I agree but reckon it might win Oscar (really who cares about the other awards? - and even does it really matter with Oscars too?) by default because in general this year's crop isn't great plus a variety of other reasons that other movies won't win.
A Star Is Born will be in mix but as I said previously I reckon it'll be this year's "nominated for everything, win nothing".
Vice won't win because despite possibly getting 2 of the best acting awards, it's otherwise rubbish.
The Favourite won't win because funnily it has 3 absolute standout female performances that'll distract from an otherwise good movie.
Green Book won't win because of the backlash of pushing the white guy as the lead (he is) over the black guy.
Crazy Rich Asians & First Man both got released too early so their buzz is gone.
There's a foreign film Roma that might be in mix, because it's artsy.
My outsider is BlacKkKlansman although it probably got released too early.
Anyway I look forward to the Delboy virtue meltdown when any of it, Green Book, Crazy Rich Asians, Beale Street or Black Panther win