Next TV deal discussion 2028 -

[BuffaloRules]

Dazn have shown they’re happy to walk away if the numbers don’t stack up. They’ll know exactly what the value of nrl Is to foxtel and offer accordingly

What makes you say this ? In fact I thought they got their numbers way wrong on the French soccer deal ?

 

[colly]

In fact Foxtel/Kayo NEED the NRL. Otherwise the whole business plan explodes!
So in order of desperation I put Foxtel on top. Maybe 45%- to 55% customers walk if they don't have the NRL.

Foxtel's Billion-Dollar Sports Rights Portfolio: Key Details​

In a recent statement, Foxtel CEO Patrick Delaney highlighted that Foxtel holds over AUD $1 billion worth of sports broadcasting rights, reinforcing its dominance in Australia’s pay-TV and streaming sports market.

If the NRL revenue is 'lost' it lights out.
The way I see Kayo will increase their (from $260m pa) to over $330+, so they can keep the plates spinning so we say OK but we have 4FTA ( for the punters) Friday and Sunday on two networks, Nine and Network 10. A major package $145M ( a 20% increase ) and a minor Chanel 10 with $70m- apox Total deal $555m pa ( with NZ and PNG to come)
Anyway i explained it B4. So we ( decide) what exclusivity applies ( as it's our product).
This gives us freedom to move to other streamer/Partners if 'they try' to game us.

 

[Perth Red]

Last year FACT media deal ie only pay Tv and FTA TV, as per the thread name, the deal was NRL $400 plus million pa.
AFL only (2024) $420m pa. You never say it was $420m pa for the AFL. This and only this year it is different and by the end of this year the NRL will most likely announce a bigger yearly deal than AFL and you know it! Your got your Perth Team, loosen up!

W’ere not living in last year lol
2025 deals the numbers are what I’ve stated.
without knowing the telstra payment in 23&24 we don’t know how much of the $473mill afl deal for those years was tv.

 

[Perth Red]

What makes you say this ? In fact I thought they got their numbers way wrong on the French soccer deal ?

They’ve shown if the numbers don’t work they’ll happily walk away.

 

[newc18]

They’ve shown if the numbers don’t work they’ll happily walk away.

I find it hard to believe they will spend all that money buying Foxtel just to lose its arguably most important asset. I think it will a matter of how far Stan is willing to go.

 

[Perth Red]

I find it hard to believe they will spend all that money buying Foxtel just to lose its arguably most important asset. I think it will a matter of how far Stan is willing to go.

You wouldn’t think so but again they aren’t going to sign a deal that loses them money. They know the price point. What we need is Stan to be bidding to take them up to that max price point.

how much of foxtel is valued on sport subscription v it’s other services would be interesting to know. Other consideration is how far they can push up the price of kayo before subscribers bail given they’ll need to cover any increased rights payment.

 

[colly]

Nrl tv deal was announced as $400mill avg
afl media deal announced as $642mill avg

this deal need to be worth at least $550mill cash avg or Vlandys has failed again.

Do brake in down for us Perth Red. Simple like FoxtelKayo pays this Seven pays this for total of what.
You have to make it add to YOUR FIGURE of $642m pa.
I will help you Seven pay $170 pa for AFL..

The true cost of the AFL abandoning free-to-air Saturdays in its $4.5 billion TV deal

Could Gillon McLachlan and his team could have taken less money to give Seven one more game on a Saturday, or at least sacrifice some Foxtel cash for supporters in non-Victorian states?

www.smh.com.au

Seven West Media contributed an extra $20 million per year – from $150 million to $170 million – to retain its weekly three games, along with finals and exclusive rights to the grand final and the Brownlow Medal count.
So whats Foxte/Kayo paying the AFL

So Foxtel went overboard again for the AFL, But Don't panic we get/demand 30% increase ( pretty normal for Number 1 rating and number 1 Revenue maker for Foxtel/kayo) BUT give them less exclusivity. We Sell to more!

 

[BuffaloRules]

They’ve shown if the numbers don’t work they’ll happily walk away.

They signed a deal first… then walked away ..they obviously got their numbers wrong..

i don’t think the walking away part is happening this time

 

[BuffaloRules]

You wouldn’t think so but again they aren’t going to sign a deal that loses them money. They know the price point.

You mean like the French deal ..lol

 

[BuffaloRules]

DAZN to pay €100m termination fee to Ligue 1

The broadcaster is proposing the French league uses the money to invest in its own D2C service

www.broadcastnow.co.uk

“DAZN found subscriber numbers weren’t growing in line to make the deal worthwhile”….

Sound like a major case to me of not knowing the worth of what they agreed to buy …

 

[Perth Red]

DAZN to pay €100m termination fee to Ligue 1

The broadcaster is proposing the French league uses the money to invest in its own D2C service

www.broadcastnow.co.uk

“DAZN found subscriber numbers weren’t growing in line to make the deal worthwhile”….

Sound like a major case to me of not knowing the worth of what they agreed to buy …

Bit different when you're the incumbent rights holder and know exactly what has been paid and what its making, Doh!

 

[Iamback]

Sure, I follow the logic that the AFL deal is bigger because of more advertising opportunities, no argument there.

But it doesn't automatically follow that without Origin, the NRL deal is worth 20% it's current amount, that's ridiculous to suggest.

Every other game is shown on Fox at the same time, most have a lead in from another game.

It is hard with the Fox ratings hidden, but when we had both FTA games rated say 800k. Fox was say 400k.

FTA run their own commentary team etc for these, so isn't like they take the feed and keep costs down.

So you have full production for a product where 1/3 of the audience is watching a competitor.

That is a prime time game, the midday Sat arvo NRLW games would run at a loss.

I am using the $50m Origin valuation but if 1/3 of the 4m people are watching elsewhere then that $50m price drops dramatically

 

[BuffaloRules]

Bit different when you're the incumbent rights holder and know exactly what has been paid and what its making, Doh!

I think we have reached the stage where we say let’s wait and see what happens … they need to retain the NRL or risk a large devaluation on their recently acquired asset ….would be another bad look right on the heels of the French thing

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Every other game is shown on Fox at the same time, most have a lead in from another game.

It is hard with the Fox ratings hidden, but when we had both FTA games rated say 800k. Fox was say 400k.

FTA run their own commentary team etc for these, so isn't like they take the feed and keep costs down.

So you have full production for a product where 1/3 of the audience is watching a competitor.

That is a prime time game, the midday Sat arvo NRLW games would run at a loss.

I am using the $50m Origin valuation but if 1/3 of the 4m people are watching elsewhere then that $50m price drops dramatically

No, the NRL isn't worth 20% of its current value without Origin, crazy talk

 

[Iamback]

No, the NRL isn't worth 20% of its current value without Origin, crazy talk

I never said 20% of the deal. Origin has no affect on the Fox/NZ portion. The $115m from channel 9 is what takes a hit if Origin isn't exclusive

 

[titoelcolombiano]

I never said 20% of the deal. Origin has no affect on the Fox/NZ portion. The $115m from channel 9 is what takes a hit if Origin isn't exclusive

That's the line that gets around though. Origin makes up 80% of the NRLs broadcast deal. It's a ludicrous thing for media types to parrot without thinking about it

 

[Iamback]

That's the line that gets around though. Origin makes up 80% of the NRLs broadcast deal. It's a ludicrous thing for media types to parrot without thinking about it

Yes but there is some value still. So it wouldn't lose the full 80%

What other time slots would make a profit?

 

[Perth Red]

Ch7 are paying $170 mill for afl
ch9 currently pay around $85mill for nrl

even accounting for length of game and number of ads that’s quite a difference.

 

[Iamback]

Ch7 are paying $170 mill for afl
ch9 currently pay around $85mill for nrl

even accounting for length of game and number of ads that’s quite a difference.

AFL gets exclusive games on FTA, that is the big one.

Here is Sydney we get every Swans and GWS game on FTA, still rates poorly but it would rate. Would be even worse if like NRL the same game is done nationally

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Yes but there is some value still. So it wouldn't lose the full 80%

What other time slots would make a profit?

I don't know why you are asking me that. It wouldn't lose anywhere near 80% without Origin.

Let's play it out... So RL without Origin is worth roughly $15M but AFL, a comp with no Origin is worth $170M, even accounting for game length.

Yeah nah