Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[Wb1234]

25 percent less super rugby content yet a 33 percent increase in the value

Stan really are desperate aren’t they

 

[Perth Red]

“The AFL, for instance, is being paid $4.5 billion over seven years by Foxtel and Seven”

lol so wrong

In all likelihood Fox and Seven have paid around an avg of $500-520mill cash for AFL for 7 years. That's the bar we are aiming to beat. About a 30% increase on NRL's current deal.

Be interesting to see if NRL go for a longer deal as well or stick with the traditional 5 year deal.

 

[Wb1234]

In all likelihood Fox and Seven have paid around an avg of $500-520mill cash for AFL for 7 years. That's the bar we are aiming to beat. About a 30% increase on NRL's current deal.

Be interesting to see if NRL go for a longer deal as well or stick with the traditional 5 year deal.

I think the market for sports is heating up with the entry of Dazn

Union got 30 percent for less content

If we don’t get north of 600 million with our extra content and strong ratings then Pvl hasn’t hit his mark

 

[Foreign Legion]

25 percent less super rugby content yet a 33 percent increase in the value

Stan really are desperate aren’t they

I think this has more to do with the world cup, besides they'll spend it all on league players.... Sweep Sweep.

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

I think the market for sports is heating up with the entry of Dazn

Union got 30 percent for less content

If we don’t get north of 600 million with our extra content and strong ratings then Pvl hasn’t hit his mark

Somebody elsewhere said the increase may be due to the union wc and lions tour being included in the deal, hard to bloody understand otherwise.
The murdoch owned The Oz runs a lot of union stories still despite union not being on Foxtel anymore, leads sports story was even a union story the other day, wonder if murdoch`s tabloids are the same. Don`t ever see the telegraph so don`t know. Could be that The Oz`s demographic demand it.
That price increase would be explained had Foxtel had put a bid in, but funny we`ve heard no whispers, and would Foxtel bid for union without DAZN`s approval now, hard to imagine. Being a kind of global sport you`d think union might be DAZN`s thing.

 

[Iamback]

I think this has more to with the world cup, besides they'll spend it all on league players.... Sweep Sweep.

Correct home World Cup is the reason

 

[Wb1234]

Somebody elsewhere said the increase may be due to the union wc and lions tour being included in the deal, hard to bloody understand otherwise.
The murdoch owned The Oz runs a lot of union stories still despite union not being on Foxtel anymore, leads sports story was even a union story the other day, wonder if murdoch`s tabloids are the same. Don`t ever see the telegraph so don`t know. Could be that The Oz`s demographic demand it.
That price increase would be explained had Foxtel had put a bid in, but funny we`ve heard no whispers, and would Foxtel bid for union without DAZN`s approval now, hard to imagine. Being a kind of global sport you`d think union might be DAZN`s thing.

Stan had exclusive rights to extend till dec 31 which they showed no interest in

Then Dazn took over Fox and they pushed this deal though

Shows Stan really are keen for sports if they paid 40 million for a dud sport like Union

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

Correct home World Cup is the reason

And the Lions` tour ? if both of those are included it really is not that a big of increase.

 

[Foreign Legion]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/02/03/rugby-australia-closing-in-on-long-term-multimillion-dollar-deal-as-bonus-incentives-revealed/

 

[Wb1234]

“The Roar understands a deal is nearing sign-off and does not include the 2027 (men’s) and 2029 (women’s) World Cups.”

Lol. That expert from Penrith was wrong as usual

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/02/03/rugby-australia-closing-in-on-long-term-multimillion-dollar-deal-as-bonus-incentives-revealed/

Lots of union fans creaming their pants in the comments section, this bloke pouring cold water on the deal, btw, another comment says the $8m a year that Oz union gets from the Kiwi`s will probably be slashed, so all of a sudden the $4m/yr real increase not looking so flash.
They`re probably just stoked it didn`t really go backwards like they were expecting.



Sports Finance Guy
Roar Rookie
February 3rd 2025 @ 2:33pm

"Before anyone gets too excited about the revenue uplift, it’s important to look at the deal in real, not nominal terms. Using the Australian government’s Consumer Price Index, the new $210 million deal is the equivalent to only $163.3 million in 2015 dollars or only 57% of the $285 million RA received in back in 2015. Any business whose main revenue source declines by that much over the past ten years is in big trouble.
Also the much poo-pooed expiring $150 million media deal Hamish negotiated works out to $139.9 million in 2015 dollars, so the uplift from the new deal on that is $23.4 million in real terms, or only $4.6 million per year over the next five years. Not much help to dig out of RA’s financial hole, especially with player wages skyrocketing.
Now hitting the incentives would make things better, but until we know where the thresholds are set, the odds of the RA receiving that additional $40 million could be quite slim.
Hate to pour cold water on the parade, but until the RA boosts the Wallabies and Super Rugby’s popularity by drawing bigger crowds to the matches and more eyeballs to television screens, it still remains in a very precarious financial position."

Another comment:

Jetka
Roar Rookie
February 3rd 2025 @ 2:54pm

"Will be a lot of chuckling at NRL HQ over this. People who think this will turn rugby around in this country are delusional." Is that you @Wb1234 .

 

[Wb1234]

Lots of union fans creaming their pants in the comments section, this bloke pouring cold water on the deal, btw, another comment says the $8m a year that Oz union gets from the Kiwi`s will probably be slashed, so all of a sudden the $4m/yr real increase not looking so flash.
They`re probably just stoked it didn`t really go backwards like they were expecting.



Sports Finance Guy
Roar Rookie
February 3rd 2025 @ 2:33pm

"Before anyone gets too excited about the revenue uplift, it’s important to look at the deal in real, not nominal terms. Using the Australian government’s Consumer Price Index, the new $210 million deal is the equivalent to only $163.3 million in 2015 dollars or only 57% of the $285 million RA received in back in 2015. Any business whose main revenue source declines by that much over the past ten years is in big trouble.
Also the much poo-pooed expiring $150 million media deal Hamish negotiated works out to $139.9 million in 2015 dollars, so the uplift from the new deal on that is $23.4 million in real terms, or only $4.6 million per year over the next five years. Not much help to dig out of RA’s financial hole, especially with player wages skyrocketing.
Now hitting the incentives would make things better, but until we know where the thresholds are set, the odds of the RA receiving that additional $40 million could be quite slim.
Hate to pour cold water on the parade, but until the RA boosts the Wallabies and Super Rugby’s popularity by drawing bigger crowds to the matches and more eyeballs to television screens, it still remains in a very precarious financial position."

Another comment:

Jetka
Roar Rookie
February 3rd 2025 @ 2:54pm

"Will be a lot of chuckling at NRL HQ over this. People who think this will turn rugby around in this country are delusional." Is that you @Wb1234 .

Not me but he’s right

Nz will claw back half of that increase given their tv deal just got cut by 25 million plus pa

FYI they are paying around 10 million pa interest and they are running at a loss in the hope the lions and World Cup will pay it off

 

[Wb1234]

Just to compare

Super rugby tv deal nz and aus combined 135 million (new deals)

Current nrl deal 430 million
Future nrl deal 500 to 600 million

It’s why the nrl should be targeting nz they don’t have the money to compete

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

In all likelihood Fox and Seven have paid around an avg of $500-520mill cash for AFL for 7 years. That's the bar we are aiming to beat. About a 30% increase on NRL's current deal.

Be interesting to see if NRL go for a longer deal as well or stick with the traditional 5 year deal.

Red you were arguing to you were red in the face that their deal was going to be $160m/yr or whatever bigger than ours, now your saying it`s maybe less than $100m/yr, and that`s before our next deal. What gives, that`s an almighty turn-around.

 

[Wb1234]

Red you were arguing to you were red in the face that their deal was going to be $160m/yr or whatever bigger than ours, now your saying it`s maybe less than $100m/yr, and that`s before our next deal. What gives, that`s an almighty turn-around.

Perth getting an nrl team lol

 

[Foreign Legion]

The PNG NRL side secured a better deal then Rugby... lol

 

[Iamback]

And the Lions` tour ? if both of those are included it really is not that a big of increase.

No looks another inflation only increase.

the Roar article above even says Lions is cheap to be included

 

[Perth Red]

Red you were arguing to you were red in the face that their deal was going to be $160m/yr or whatever bigger than ours, now your saying it`s maybe less than $100m/yr, and that`s before our next deal. What gives, that`s an almighty turn-around.

All we know is AFL confirmed the deal was for $570mill cash a year. How much of that cash is Telstra for digital is unknown, but has historically been around the $30-50mill range

We dont know if the $2bill NRL announced was all cash or not. Interestingly in reports this last couple of weeks the $1.7billion figure has come up a few times for the NRL current deal. I wonder where that number has come from?

In all likelihood the gap between the two deals is somewhere in the $120-130mill a year range from 2025-2027. No small change.

 

[Iamback]

All we know is AFL confirmed the deal was for $570mill cash a year. How much of that cash is Telstra for digital is unknown, but has historically been around the $30-50mill range

We dont know if the $2bill NRL announced was all cash or not. Interestingly in reports this last couple of weeks the $1.7billion figure has come up a few times for the NRL current deal. I wonder where that number has come from?

In all likelihood the gap between the two deals is somewhere in the $120-130mill a year range from 2025-2027. No small change.

The $1.7m was in regards to DAZN that would Australia's side of it

 

[colly]

Red you were arguing to you were red in the face that their deal was going to be $160m/yr or whatever bigger than ours, now your saying it`s maybe less than $100m/yr, and that`s before our next deal. What gives, that`s an almighty turn-around.

Just to compare

Super rugby tv deal nz and aus combined 135 million (new deals)

Current nrl deal 430 million
Future nrl deal 500 to 600 million

It’s why the nrl should be targeting nz they don’t have the money to compete

Yes to get between 500-600 would be great. That's why i have gone for the two FTA and Fox/DANZ combo. With both FTA (9 and 10) we could pull up too $230m pa. IE twice what Nine pays now ie $115. If you look at it Nine will pay for the package, while Ten would dip their toe at $115 (it's not going to brake the bank)
That leaves Fox/DANZ to pay $320m pa for new b4 season Nines International over three Continents and a End of year International comp where games are played in the UK and Australia/Pacific which means extra 2 months content which make the increase compelling.....

Nine
Negative lose one FTA game
Positive gain two games on Stan pay for subscribers
Ten
No negative
Positive get into the action of a make major sport with 2 FTA games and 2 pay/Paramount+ games.

Foxtel/Kayo/DANZ

1month extra exclusive Nines international
4/5 Week extra content after GF=2+months extra content.
Also they lose a exclusive game to a shared gamed BUT BUT they gain a extra day/night ( as Nine and Ten ONLY have games on Friday/Sunday)
Incidentals
Both Nine and Ten have two games on thier FTA AND 2 games on thier payyTv version ie Stan and Paramount+ which provide some filler content.

To be serious to start this deal next year one would have to engage Nine by say a $20m discount where for the years 2026 and 2027 which they already hols a contract.
For Fox/KAyo/DANz they can tie up this deal with their payments staying the same for the years 2026 and 2027 BUT with 2 (pre season Nines and Internationals) and then going to $320m pa from 2028. Make it a 10 years deal at these prices with inflation adjustments over all years.