NRL 2022 Ladder

[Valheru]

You realise the draw is done in advance yeah, and when the draw was announced we were slated to play the Eagles twice, Knights twice and Titans twice. All teams that made the finals the year before. So very easily it could have been a harder drawer if those teams showed an iota of consistency.

Go look at every year and you'll see the exact same thing. People are just salty Sharks are having a good year. It's fantastic.

Thanks for that revelation.

Am I blaming the Sharks? Am I saying they should be given a shit draw next year?

It is completely valid to point out their soft draw this year even if it is hindsight.

They are certainly a top 8 team, I don't believe they would finish top 4 if not for an historically soft draw. Perhaps they will prove me wrong in the finals but I doubt it.

 

[Valheru]

You need to do these things on last years top places though.

Sharks played Manly ( 4th) Newcastle (7th) GC ( 8th) twice. So when the draw was done it wasn't so easy

Not a problem with that.

The fact is though when it is all said and done they play every bottom 8 team twice and only 1 top 8 team twice. That is statistically as soft as it can get. If Canberra sneak in that makes their draw slightly more difficult.

I'm not saying it's their fault, I am merely saying they would be fighting for a top 4 spot as opposed to top 2 if it was the same as the other teams in the 8. I believe the same can be said of the cowboys.

 

[Valheru]

Yes but the draw is done via the finishing positions, Aside from 5 day turn arounds the draw is pretty even when it is done

The draw isn't done on finishing positions anymore, that system went many years ago.

Clubs put preferences in for who they would like to play at home and it goes from there.

There is no perfect solution when you have a comp where the teams don't play each other twice. Outside of a conference system, the best option is probably to ensure every team plays each other 8 times (4 home and 4 away) over a 5 year period and you just go with the natural variation in strength of schedule that will cause knowing you can't predict form. That maths doesn't work with a 17th team but you get my drift.

 

[Tiger Shark]

Thanks for that revelation.

Am I blaming the Sharks? Am I saying they should be given a shit draw next year?

It is completely valid to point out their soft draw this year even if it is hindsight.

They are certainly a top 8 team, I don't believe they would finish top 4 if not for an historically soft draw. Perhaps they will prove me wrong in the finals but I doubt it.

Why is it historically soft? Have you compared to previous seasons. Can you show me this data?

Also are you looking at where the teams were positioned when we played them? Manly was in the 8 when we played them earlier. So they were a top 8 team when we won.

 

[Valheru]

Why is it historically soft? Have you compared to previous seasons. Can you show me this data?

Also are you looking at where the teams were positioned when we played them? Manly was in the 8 when we played them earlier. So they were a top 8 team when we won.

It is literally the softest it can possibly be. If you can find another example of a team finishing in the top 8 and playing every bottom 8 side twice within a 16 team comp then feel free to share it. Use the below link if you wish, I can't see where it has happened since 16 teams started in 2007. As it stands, the raiders may save you from being the first.

Rugby League Tables & Statistics

Rugby League Tables - NRL Stats & Tables

afltables.com

I am looking at the likely top 8 at end of season and applying the same metric to all the top 8 teams. You can go on about positions of teams when you played them, this being hindsight etc. all you like but facts are facts and the sharks have had the softest draw of all top 8 teams. They aren't the only ones though, to this point the cowboys have essentially had the same luck with the draw, they just finish with two top 8 teams whilst the sharks continue to ride their fortune.

Take a comparison of the sharks and roosters as an example. After our match in round 12 the roosters were ahead of sharks on point difference. Since then the sharks have had wins (for a 2nd time) against warriors, titans and wests which are all teams we have beaten but only play once each the entire season. Sharks record against the current top 8 is 5-3 (4-5 if you swap broncos with raiders) whilst the roosters is 6-5 (4-6 if you do the swap) so very similar. The difference between the 2 clubs so far this year is literally those 3 teams the sharks have played twice that the roosters have only played once and that discrepancy only increases the next two weeks.

You ride your luck though and sharks didn't create the draw, you can only play what's put in front of you and they deserve to be top 4. It is absolutely valid however to point to the draw when assessing their chances in the finals. I personally don't believe either sharks or cowboys are better than the teams currently sitting in places 5-7. I don't see either team making the GF. It's just a prediction though, they could prove me wrong.

 

[Jono078]

Parra vs Storm next week will probably be for top 4 spot.

Season shaping up for an exciting conclusion!

 

[footy75]

yeah last round

Parra v Storm for top 4

And likely Raiders and Brisbane fighting for 8th providing Souths beat Cows and Raiders beat Manly

 

[Valheru]

yeah last round

Parra v Storm for top 4

And likely Raiders and Brisbane fighting for 8th providing Souths beat Cows and Raiders beat Manly

Last round is looking immense.

That top 4 shoot out. Storm could go to 2nd, parra could drop to 6th.

Sharks/cowboys battling for 2nd

Souths could be battling to stay in the 8 with raiders/broncos or playing for a home final.

Roosters going for a home final at the new stadium.

 

[Floodwaters]

8th spot is going to finish 14 wins 10 losses more then likely. Compare that to last year Titans made 8th 10/14 and Knights in 7th with 12/12 so this year's Top 8 is alot stronger. 14/10 most seasons would get you in the 4.

 

[Captain Apollo]

 

[Floodwaters]

Raiders will more then likely finish 14/10 7th or 8th, think about how many games they've lost this year that they should have won, could easily be sitting 2nd.

 

[baselinepanther]

hmmmm


souths win tonight they're in
a match nextweek against their mortal enemies for a home final & the cows are in danger of going to shark park or penrith instead of hosting a final at home most likkely against the sharks

if souths lose tonight
the broncos are back in business with no concerns about F/A because if the bunnies lose to the chooks aswell
broncos just have to beat the dragons to finish 8th

still heaps of scenarios

 

[yobbo84]

So, if the Eels win, Souths and Roosters will be 6th and 7th no matter what, yes?

In that case, rest everyone

 

[Chimp]

you're confident with your top 5 & the Sharks at ..... 2 ?






as you wish
but wow

They've improved their roster no doubt , but this notion that Fitzgibbon is highly rated is a furphy , no one knows that , hes been an assistant & yeah a good one in a good system under a good head coach , same as Demetriou for Souths. Based on that unknown I can't have the Sharks any higher then 7th or 8th.

We’ll see on Fitz, but highly rated by Roosters and NSW people, and very impressive in the media so far - plus team look fitter, stronger and more organised than they have in last couple of years (though granted can’t take much from pre-season).
The way I see it though, there’s quite a few ‘top teams’ who’ve lost key players and depth, or who I think will slip back towards the pack as don’t see them sustaining previous performance (Souths, Manly, Panthers and Eels). Sharks weren’t a million miles away on their day last year, have replaced dead wood with top line talent, in areas they needed, look fitter, and have a new coach with big raps. I’m clearly optimistic (maybe naively) as they’re my team, but I think they can have a red hot crack. Good luck with injuries, other teams slipping, the very top teams not particularly getting stronger - there’s a gap there.

They've still got Moyza, deadest wood of all these days.

They’ll finish 2nd… Sharks won’t lose a game here on in (playing bottom 8 for rest of regular season)* - Cowboys will lose to Roosters, Souths and Panthers!

*and will win the whole thing

I’ll just leave this here….

 

[butchmcdick]

The Glebe Dirty Reds have got more chance of making the 8 then the Canberra Balders.

Dare to dream Glebe dirty reds

Destiny is all !!

 

[butchmcdick]

Coaching issue as well I think.

Yeah Payton really f**ked us this year

 

[baselinepanther]

Thursday
huge ... top 4 up for grabs

Friday
big but not critical now , the winner hosts week one final against the other

Sat
dragons beat broncos , the raiders don't even have to beat the tigers to make the 8 , if the broncos manage to win ( they won't win by 40 plus) then their only hope is a major upset & the tigers rolling the raiders in the last H/A game of the season.

 

[Valheru]

So, if the Eels win, Souths and Roosters will be 6th and 7th no matter what, yes?

In that case, rest everyone

Correct

But they won't know the result until after the 24 hour cut off to trim the squads.

 

[Valheru]

Friday
big but not critical now , the winner hosts week one final against the other

Only if eels win.

A storm win would see the roosters/souths winner go to 5th with the loser finishing 7th and playing parra in week 1.

 

[baselinepanther]

Only if eels win.

A storm win would see the roosters/souths winner go to 5th with the loser finishing 7th and playing parra in week 1.

true..