NRL Expansion: Google Trends data

[docbrown]

Time to kick the old hornets nest. It's been a while since I've needed to use Google Trends for work. Afterwards I was bored and started looking at some NRL stats versus other sports and possible expansion areas. Take these with a grain of a salt. Some data you'll like. Some you won't.

Also if you don't understand data and graphs leave now. This thread is not for you.

For most of these graphs the NRL/rugby league will be blue and the AFL will be red. The first data sets are for Australia wide and for this first post it's mostly NRL vs other sports leagues.

First up: NRL vs AFL over 20 years

If you look at that average columns you'll see that the ratio for 20 years is 62.8%. But notice the ratios of blue to red each year and look back at 2004:


The ratio in 2004 was 51.9%. So over the past 20 years the NRL has been closing the gap. Why was there a gap? I'd say a big part of it was the decline in interest in rugby league during/after Super League. So what's the gap like in 2023?


The ratio is now 76.7%. So in 20 years the NRL has gone from 51.9% of the AFL's effective internet presence to 76.7%. It could be argued that the AFL is in relative decline when compared to NRL.

Now let's bring other sports leagues into the mix.



and for cricket's sake I'll swap Big Bash for The Ashes (still purple).



Conclusion: AFL & NRL are streets ahead of cricket, A-League and Super Rugby. Even The Ashes peaks still fall short of the NRL and don't last anywhere near as long as the 7-8 month NRL/AFL seasons. I'd argue that Super Rugby peaked in 2005 and has been in decline since then.

So here is NRL & AFL versus Rugby Union - the Wallabies, Super Rugby & Rugby World Cups (Green).

You can see that interest in rugby union peaks during world cup cycles. But it's a peak once every 4 years for 6 weeks. Again - it can't compare to the NRL/AFL seasons frequency and longevity. The thing is Super Rugby & the Wallabies are now behind English Premier League.



EPL is more popular than Super Rugby & the Wallabies. However, that EPL popularity hasn't translated to the A-League.

In the next part I'll go into NRL expansion comparisons.

 

[docbrown]

Before I go into expansion trends. I want you to check out the growth in NBA support.


Of all the American sports leagues followed in Australia the NBA has the biggest support. But like EPL to A-League it hasn't translated to support for the NBL.

But if you were to argue sports league support I'd argue it goes AFL, NRL, NBA, Big Bash, Premier League, A-League, Super Rugby, NBL.

Now representative team support. For this graph I can't include AFL as their national team don't do anything and is a total joke. So in the red spot I've put the Kangaroos and for the blue it's State of Origin.

20 years
You can see most years State of Origin is the top representative sporting competition. It's consistent year in and year out. But look at that purple spike. That's the Matildas soccer team.

Now let's look at Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Swans - Australia wide:

20 years:

5 years:

Compare the blue and red columns. The Melbourne Storm are now as popular as the Sydney Swans, whereas the 20 year average was in favour of the Swans.

Here's the
Gold Coast clubs in QLD:



You can see when the Titans had free reign. Then in 2011 to 2015 the Suns were number one. But for the past 8 years the Titans are number one.

 

[docbrown]

But look at the trends in Queensland this year. I haven't included the Suns as they don't make the Top 5.


The NRL teams are dominating but look at the Dolphins introduction. The Dolphins out trended existing teams like the Cowboys & Titans. The Lions -- in a year in which they've made the grand final - trended on par with the 3rd biggest NRL team (North Queensland Cowboys) and on top of that the NRL had 3 other teams. QLD is an NRL state.

But if you're still not sure of it, check out the 20 year vs 5 year NRL vs AFL graph.
QLD:


The interest in AFL in QLD relative to the NRL has gone down in the past 5 years (compare the column graphs).

I'd expect a 3rd Brisbane NRL team to trend on par with the Cowboys/Dolphins. Again - just increasing the margin for the NRL.

So now ACT - 20 years vs 5 years:


AFL overtook the NRL with the GWS introduction but it's gone backwards and now the NRL are ahead. The NRL have won the past 5 years.

It's a similar story in New South Wales - 20 years vs 5 years:


Look at 2004 & 2009. It's almost on par. But the past 14 years have all been going backwards for the AFL despite the introduction of GWS.

 

[docbrown]

So now some other states/territories:

Northern Territory - 20 years vs 5 years - NRL slightly up


South Australia - slightly below


Tasmania - about the same


Victoria - about the same


WA: - slight increase

 

[docbrown]

Now onto New Zealand trends.

Here's NRL vs AFL. Note: AFL is going backwards relative to the NRL.


But let's compare NRL to Rugby Union - 20 year (33% ratio) to 5 year (46.7%). - NRL is increasing. NRL is blue, Super Rugby is green and Rugby Union is purple - the big purple spikes are the world cups.


New Zealand - Warriors vs Blues/Moana/Hurricane/Crusaders


The Warriors are the biggest 'rugby' club in New Zealand.
Past 5 years:

Warriors vs Blues (red) & Moana (yellow) in Auckland:

 

[_Johnsy]

Cheers doc, interesting read

 

[Pneuma]

Given I’m a stats perv I’m gonna love reading all this.

 

[docbrown]

Some takeaways for potential bid locations:

Perth
WA has an NRL/AFL ratio of 18% in 2023 compared to 11% in Victoria - and that's without a team. I'd argue that their cut-through - the ability of a new NRL team in Perth to cut through the AFL noise - will be far more successful in WA than the Storm has been in Victoria. My guess - it would probably double to 35% with a Perth NRL team. But who knows what will happen if the AFL admit a third AFL team? However, that could end up being more cannibalisation than expansion for them.

Queensland
Honestly - if the NRL ever introduced a 5th Queensland team - and potentially a Queensland NRL division with 20 All-Queensland derby/rivalry games, it's going to be really hard for other sports to get a look in.

New Zealand
The Warriors are the biggest rugby club in New Zealand. If the NRL can get the rest of New Zealand to back a New Zealand 2 side to create a genuine Rest of NZ vs Auckland rivalry, the second New Zealand NRL side would be the 2nd biggest rugby club in the country.

Adelaide
The ratio of 11% is the same as Victoria and like WA that's without a team. So again they might achieve more cut through than the Storm with only 2 AFL teams to compete with. But it's also a smaller market than Melbourne and Perth.

Melbourne
The Storm have a hard job trying to break through the noise of 9 AFL teams. However, their national trending shows that they are as strong a brand as the Sydney Swans so the potential is there. If they maintain that ratio as Melbourne grows towards 8 million people they'll be a massive club.

 

[Bukowski]

Some takeaways for potential bid locations:

Perth
WA has an NRL/AFL ratio of 18% in 2023 compared to 11% in Victoria - and that's without a team. I'd argue that their cut-through - the ability of a new NRL team in Perth to cut through the AFL noise - will be far more successful in WA than the Storm has been in Victoria. My guess - it would probably double to 35% with a Perth NRL team. But who knows what will happen if the AFL admit a third AFL team? However, that could end up being more cannibalisation than expansion for them.

Queensland
Honestly - if the NRL ever introduced a 5th Queensland team - and potentially a Queensland NRL division with 20 All-Queensland derby/rivalry games, it's going to be really hard for other sports to get a look in.

New Zealand
The Warriors are the biggest rugby club in New Zealand. If the NRL can get the rest of New Zealand to back a New Zealand 2 side to create a genuine Rest of NZ vs Auckland rivalry, the second New Zealand NRL side would be the 2nd biggest rugby club in the country.

Adelaide
The ratio of 11% is the same as Victoria and like WA that's without a team. So again they might achieve more cut through than the Storm with only 2 AFL teams to compete with. But it's also a smaller market than Melbourne and Perth.

Melbourne
The Storm have a hard job trying to break through the noise of 9 AFL teams. However, their national trending shows that they are as strong a brand as the Sydney Swans so the potential is there. If they maintain that ratio as Melbourne grows towards 8 million people they'll be a massive club.

So many great options to expand to. It's going to be hard for them to choose just the one.

 

[Pneuma]

But Queensland’s an AFL state. Gill and Caro said so!

 

[mongoose]

Some takeaways for potential bid locations:

Perth
WA has an NRL/AFL ratio of 18% in 2023 compared to 11% in Victoria - and that's without a team. I'd argue that their cut-through - the ability of a new NRL team in Perth to cut through the AFL noise - will be far more successful in WA than the Storm has been in Victoria. My guess - it would probably double to 35% with a Perth NRL team. But who knows what will happen if the AFL admit a third AFL team? However, that could end up being more cannibalisation than expansion for them.

Queensland
Honestly - if the NRL ever introduced a 5th Queensland team - and potentially a Queensland NRL division with 20 All-Queensland derby/rivalry games, it's going to be really hard for other sports to get a look in.

New Zealand
The Warriors are the biggest rugby club in New Zealand. If the NRL can get the rest of New Zealand to back a New Zealand 2 side to create a genuine Rest of NZ vs Auckland rivalry, the second New Zealand NRL side would be the 2nd biggest rugby club in the country.

Adelaide
The ratio of 11% is the same as Victoria and like WA that's without a team. So again they might achieve more cut through than the Storm with only 2 AFL teams to compete with. But it's also a smaller market than Melbourne and Perth.

Melbourne
The Storm have a hard job trying to break through the noise of 9 AFL teams. However, their national trending shows that they are as strong a brand as the Sydney Swans so the potential is there. If they maintain that ratio as Melbourne grows towards 8 million people they'll be a massive club.

Some really interesting stats.

I have had that same opinion about Perth for years, it should be an easier market to crack than Melbourne. The same way Brisbane is an easier market to crack for AFL than Sydney ever will be.

The interest in League in NZ is really underestimated. The game might be going backwards at grassroots but the interest in the NRL is definitely there.

 

[MugaB]

Some takeaways for potential bid locations:

Perth
WA has an NRL/AFL ratio of 18% in 2023 compared to 11% in Victoria - and that's without a team. I'd argue that their cut-through - the ability of a new NRL team in Perth to cut through the AFL noise - will be far more successful in WA than the Storm has been in Victoria. My guess - it would probably double to 35% with a Perth NRL team. But who knows what will happen if the AFL admit a third AFL team? However, that could end up being more cannibalisation than expansion for them.

Queensland
Honestly - if the NRL ever introduced a 5th Queensland team - and potentially a Queensland NRL division with 20 All-Queensland derby/rivalry games, it's going to be really hard for other sports to get a look in.

New Zealand
The Warriors are the biggest rugby club in New Zealand. If the NRL can get the rest of New Zealand to back a New Zealand 2 side to create a genuine Rest of NZ vs Auckland rivalry, the second New Zealand NRL side would be the 2nd biggest rugby club in the country.

Adelaide
The ratio of 11% is the same as Victoria and like WA that's without a team. So again they might achieve more cut through than the Storm with only 2 AFL teams to compete with. But it's also a smaller market than Melbourne and Perth.

Melbourne
The Storm have a hard job trying to break through the noise of 9 AFL teams. However, their national trending shows that they are as strong a brand as the Sydney Swans so the potential is there. If they maintain that ratio as Melbourne grows towards 8 million people they'll be a massive club.

Great insight, theres a few things missed warriors maybe the biggest club supported, but the is no "chiefs" or "highlangers" in the graphs, nor is there a
A look at what potential nsw team or png team would look like as the bid cases for both "NS bears" or the albo funded "pasifika"

 

[Billythekid]

Really interesting data, thanks for compiling this.

 

[docbrown]

But Queensland’s an AFL state. Gill and Caro said so!

Look at the 20 year time line for QLD. AFL peaked in Queensland in 2004 with the Lions three-peat. It was easier for them to cut-through with only the Broncos and Cowboys to compete with.

This year the Lions are headed for the Grand Final and yet they're only just rating a tiny bit above NRL teams that didn't even make the Top 8. For most of the year the Dolphins & Cowboys were ahead of them. In fact, if the Lions had dropped off in the last two months performance wise, they probably would have come 4th out of 5 in the rankings. It'll be interest to see what they rank in a dud year as with 4 NRL teams at least 1 or 2 are likely to make the Top 8 each year from now on. Like I said a 5th NRL team in Queensland is just blanket coverage.

 

[docbrown]

Some really interesting stats.

I have had that same opinion about Perth for years, it should be an easier market to crack than Melbourne. The same way Brisbane is an easier market to crack for AFL than Sydney ever will be.

The interest in League in NZ is really underestimated. The game might be going backwards at grassroots but the interest in the NRL is definitely there.

The thing that surprised me is that WA has remained at the constant 18% ratio for 20 years without a team. It hasn't gone backwards even as the AFL has grown due to population growth.

According to this data, AFL interest in Sydney has gone backwards since GWS' introduction.

Re: Queensland you can see the past five year is all swinging back towards the NRL. A 5th QLD NRL team would just drown out other sports.

As for New Zealand, what amazed me was that NRL out polled Super Rugby. You're talking 1 local NRL team against 6 Super Rugby teams and the NRL is still more popular. Crazy.

 

[docbrown]

Great insight, theres a few things missed warriors maybe the biggest club supported, but the is no "chiefs" or "highlangers" in the graphs, nor is there a
A look at what potential nsw team or png team would look like as the bid cases for both "NS bears" or the albo funded "pasifika"

You can only export 5 search terms on a graph otherwise it gets too cluttered. Here's the 20 year & 5 year Warriors vs Highlanders/Chiefs.



The Warriors whole season in 2023 rated higher than the Chiefs winning the Super Rugby.


Basically see that spike in 2023 for both? There was DOUBLE the interest in the Warriors making the finals than the Chiefs winning the Super Rugby.

Getting data for the Bears and a hypothetical PNG team is hard because they don't exist. It should surprise you that Rugby League in PNG is popular. I think this worldwide search result for NRL pretty much sums it up:


Support for NRL in PNG is so strong that it actually skews the data for the whole world.

So basically the way you read this is that interest in New Zealand for NRL is about half what it is Australia. And then interest in Australia for NRL is about 8% of what it is in PNG - or more so that interest in NRL in PNG is 12-13 times bigger than what it is in Australia.

But because PNG is so obsessed with Rugby League it total skews the rest of the world's data.

As for the Bears you can see that interest peaked in 2007 when they were up for a spot against the Titans.

Since then they've had about a quarter of the interest. That said it's been fairly steady. Funnily enough, they're still most popular on the Central Coast:

 

[docbrown]

Another look at Queensland:


Obviously the Broncos rule to roost - no surprises there. But look at those Cowboys peaks. They're capable of being as high as the Broncos. This suggests that in general if the Broncos fail to make the 8 but the Cowboys do, rugby league fans in Queensland will swing their attention to the Cowboys. Most likely also with the Dolphins & Titans too. You can see that hype for the Dolphins this year too.

 

[docbrown]

And now the ranking of existing NRL clubs. Before anyone complains - again - take this with a grain of salt.

1. Souths. 2 & 3. Bulldogs & Eels. 4 & 5. Broncos & Tigers.



Not many surprises there. Broncos are a big team - probably the biggest - but the other 4 Sydney clubs all operate out of the biggest state in the country and have a widespread support. This year we achieved record crowds with only 3 Sydney teams in the mix. Imagine if we have a top 8 with these 4 Sydney clubs in it at the same time.

6, 7 & 8. Storm, Sea-Eagles & Dragons. 9. Roosters. 10. Panthers



Storm and the other Sydney clubs. There's not much separating these clubs but I'm surprised that the Dragons are still so high.

11. Sharks 12. Knights. 13. Raiders. 14. Cowboys. 15. Titans.


The Sharks - the smallest Sydney club and the regional NRL clubs. No surprises there. As for the Warriors, these are Australian results and they ranked on par with the titans. Add New Zealand though and they're somewhere in the middle of the pack. I also left out the Dolphins as they're too new.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Can you do NRL vs Super Rugby comparisons for ACT, VIC and WA?

 

[wain]

Doc...fantastic analysis, thank you! I can only hope we have people with passion in these areas working at NRL HQ.

A few questions and observations.

1) Is the interest levels localised or Aus wide? Because when I see stats like that suggesting that for those few years GWS were as big in ACT as Raiders, I find that hard to believe. Is it localised support, or is that interest shown nationally? In other words, could they have seemed as popular due to more people in Melbourne googling them due to their local AFL team playing against a high-flying GWS? Does national interest add bias to local support? Does that make sense? I think the same thing regarding GC Suns.

2) I agree with your comments on how well the Storm track, considering their market.

3) Again, I agree with yours thoughts regarding a WA team being successful. With the high amount of expats, I think their supporter base is ready made. Also, a possible backdoor entry into South African popularity through some living in WA and either sharing info with family back home, or them moving back to South Africa.

4) Obviously, these results show the importance of successful clubs...most noticable in single-team cities, such as Storm in Melb, or Syd in AFL. Your comments regarding blanket coverage and almost ensuring a local club makes finals make sense too.

5) Unsurprising to see RU tumble in the Australian standings, but surprising to see the decline in NZ...even though much has been said of the Warriors recent improvement. I wonder how many years of success a club needs to sustain some popularity? Can we keep RL popularity when Warriors slide? Is that reason enough for a 2nd team?

6) Finally, its pretty remarkable how the gap is widening between AFL and NRL versus the rest. The two have certainly increased their gap.

My own ramblings re: expansion...why is it that when we talk about possibly going to WA with a team, that we dont think there is any fans or that PVL says don't bother as they're 'rusted on AFL fans', yet we get so defensive about protecting our own areas against AFL? Do we question that our fans aren't as rusted on as theirs? We can't have it both ways. You either think cross-code can work in Syd/Bris the same as in Perth/Melbourne...or the AFL fans are rusted on, and so are NRL. I would think Ipswich would be more rusted on to NRL than Perth people to AFL.