Next TV rights deal part 2

[elbusto]

they talked about the optus stuff on offsiders and that old Victorian woman said 'the NRL aren't looking so stupid after all, having still got paytv & telco rights unsold, anything could happen there'

Good to hear.

 

[LESStar58]

they talked about the optus stuff on offsiders and that old Victorian woman said 'the NRL aren't looking so stupid after all, having still got paytv & telco rights unsold, anything could happen there'

Was it the lisping harpy Caro?

 

[docbrown]

Foxtel wanted:
* Status quo F2A coverage
* Seemed inflexible with Monday nights etc
* Wanted to restrict competitor streaming
* To pay a $ price that put downward pressure on future rights
Obviously all the benefits Foxtel to the detriment of the NRL.

9 wanted:
* Increased F2A coverage
* Have shown increased flexibility - such as Sunday afternoon live etc
* Wanted to act a streaming competitor
* Were willing to drive up the $ price
Although these things benefit 9 they also benefit the NRL.

Obviously the NRL were going to lock up 9 while the money in F2A was at a strong level. Who knows what $ value they would have gotten a year or two from now once 7 and/or 10 had been ruled out (by the AFL) and there would have been pressure within 9 to push down the auction price for something with few/no F2A competitors.

Except if you have a stake in the News Corp agenda, it's hard not to see the 9 deal as win-win for both parties.

Anyhow the clock is ticking for News Corp & Telstra. Every minute lost is a minute gained for their competition to build their infrastructure and business models. As said before by the 2nd or 3rd year of this deal their competitors will be on an even footing.

I agree with others that News want to lock this up this year but that's not to say they still won't be stubborn assholes. You have to keep in mind there's 27 months until the first ball is even kicked. To be honest the reaction by News plus the AFL deal gives the NRL a legitimate reason to say they should be offered similar (or even better) terms and they will argue that strongly. I think time will show that was a tactical mistake by News.

 

[elbusto]

Foxtel wanted:
* Status quo F2A coverage
* Seemed inflexible with Monday nights etc
* Wanted to restrict competitor streaming
* To pay a $ price that put downward pressure on future rights
Obviously all the benefits Foxtel to the detriment of the NRL.

9 wanted:
* Increased F2A coverage
* Have shown increased flexibility - such as Sunday afternoon live etc
* Wanted to act a streaming competitor
* Were willing to drive up the $ price
Although these things benefit 9 they also benefit the NRL.

Obviously the NRL were going to lock up 9 while the money in F2A was at a strong level. Who knows what $ value they would have gotten a year or two from now once 7 and/or 10 had been ruled out (by the AFL) and there would have been pressure within 9 to push down the auction price for something with few/no F2A competitors.

Except if you have a stake in the News Corp agenda, it's hard not to see the 9 deal as win-win for both parties.

Anyhow the clock is ticking for News Corp & Telstra. Every minute lost is a minute gained for their competition to build their infrastructure and business models. As said before by the 2nd or 3rd year of this deal their competitors will be on an even footing.

I agree with others that News want to lock this up this year but that's not to say they still won't be stubborn assholes. You have to keep in mind there's 27 months until the first ball is even kicked. To be honest the reaction by News plus the AFL deal gives the NRL a legitimate reason to say they should be offered similar (or even better) terms and they will argue that strongly. I think time will show that was a tactical mistake by News.

So the more stubborn they behave the more they allow others a chance to build a competitive bid? I hope they take their time then.

 

[Desert Qlder]

Doc what would you think the chances are of the NRL signing a short term subscription deal? Say three years like the EPL.

 

[Last Week]

Doc what would you think the chances are of the NRL signing a short term subscription deal? Say three years like the EPL.

Without speaking for doc, but I'd say next to no chance. There's a few reasons, but the topic at the moment seems to be the online and mobile streaming becoming mainstream. News and Telstra know that and will want to have the strongest content going into the shift. Fair to say that that shift will really gain moment by 2020, when the NBN should be complete. News and Telstra will pay top dollar to hold the rights going into the shift to streaming.

 

[Edwahu]

I don't see NBN as a pre-requisite to back a shift to streaming. Netflix is forecast to have more subscribers than Foxtel by the time the next deal comes around, and most of these will still be accessing it via ADSL or 4G with casting. Plenty access it that way now without complaint.

 

[Desert Qlder]

Without speaking for doc, but I'd say next to no chance. There's a few reasons, but the topic at the moment seems to be the online and mobile streaming becoming mainstream. News and Telstra know that and will want to have the strongest content going into the shift. Fair to say that that shift will really gain moment by 2020, when the NBN should be complete. News and Telstra will pay top dollar to hold the rights going into the shift to streaming.

I am sure that is what News and Telstra want but this is a negotiation.

A shorter deal may be the price they end up paying for securing such strong content. Not saying this is the likely outcome but so far the NRL negotiators have got it bang on regarding planning for the future.

 

[Last Week]

I am sure that is what News and Telstra want but this is a negotiation.

A shorter deal may be the price they end up paying for securing such strong content. Not saying this is the likely outcome but so far the NRL negotiators have got it bang on regarding planning for the future.

It's also advantageous for the NRL to have the deals marry up with the FTA deal for stronger negotiating in the next negotiations. If we signed a deal for only 3 years (2018 - 2020), we'll just be selling the same package again in 3 years time. And if we could only really sell it for 2 years(2021 - 2022). If we sold it for more than that, it limits our options of selling to FTA networks with Nine currently having rights for 2018 - 2022. If for example the Pay TV rights were sold for 3 years this time around (2018 - 2020) and then for 3 years again (2021 - 2023), the first year of the next FTA component (2023) would be limited in it's options as Pay TV would already have their share.

It just inhibits negotiating power for us as well as creates uncertainty of our income in a relatively short period.

 

[siv]

Check the nbnco website there was a big updated release on it that was pretty comprehensive. It even had my suburb on it for the first time.

Had another look - still nothing

 

[insert.pause]

Was it the lisping harpy Caro?

Yeah, that's him.

 

[Johnny88]

So how much do guys think the NRL will get for the sale of the rest of the rights. Be good if they were on par with the afl.

 

[ElectricEelMan]

So how much do guys think the NRL will get for the sale of the rest of the rights. Be good if they were on par with the afl.

Won't be on par with the AFL.
It will exceed.

 

[Johnny88]

Well if that's the case That's massive for the game.

 

[Last Week]

So how much do guys think the NRL will get for the sale of the rest of the rights. Be good if they were on par with the afl.

On a per year basis, I expect us to be a bit under their deal. Purely because of 9 games vs 8 and a 3 hour broadcast vs 2. But it really does come down to how good negotiators both sides have. Our benefit is that News and Telstra have very deep pockets, and we know they have plenty of room to move so we can push them.

I feel that this deal will actually be used to set us up for a better deal next round. Next time the rights come up in 2023 will be the most interesting since the 1990's IMO.

 

[whall15]

I don't see NBN as a pre-requisite to back a shift to streaming. Netflix is forecast to have more subscribers than Foxtel by the time the next deal comes around, and most of these will still be accessing it via ADSL or 4G with casting. Plenty access it that way now without complaint.

FTTN's a clusterf**k and its easier to stream pre-recorded content like Netflix does on shittier connections than it is live content iirc.

 

[herbert henry1908]

Given telstra own a significant percentage of foxtel would they allow optus to broadcast?

If it was an additional charge i couldnt see many except British expats doing it tbh. Will be out of sight of mind then, bolt on channels never do well relative to the master sports package

Fairly sure there's some legal provisions that allow these channels access to the Foxtel network.

Not as a normal package channel , but only as an add on.

ACCC would look upon Foxtel locking Optus out very poorly.

 

[herbert henry1908]

FTTN's a clusterf**k and its easier to stream pre-recorded content like Netflix does on shittier connections than it is live content iirc.

FTTN is actually good for the NRL.

It's significantly increased the speed of the roll out & it will easily provide speeds capable of streaming even 1080p.

FTTP roll out would have extended into the mid 2020's. Obviously its preferable long term , but for what the NRL and other sports need FTTN is easily enough.

 

[herbert henry1908]

On a per year basis, I expect us to be a bit under their deal. Purely because of 9 games vs 8 and a 3 hour broadcast vs 2. But it really does come down to how good negotiators both sides have. Our benefit is that News and Telstra have very deep pockets, and we know they have plenty of room to move so we can push them.

I feel that this deal will actually be used to set us up for a better deal next round. Next time the rights come up in 2023 will be the most interesting since the 1990's IMO.

A point to remember too is that the AFL's cost base is much higher.

More teams , more players = much higher payroll.

Which means less money to expand the code.

 

[Cumberland Throw]

Fairly sure there's some legal provisions that allow these channels access to the Foxtel network.

Not as a normal package channel , but only as an add on.

ACCC would look upon Foxtel locking Optus out very poorly.

Yeah im sure telstra aint massive fans of renting out their copper to competitors, but they have to do it..

same with fox...

the trick will be the price optus charges for the EPL channel(s)... seeing they paid a crap load, they will probably need to charge $20 ish a a month on top of fox bill