Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[The_Wookie]

How do you know raw rations aren’t that important ?

The last two tv deals were essentially the same and that’s with afl having more teams and games

How were they the same exactly?



AFL

You were literally the person who claimed regional viewers don’t matter

Do you have a citation for that. I dont recall actually saying that.
Im not saying I didnt, Im saying I dont remember saying it. or the context i said it in.

 

[Iamback]

Is there a mechanism in the deal that accounts for inflation?

The deal when advertised is an average. It is increases naturally but inflation is included.

So the current $2b deal. Has 5 years of inflation included

 

[Wb1234]

How were they the same exactly?

View attachment 96449

AFL
View attachment 96450

Unless there is another poster on here called the wookie then no it was you

Regionals don’t matter only give city metro lol

And this comment is funny given 80 percent of tv deals are from pay tv where all viewers count


Do you have a citation for that. I dont recall actually saying that.
Im not saying I didnt, Im saying I dont remember saying it. or the context i said it in.

Unless there is another poster on here called the wookie then no it was you

Regionals don’t matter only give city metro lol

And this comment is funny given 80 percent of tv deals are from pay tv where all viewers count

 

[Wb1234]

We don't know the Telstra share. Hell even the cost of the Marvel upgrades.

I agree Stan/ch9 will likely bid $500m. That will be FTA and Pay TV though

Depends on what you believe this deal is. I believe the $400m cash figure. Add contra and the current deal is now $430m.

You are adding inflation every year so this deal gets to roughly $470m by year 5.

So starting at $500m is barely over inflation. Throw in the extra teams to fund and the deal is good but not great.

It also would put the 2 deals on par. Add cricket and the 3 big sports barely got more than inflation rises.

which tells the story of the market

So stan 500 million

Then foxtel have to beat them

That’s around 525 million there before you include the nz tv deal which is currently 32 million pa and could go up

Heck even png via Telstra digicel could come up with 5 to 10 mill pa

 

[Iamback]

So stan 500 million

Then foxtel have to beat them

That’s around 525 million there before you include the nz tv deal which is currently 32 million pa and could go up

Heck even png via Telstra digicel could come up with 5 to 10 mill pa

Why does Foxtel need to beat Stan when Stan will include ch9's FTA deal as well?

Everything Stan bids for includes FTA.

Assuming Stan goes that high of course

So you are looking at $350m or so for Foxtel to match that. But you aren't getting a reduced season for that. So depends what they want from the next deal

 

[Wb1234]

Why does Foxtel need to beat Stan when Stan will include ch9's FTA deal as well?

Everything Stan bids for includes FTA.

Assuming Stan goes that high of course

So you are looking at $350m or so for Foxtel to match that. But you aren't getting a reduced season for that. So depends what they want from the next deal

No stan will be running games exclusively like Fox do

Why do stan have to beat Fox?

Bc if they don’t they lose their top rating program and their valuation goes down to near zero

Looks like 2 less rounds but expanded pacific cup and 20 teams

 

[Wb1234]

And if you believe the afl fox are paying them 400 million pa

Given its subscription tv nrl should be getting more

 

[Iamback]

No stan will be running games exclusively like Fox do

Why do stan have to beat Fox?

Bc if they don’t they lose their top rating program and their valuation goes down to near zero

Looks like 2 less rounds but expanded pacific cup and 20 teams

Yes but the $500m AFL bid was on behalf of 9 Entertainment.

Olympics and Tennis was the same

So the Stan bid will be inclusive of everything.

I am aware of how well NRL does for Fox but there is a price point that they will get out.

Due to it not being worth it

 

[Wb1234]

Yes but the $500m AFL bid was on behalf of 9 Entertainment.

Olympics and Tennis was the same

So the Stan bid will be inclusive of everything.

I am aware of how well NRL does for Fox but there is a price point that they will get out.

Due to it not being worth it

If Stan are bidding for the pay tv portion it goes without saying nine are bidding for the fta portion lol

400 million from Fox
120 million from 9
Sky nz 35 million

 

[Iamback]

And if you believe the afl fox are paying them 400 million pa

Given its subscription tv nrl should be getting more

You really are an idiot.

There is no way Fox can afford $400m for AFL

2nd of all. They get no Subscribers from NZ and won't from PNG.

So while I think $500m is possible.

That will be FTA
Australia Pay TV
NZ TV
PNG TV

The result is the same for the game just different people paying

 

[Wb1234]

You really are an idiot.

There is no way Fox can afford $400m for AFL

2nd of all. They get no Subscribers from NZ and won't from PNG.

So while I think $500m is possible.

That will be FTA
Australia Pay TV
NZ TV
PNG TV

The result is the same for the game just different people paying

That’s the figure the afl claims they get paid by Fox

Nz have their own tv deal lol

Every post is getting worse

 

[Wb1234]

Seven and Foxtel to keep AFL rights in record $4.5bn seven-year deal | AFL | The Guardian

Agreement gives the code full control over production of games and secures a package of digital rights for 7plus

amp.theguardian.com

Afl tv deal 640 million pa and most of the tv increase came from Fox seven didn’t pay much more than last time

 

[The_Wookie]

Unless there is another poster on here called the wookie then no it was you

Regionals don’t matter only give city metro lol

And Im saying thats not something i believe Ive said. So Ill write it off to your usual bullshit - like usual.

 

[Wb1234]

And Im saying thats not something i believe Ive said. So Ill write it off to your usual bullshit - like usual.

That’s the thing about being around for so long people remember your bs

When explaining why afl was so good for tv it was because it’s shown in five capital cities and regionals don’t count

Now the narrative is ratings aren’t key for tv deals because there’s a gap of 50 million viewers on ratings numbers

Thing is the arlc aren’t following your bs

They know they are number one and are going into the tv negotiations with that fact in their minds

 

[The_Wookie]

Seven and Foxtel to keep AFL rights in record $4.5bn seven-year deal | AFL | The Guardian

Agreement gives the code full control over production of games and secures a package of digital rights for 7plus

amp.theguardian.com

Afl tv deal 640 million pa and most of the tv increase came from Fox seven didn’t pay much more than last time

Seven are paying 14% more than the 2024 rate in 2025 (which also hasnt been revealed - only a 146m average for the duration of 2020-2024. The final amount of for 2024 will be higher than 146m due to the way rights are structured.

Fox and Telstras contributions havent been stated anywhere officially.

 

[Wb1234]

Seven are paying 14% more than the 2024 rate in 2025 (which also hasnt been revealed - only a 146m average for the duration of 2020-2024. The final amount of for 2024 will be higher than 146m due to the way rights are structured.

Fox and Telstras contributions havent been stated anywhere officially.

So 647 million minus 146 million

Fox plus Telstra 501 million

Sure highlight how dumb these numbers are.

If Fox are paying 400 million (which really sounds like bs) then that means Telstra are paying 101 million

Lmao

 

[The_Wookie]

That’s the thing about being around for so long people remember your bs

If I ever did, I havent held that position in more than a decade. Show me a post if you can.

When explaining why afl was so good for tv it was because it’s shown in five capital cities and regionals don’t count

You might be mixing me up with Perth Red here. I have said that media reporting focuses on the capitals, but thats always been the case.,

Now the narrative is ratings aren’t key for tv deals because there’s a gap of 50 million viewers on ratings numbers

Raw ratings have never been the be all and end all - what we see publicly is not all there is to these things. There are other people with considerable industry knowledge on this board that have said as much.

Thing is the arlc aren’t following your bs

They arent following yours either.

They know they are number one and are going into the tv negotiations with that fact in their minds

They SAY they are number 1. The average ratings, when aggregated, indicate the same. If thats all that matters, then sure. Of particular note though, ratings matter less to Foxtel, than subscriptions, and they have never released that sort of data on a per sport basis.

 

[Iamback]

Seven are paying 14% more than the 2024 rate in 2025 (which also hasnt been revealed - only a 146m average for the duration of 2020-2024. The final amount of for 2024 will be higher than 146m due to the way rights are structured.

Fox and Telstras contributions havent been stated anywhere officially.

The 14% makes it a rumoured $170m from ch7

 

[The_Wookie]

So 647 million minus 146 million

Fox plus Telstra 501 million

Sure highlight how dumb these numbers are.

If Fox are paying 400 million (which really sounds like bs) then that means Telstra are paying 101 million

Lmao

We dont actually know. Telstra were paying $50m a year until 2024. We know from reporting that the next deal includes considerable contra from Telsta for work at Marvel. Its concievable that the additional contra from this deal is on top of the amount they had been paying - but no one really knows.

 

[Iamback]

We dont actually know. Telstra were paying $50m a year until 2024. We know from reporting that the next deal includes considerable contra from Telsta for work at Marvel. Its concievable that the additional contra from this deal is on top of the amount they had been paying - but no one really knows.

The government put in $250m for Marvel. Going halves with Telsta for that work seems a realistic starting point.

With inflation ( remembering the amount given was the total not the yearly amount )

$100m seems possible.
Add that to $170m for FTA

Leaves $370m for Fox.

all estimations but that includes the increases up until 2031. So working back you get a starting point that is well below $400m currently for Pay TV