the moment.

With so little self made content on Binge or Foxtel, and with the likes of Disney (which includes ESPN), Paramount, and Warner (HBO)/Discovery beginning to go their own ways - Hell even the BBC/ITV Britbox partnership is a thing and NBC/Universals Peacock is beginning to go international, its a matter of time before content aggregators like Foxtel, STAN and Sky find their content limited. IT was the one advantage Fox/STAN have had and only slightly protected by current content agreements.

Note that Fox will bo longer broadcast Bein channels shortly - still available on Fetch though

Also worth noting that goddamn TABCORP just won the Melbourne Cup rights - which are on the antisiphoning list - and have called for FTA bids.

 

[ash the bash]

Wookie in your opinion what would be a pass mark for the next broadcast deal?
One would assume 500m+

 

[The_Wookie]

Wookie in your opinion what would be a pass mark for the next broadcast deal?
One would assume 500m+

It HAS to be more than 500m given inflation and the positioning of AFL rights at the same time, which will have started 2 years earlier. If the NRL goes full turbo and adds in another team or three to even out the numbers, and womens league ratings continue to rise, then really the minimum you should be looking at is closer to 550m-600m than 500m - you want to be in the same if not better ballpark than the AFL is come 2031 (when the AFL deal ends).

 

[Perth Red]

Needs to be around $550mill cash avg 2028-2032 or its a failure, again.
We will have an 18 team mens comp by then and possibly an 18 team womens comp.
No reason it shouldn't surpass AFL's deal in 2028, sht negotiations aside.

Whats potentially holding it back is tv knows it currently only worth $380-400milcash avg now and that would be a big step up. Only way will be competitive tension I suspect.

 

[The_Wookie]

Needs to be around $550mill cash avg 2028-2032 or its a failure, again.
We will have an 18 team mens comp by then and possibly an 18 team womens comp.
No reason it shouldn't surpass AFL's deal in 2028, sht negotiations aside.

Whats potentially holding it back is tv knows it currently only worth $380-400milcash avg now and that would be a big step up. Only way will be competitive tension I suspect.

I expect it to be Paramounts last roll of the sports streaming dice. Similar offer to that made for the AFL I think.

If Paramount dont get this deal, I think that'll be it for Paramount sport in Aus. You cant get rejected by the big 3 sports despite offering more money and come back from it.

 

[Perth Red]

I expect it to be Paramounts last roll of the sports streaming dice. Similar offer to that made for the AFL I think.

If Paramount dont get this deal, I think that'll be it for Paramount sport in Aus. You cant get rejected by the big 3 sports despite offering more money and come back from it.

Youd think so. Id love to know what the cash component of the alleged $600mill they bid for afl was and how it compared to Fox/7 bid? It sounds like it would have been a fair bit more so there must have been some benefits to sticking with the incumbents that made AFL give up that cash in hand?

 

[Wb1234]

Anything less than 600 million is a poor result

anything over is a good result

 

[Perth Red]

Anything less than 600 million is a poor result

anything over is a good result

Will only happen if there is a bidding war. We had all better keep our fingers crossed Paramount and Stan are still in the game come 2026ish when the '28> tv rights get negotiated.

 

[taipan]

Needs to be around $550mill cash avg 2028-2032 or its a failure, again.
We will have an 18 team mens comp by then and possibly an 18 team womens comp.
No reason it shouldn't surpass AFL's deal in 2028, sht negotiations aside.

Whats potentially holding it back is tv knows it currently only worth $380-400milcash avg now and that would be a big step up. Only way will be competitive tension I suspect.

Please. You never took in the fact the fumbler deal was 7 years starting 2025 , so inflation plays a big part as the longer a contract goes, and the later it finishes , compared to where the NRL will start their new deal 2028.
So AFL further 3years of inflation included in their 7years deal.
FWIW IMO the AFL may have indicated to the TV outlets when they negotiated, a 19 team Tasmania was in the pipeline as an appetiser.
The Reserve bank is hoping for 3% , good luck with that ,if the Government goes ahead with a huge increase in migration numbers.
Also no 18 teams involved by NRL at the last deal, no stats on TV ad revenue for either sport and I could go own ad nauseum. You still crap on it's a failure continuing to compare like with unlike, reading what journos and some within the game with an axe to grind as being TV deal gurus.
The only thing I agree with you on is a far bigger deal because of what will be 18 teams, and because the introduction of the Dolph Lundgrens has been a TV ratings boom(Ala Brisbane),and generally TV ratings have shot up dramatically.
I can't see Ch 7 wanting rl except for SOO,as they are tied to the 7 year which some considers too much.Thta leaves Foxtel/Nein and who knows with ch10.FTA Tv and in the States is losing favour.

 

[Perth Red]

Please. You never took in the fact the fumbler deal was 7 years starting 2025 , so inflation plays a big part as the longer a contract goes, and the later it finishes , compared to where the NRL will start their new deal 2028.
So AFL further 3years of inflation included in their 7years deal.
FWIW IMO the AFL may have indicated to the TV outlets when they negotiated, a 19 team Tasmania was in the pipeline as an appetiser.
The Reserve bank is hoping for 3% , good luck with that ,if the Government goes ahead with a huge increase in migration numbers.
Also no 18 teams involved by NRL at the last deal, no stats on TV ad revenue for either sport and I could go own ad nauseum. You still crap on it's a failure continuing to compare like with unlike, reading what journos and some within the game with an axe to grind as being TV deal gurus.
The only thing I agree with you on is a far bigger deal because of what will be 18 teams, and because the introduction of the Dolph Lundgrens has been a TV ratings boom(Ala Brisbane),and generally TV ratings have shot up dramatically.
I can't see Ch 7 wanting rl except for SOO,as they are tied to the 7 year which some considers too much.Thta leaves Foxtel/Nein and who knows with ch10.FTA Tv and in the States is losing favour.

It’s an aVg, you do understand how avgs work dont you?
tv deals,dont work on inflation, not sure how many times I have to explain this to you! They are changed at around 2% a year over the life of the deal and when you add it all up it comes to the total and is then avg’d over the deal in the announcement

so once again on cash amounts of tv deals

nrl $400mill avg (for sake of argument).

2023 $384.2
2024 $392
2025 $400
2026 $408
2027 $416.2

afl $530mill avg

2025 $498.8
2026 $509
2027 $519.4
2028 $530
2029 $546
2030 $556.9
2031 $568