NRL Expansion: Google Trends data

[Bukowski]

Exactly. Why as a League fan in Australia would you be scared or worried about Union of all games.

He's just embarrassing himself. Union LOL

 

[nko11]

Time to kick the old hornets nest. It's been a while since I've needed to use Google Trends for work. Afterwards I was bored and started looking at some NRL stats versus other sports and possible expansion areas. Take these with a grain of a salt. Some data you'll like. Some you won't.

Also if you don't understand data and graphs leave now. This thread is not for you.

For most of these graphs the NRL/rugby league will be blue and the AFL will be red. The first data sets are for Australia wide and for this first post it's mostly NRL vs other sports leagues.

First up: NRL vs AFL over 20 years
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If you look at that average columns you'll see that the ratio for 20 years is 62.8%. But notice the ratios of blue to red each year and look back at 2004:

View attachment 79792
The ratio in 2004 was 51.9%. So over the past 20 years the NRL has been closing the gap. Why was there a gap? I'd say a big part of it was the decline in interest in rugby league during/after Super League. So what's the gap like in 2023?

View attachment 79793
The ratio is now 76.7%. So in 20 years the NRL has gone from 51.9% of the AFL's effective internet presence to 76.7%. It could be argued that the AFL is in relative decline when compared to NRL.

Now let's bring other sports leagues into the mix.

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and for cricket's sake I'll swap Big Bash for The Ashes (still purple).
View attachment 79794


Conclusion: AFL & NRL are streets ahead of cricket, A-League and Super Rugby. Even The Ashes peaks still fall short of the NRL and don't last anywhere near as long as the 7-8 month NRL/AFL seasons. I'd argue that Super Rugby peaked in 2005 and has been in decline since then.

So here is NRL & AFL versus Rugby Union - the Wallabies, Super Rugby & Rugby World Cups (Green).
View attachment 79795
You can see that interest in rugby union peaks during world cup cycles. But it's a peak once every 4 years for 6 weeks. Again - it can't compare to the NRL/AFL seasons frequency and longevity. The thing is Super Rugby & the Wallabies are now behind English Premier League.

View attachment 79796
View attachment 79797
EPL is more popular than Super Rugby & the Wallabies. However, that EPL popularity hasn't translated to the A-League.

In the next part I'll go into NRL expansion comparisons.

Bit of a bump to an old thread - But I've found Google Trends data to be a very accurate representation to show interest - especially between events or sports. Every week you can get a pretty good idea of how TV Ratings will go by looking at the Google Trends data. You could tell the TV Ratings for last years finals series were going to be massive as soon as you saw the trends data on those night.

Also just want to make a note early in this post - the data far and away spikes during actual gametime - so by virtue, AFL has an advantage by going for 3 hours over 2 hours, which over a season adds up to 648 hours vs 426 hours. So this data actually pretty accurately captures any extra value that the AFL would have over the NRL in media rights by it's longer duration - think cumulative minutes rather than average. If you were to compare the actual popularity between the two (say if the AFL went to 2 hours broadcast slot) - the AFL's data would drop considerably. Theoretically around 15-33% - this is also taking into account that AFL has more overlapped hours of gametime, NRL does not have this.

Sidenote-
This is actually an advantage going forward for the NRL as expansion moves forward - they can fill up more slots without overlapping games - think current Friday night, AFL can only have 1 game - 3 hours- without overlapping, whereas the NRL can have 2 games - 4 hours - without overlapping. 2 hour blocks are much easier to work with. As both competitions look to move past 20 teams - this makes the NRL's value for each new game past 10 games higher than the AFL's - which would likely need to include more overlapping broadcast times, as they are already hitting a hard limit for unique valuable timeslots - 1x Thurs, 1xFri, 4x Sat & 3x Sun - the 10th game will likely either have to be an overlap or in an extremely fan unfriendly timeslot - Monday night - anything past 10 games is even more a headache. So the threshold for new teams to add to the value of NRL broadcast rights will be lower. Long story short - NRL expansion past 20 teams is more viable and by virtue of this, the NRL has a greater chance for geographical and population coverage by teams. For the NRL they could theoretically have - 1xThurs, 2xFri, 5xSat, 4xSun without overlap. 12 games before they run into the same issue that AFL is facing, already with it's 9th game.

I digress, I just wanted to make a follow-up post from the post above. Key figure being the 76.7% ratio in 2023 (2/3rds of the way through the year).This figure is the ratio between NRL and AFL interest across Australia.

2023: 75% (finalised)
2024: 75%
2025: 82.4%
2026: 88.1% (So far)



This data becomes more pronounced when the search is extended to Worldwide trends. Last year for the first time, the NRL had a higher search volume worldwide. This is apt as it reflects the NRL's current goal of growth internationally and also includes New Zealand.

Ratio so far for 2026: 62/60 = 103.3%
If current tradjectories continue, especially with Perth & PNG entering the comp - we should see the NRL build a solid lead in the worldwide trends and draw even closer in National trends.

 

[stratocaster]

I digress, I just wanted to make a follow-up post from the post above. Key figure being the 76.7% ratio in 2023 (2/3rds of the way through the year).This figure is the ratio between NRL and AFL interest across Australia.

2023: 75% (finalised)
2024: 75%
2025: 82.4%
2026: 88.1% (So far)



This data becomes more pronounced when the search is extended to Worldwide trends. Last year for the first time, the NRL had a higher search volume worldwide. This is apt as it reflects the NRL's current goal of growth internationally and also includes New Zealand.

Ratio so far for 2026: 62/60 = 103.3%
If current tradjectories continue, especially with Perth & PNG entering the comp - we should see the NRL build a solid lead in the worldwide trends and draw even closer in National trends.

Go back even further to 2019 before Covid. The Australian NRL to AFL ratio was 67%.

Where has NRL increased in interest in Australia compared to AFL? Pretty much everywhere.

NSW 2019 NRL to AFL 320%.
NSW 2026 NRL to AFL 373%.

QLD 2019 NRL to AFL 204%
QLD 2026 NRL to AFL 253%

ACT 2019 NRL to AFL 141%
ACT 2019 NRL to AFL 171%

NT 2019 NRL to AFL 43.5%
NT 2026 NRL to AFL 60% -- at this rate NRL overtakes AFL in NT in 17 years

VIC 2019 NRL to AFL 10.3%
VIC 2026 NRL to AFL 12.8% -- NRL is essentially drowned out in Victoria by AFL but it's still growing

WA 2019 NRL to AFL 8.9%
WA 2026 NRL to AFL 16% -- almost doubled in interest in 7 years and without a team -- this will go the 30% ratio several years after the team is introduced, as WA, unlike Victoria, only has 2 AFL teams.

TAS 2019 NRL to AFL 10.6%
TAS 2026 NRL to AFL 16.2% -- AFL hype in Tasmania should be increasing on the eve of the new team. Yet the NRL is growing in comparison.

Essentially, NRL is up massively in its home states and is growing in WA & TAS.

As for New Zealand, it's a difficult comparison as AFL is pretty much unpopular there. But you can see that NRL has doubled in popularity compared to AFL in that time.

NZ 2019 NRL to AFL 883%
NZ 2026 NRL to AFL 1900%

The better comparison is NRL vs AFL vs Super Rugby

NZ 2019 NRL to SR 152% AFL to SR 19%
NZ 2025 NRL to SR 265% AFL to SR 17.6%

So NRL has grown massively in New Zealand and AFL has gone backwards. I used 2025 for this comparison because SR starts 3 weeks earlier and we're so earlier into the season it skews the data.

But really when you're talking internationally, interest for all three leagues outside of our local region is statistically small enough you can't accurately compare the data (e.g. interest in England in AFL is less that 1% Australian's interest - in reality it's something like 0.01% etc - too small for google trends to compare).

However, it's good to compare how Australia, NZ and PNG in all 3 codes and the ratios of popularity in each. It will also show you how sports mad PNG is and how much they search for sport.

People in PNG make around 33% more searches than people in Australia do for AFL. But don't get too excited AFL fans - I'll come back to that PNG number later. In comparison, New Zealanders make only 2.7% of the searches for AFL that Australians do -- basically non existent.

Obviously Super Rugby is most popular in New Zealand. However, PNG makes about 74% of the volume of searches that New Zealanders make - again we'll come back to that number late when we compare NRL to AFL to SR in PNG. However, Australians make only 11% of the searches for Super Rugby compared to what New Zealanders do. Interest for Super Rugby in Australia is declining rapidly.

The NRL is much more interesting. New Zealanders make 60% of the total searches for the NRL that Australians do. It makes New Zealand's interest in NRL on par with that of New South Wales'. New Zealand is essentially a rugby league (and rugby union) territory, regardless of what Rugby Union fans say.

But here comes the PNG part. People in PNG search for NRL at TWENTY TIMES the volume that Australians do. Consider that the equivalent of saying it is twenty times as popular in PNG as it is in Australia (where it is already #1). Essentially, when you think about the 33% for AFL, 74% for SR numbers, the equivalent number for NRL in PNG is 2000%.

In PNG, the ratio of searches is 51:4:1 (NRL:AFL:SR).

So while PNG is sports mad, Super Rugby has 1.9% and AFL has 7.8% of the popularity that the NRL has (remember by the same metrics NRL in Tasmania has 16% to AFL - just as a comparison).

So this should explain why we're getting the PNG Chiefs and eventually a second New Zealand team.

 

[i0Nic]

Great analyses both.

Just puts some hard numbers on what we can all see - rugby league is growing in stature in this country and worldwide at a much faster rate than the competitors, who seem to be going backwards.

Whether it’s tv viewership and social media engagement which have already taken over afl, and soon general search interest and total revenue, it will be hard to dispute in a few years that NRL is the most popular code in the country and the pacific.

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

Great analyses both.

Just puts some hard numbers on what we can all see - rugby league is growing in stature in this country and worldwide at a much faster rate than the competitors, who seem to be going backwards.

Whether it’s tv viewership and social media engagement which have already taken over afl, and soon general search interest and total revenue, it will be hard to dispute in a few years that NRL is the most popular code in the country and the pacific.

All I can say is thank god I`m a Rugby League fan, exact accuracy aside, those trends are alarming and would be depressing if you followed any other code. Poor old fumbles. We won`t even mention the union. lol. Love it.

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

Go back even further to 2019 before Covid. The Australian NRL to AFL ratio was 67%.

Where has NRL increased in interest in Australia compared to AFL? Pretty much everywhere.

NSW 2019 NRL to AFL 320%.
NSW 2026 NRL to AFL 373%.

QLD 2019 NRL to AFL 204%
QLD 2026 NRL to AFL 253%

ACT 2019 NRL to AFL 141%
ACT 2019 NRL to AFL 171%

NT 2019 NRL to AFL 43.5%
NT 2026 NRL to AFL 60% -- at this rate NRL overtakes AFL in NT in 17 years

VIC 2019 NRL to AFL 10.3%
VIC 2026 NRL to AFL 12.8% -- NRL is essentially drowned out in Victoria by AFL but it's still growing

WA 2019 NRL to AFL 8.9%
WA 2026 NRL to AFL 16% -- almost doubled in interest in 7 years and without a team -- this will go the 30% ratio several years after the team is introduced, as WA, unlike Victoria, only has 2 AFL teams.

TAS 2019 NRL to AFL 10.6%
TAS 2026 NRL to AFL 16.2% -- AFL hype in Tasmania should be increasing on the eve of the new team. Yet the NRL is growing in comparison.

Essentially, NRL is up massively in its home states and is growing in WA & TAS.

As for New Zealand, it's a difficult comparison as AFL is pretty much unpopular there. But you can see that NRL has doubled in popularity compared to AFL in that time.

NZ 2019 NRL to AFL 883%
NZ 2026 NRL to AFL 1900%

The better comparison is NRL vs AFL vs Super Rugby

NZ 2019 NRL to SR 152% AFL to SR 19%
NZ 2025 NRL to SR 265% AFL to SR 17.6%

So NRL has grown massively in New Zealand and AFL has gone backwards. I used 2025 for this comparison because SR starts 3 weeks earlier and we're so earlier into the season it skews the data.

But really when you're talking internationally, interest for all three leagues outside of our local region is statistically small enough you can't accurately compare the data (e.g. interest in England in AFL is less that 1% Australian's interest - in reality it's something like 0.01% etc - too small for google trends to compare).

However, it's good to compare how Australia, NZ and PNG in all 3 codes and the ratios of popularity in each. It will also show you how sports mad PNG is and how much they search for sport.

People in PNG make around 33% more searches than people in Australia do for AFL. But don't get too excited AFL fans - I'll come back to that PNG number later. In comparison, New Zealanders make only 2.7% of the searches for AFL that Australians do -- basically non existent.

Obviously Super Rugby is most popular in New Zealand. However, PNG makes about 74% of the volume of searches that New Zealanders make - again we'll come back to that number late when we compare NRL to AFL to SR in PNG. However, Australians make only 11% of the searches for Super Rugby compared to what New Zealanders do. Interest for Super Rugby in Australia is declining rapidly.

The NRL is much more interesting. New Zealanders make 60% of the total searches for the NRL that Australians do. It makes New Zealand's interest in NRL on par with that of New South Wales'. New Zealand is essentially a rugby league (and rugby union) territory, regardless of what Rugby Union fans say.

But here comes the PNG part. People in PNG search for NRL at TWENTY TIMES the volume that Australians do. Consider that the equivalent of saying it is twenty times as popular in PNG as it is in Australia (where it is already #1). Essentially, when you think about the 33% for AFL, 74% for SR numbers, the equivalent number for NRL in PNG is 2000%.

In PNG, the ratio of searches is 51:4:1 (NRL:AFL:SR).

So while PNG is sports mad, Super Rugby has 1.9% and AFL has 7.8% of the popularity that the NRL has (remember by the same metrics NRL in Tasmania has 16% to AFL - just as a comparison).

So this should explain why we're getting the PNG Chiefs and eventually a second New Zealand team.

Just out of interest where does someone like Reece Walsh fit into this, who has I believe more social media followers than any individual Rugby League or fumble club.

 

[stratocaster]

Just out of interest where does someone like Reece Walsh fit into this, who has I believe more social media followers than any individual Rugby League or fumble club.

Social media is a different kettle of fish to google searches. More people will search for the NRL and Broncos than an individual player because they're broader terms. But what you see is a spike for Walsh whenever there is a spike for the Broncos.

 

[stratocaster]

Also for 2025 for Worldwide trends (so New Zealand etc is included) for NRL, AFL, A-League, Super Rugby, Big Bash, NBL and Super Netball clubs:

Brisbane Broncos 16 - #1 club across all major leagues and usually is regardless of GF
New Zealand Warriors 14 - #1 club in NZ across all major leagues
Collingwood Magpies 13 - #1 AFL club - about 81% as popular as the Broncos
Canterbury Bulldogs 10 - #1 Sydney NRL club
Brisbane Lions 10 - peak in GF year
Melbourne Storm 9 - peak in GF year. 150% more searches than Swans. #2 Victorian team above other AFL teams
Penrith Panthers 9 - #4 tie for NRL
Adelaide Crows 8 - #3, 4, 5, 6 AFL tie
Geelong Cats 8
Carlton Blues 8
Hawthorn Hawks 8
Sydney Roosters 7 - #6 NRL
Melbourne City FC 7 - #1 & 2 tie - top A-League teams - on par with 6th most popular NRL team
Sydney FC 7 - note: more searches than the Swans - on par with the second tier NRL teams
South Sydney Rabbitohs 6 - #7, 8, 9, 10, 11 NRL tie for 5 Sydney teams
Parramatta Eels 6
Wests Tigers 6
St George Illawarra Dragons 6
Cronulla Sharks 6
Sydney Swans 6 - on par with the 7th-11th ranked NRL clubs
West Coast Eagles 6 - #7, 8, 9, 10 AFL tie
Fremantle Dockers 6
Essendon Bombers 6
Auckland FC 6 - #2 club of any league in NZ (more than Super Rugby)
Melbourne Victory 6
Sydney Sixers 6 - #1 cricket team
Manly Sea Eagles 5 - #12 NRL
Port Adelaide Power 5 - #11 AFL
Adelaide United 5
Brisbane Roar 5
Perth Glory 5
Western Sydney Wanderers 5
Sydney Thunder 5
Newcastle Knights 4 - #13, 14 NRL tie
Canberra Raiders 4
GWS Giants 4 - #12-14 AFL tier - smaller than every Sydney NRL team
Western Bulldogs 4
Richmond Tigers 4
Central Coast Mariners 4
Newcastle Jets 4
Macarthur FC 4
Wellington Phoenix 4
Brisbane Heat 4
Hobart Hurricanes 4
Melbourne Renegades 4
Melbourne Stars 4
Perth Scorchers 4
The Dolphins 3 - #15, 16, 17 NRL tie - all 3 Queensland teams... hmm...
North Queensland Cowboys 3
Gold Coast Titans 3
Gold Coast Suns 3 #15, 16, 17, 18 AFL tie
North Melbourne Kangaroos 3
Melbourne Demons 3
St Kilda FC 3
Crusaders 3 - #1 Super Rugby team - 22% of Warriors searches
Western United 3
Adelaide Strikers 3
NSW Waratahs 2 - tie for a bunch of super rugby teams
QLD Reds 2
ACT Brumbies 2
Chiefs 2
Hurricanes 2
Western Force 1
Fijian Drua 1
Highlanders 1
Moana Pasifika 1
Sydney Kings 1 - #1 NBL teams - 6% of the Broncos search volume
Rest of NBL 1 or less
Super Netball teams - less than 1

 

[James Rick]

Go back even further to 2019 before Covid. The Australian NRL to AFL ratio was 67%.

Where has NRL increased in interest in Australia compared to AFL? Pretty much everywhere.

NSW 2019 NRL to AFL 320%.
NSW 2026 NRL to AFL 373%.

QLD 2019 NRL to AFL 204%
QLD 2026 NRL to AFL 253%

ACT 2019 NRL to AFL 141%
ACT 2019 NRL to AFL 171%

NT 2019 NRL to AFL 43.5%
NT 2026 NRL to AFL 60% -- at this rate NRL overtakes AFL in NT in 17 years

VIC 2019 NRL to AFL 10.3%
VIC 2026 NRL to AFL 12.8% -- NRL is essentially drowned out in Victoria by AFL but it's still growing

WA 2019 NRL to AFL 8.9%
WA 2026 NRL to AFL 16% -- almost doubled in interest in 7 years and without a team -- this will go the 30% ratio several years after the team is introduced, as WA, unlike Victoria, only has 2 AFL teams.

TAS 2019 NRL to AFL 10.6%
TAS 2026 NRL to AFL 16.2% -- AFL hype in Tasmania should be increasing on the eve of the new team. Yet the NRL is growing in comparison.

Essentially, NRL is up massively in its home states and is growing in WA & TAS.

As for New Zealand, it's a difficult comparison as AFL is pretty much unpopular there. But you can see that NRL has doubled in popularity compared to AFL in that time.

NZ 2019 NRL to AFL 883%
NZ 2026 NRL to AFL 1900%

The better comparison is NRL vs AFL vs Super Rugby

NZ 2019 NRL to SR 152% AFL to SR 19%
NZ 2025 NRL to SR 265% AFL to SR 17.6%

So NRL has grown massively in New Zealand and AFL has gone backwards. I used 2025 for this comparison because SR starts 3 weeks earlier and we're so earlier into the season it skews the data.

But really when you're talking internationally, interest for all three leagues outside of our local region is statistically small enough you can't accurately compare the data (e.g. interest in England in AFL is less that 1% Australian's interest - in reality it's something like 0.01% etc - too small for google trends to compare).

However, it's good to compare how Australia, NZ and PNG in all 3 codes and the ratios of popularity in each. It will also show you how sports mad PNG is and how much they search for sport.

People in PNG make around 33% more searches than people in Australia do for AFL. But don't get too excited AFL fans - I'll come back to that PNG number later. In comparison, New Zealanders make only 2.7% of the searches for AFL that Australians do -- basically non existent.

Obviously Super Rugby is most popular in New Zealand. However, PNG makes about 74% of the volume of searches that New Zealanders make - again we'll come back to that number late when we compare NRL to AFL to SR in PNG. However, Australians make only 11% of the searches for Super Rugby compared to what New Zealanders do. Interest for Super Rugby in Australia is declining rapidly.

The NRL is much more interesting. New Zealanders make 60% of the total searches for the NRL that Australians do. It makes New Zealand's interest in NRL on par with that of New South Wales'. New Zealand is essentially a rugby league (and rugby union) territory, regardless of what Rugby Union fans say.

But here comes the PNG part. People in PNG search for NRL at TWENTY TIMES the volume that Australians do. Consider that the equivalent of saying it is twenty times as popular in PNG as it is in Australia (where it is already #1). Essentially, when you think about the 33% for AFL, 74% for SR numbers, the equivalent number for NRL in PNG is 2000%.

In PNG, the ratio of searches is 51:4:1 (NRL:AFL:SR).

So while PNG is sports mad, Super Rugby has 1.9% and AFL has 7.8% of the popularity that the NRL has (remember by the same metrics NRL in Tasmania has 16% to AFL - just as a comparison).

So this should explain why we're getting the PNG Chiefs and eventually a second New Zealand team.

Do you have any figures for South Australia? It would be interesting to see if NRL is growing there as well, and I'm sure NRL overtaking AFL in NT would be a popular topic on big footy LOL.

 

[stratocaster]

Do you have any figures for South Australia? It would be interesting to see if NRL is growing there as well, and I'm sure NRL overtaking AFL in NT would be a popular topic on big footy LOL.

South Australia is minimal growth in the same period 10% to 10.5%. In 2012 it was 7.8% so there has been some growth over the decade. That said, unlike WA, there's no indication of a new club coming or a consistent NRL strategy, so I wasn't surprised by it.

In 2005 WA was 2.5% a 40:1 ratio. In 2025 it was 17.8%. I honestly think it'll be 30% in 10 years after the Bears come in. SA can achieve a similar trajectory.

 

[stratocaster]

If you really want to see how the game has recovered since SuperLeague, here are the figures from 2004/2005 to now, comparing the ratio of NRL:AFL searches:

NSW 2004 150% --> 373%
Interest in AFL as a ratio to NRL has halved since 2004 (or conversely, NRL now has more than double the interest of AFL). If there was time for AFL to "take over" NSW, it was 2004. Spoiler alert: they didn't. They are further from that goal than 20 years ago.

QLD 2004 117% --> 253%
Similar to NSW.

ACT 2004 52% --> 171%
In 2004, NRL had half the searches that AFL did. You could have argue it was an AFL territory at the time potentially. Not now.

VIC 2004 9% --> 12.8%
AFL will always dominate this market so the Storm and NRL will always have their work cut out for them.

WA 2004 <1% --> 16.6%
SA 2004 <1% --> 10.5%
TAS 2004 <1% --> 16.2%
Non existent post Super League to a latent interest.

In New Zealand, forget NRL and AFL. Just look at NRL to Rugby Union as a search term:
NZ 2004 13.3% --> 72.4%

We already know NRL interest in NZ now outrates Super Rugby. But this is a search for anything rugby union related in NZ -- All Blacks, Super Rugby, right down to local comps. You can also see how All Blacks searches (yellow) were huge in 2004 compared to NRL -- but in 2025 the NRL is now getting close to those All Black peaks.

 

[James Rick]

South Australia is minimal growth in the same period 10% to 10.5%. In 2012 it was 7.8% so there has been some growth over the decade. That said, unlike WA, there's no indication of a new club coming or a consistent NRL strategy, so I wasn't surprised by it.

In 2005 WA was 2.5% a 40:1 ratio. In 2025 it was 17.8%. I honestly think it'll be 30% in 10 years after the Bears come in. SA can achieve a similar trajectory.

Victoria and South Australia are the two hardest states to crack in my opinion, the following of AFL is cult like and both states are already won by the AFL in terms of the code wars. If/when the NRL put a team in Adelaide they can carve out a solid niche following similar to the Storm, but nothing that'll threaten the AFL stranglehold.

Western Australia is interesting because AFL participation and TV ratings have been declining in recent years. I'm not sure how much of that can be put down to the AFL flagship team West Coast being a dumpster fire, but given the fact that Rugby League has seen a strong increase in interest over the same time period even before the Bears were announced there is definitely a cause for concern from an AFL perspective. In my opinion the potential is there for Rugby League to experience a meteoric rise in Western Australia similar to what we've seen in New Zealand and the Bears can definitely become the WA version of the NZ Warriors, especially with how parochial the people in WA are.

Tasmania is also interesting because there is no organised Rugby League competition in the state yet interest has been increasing strongly in recent years, like you said the new AFL team should be seeing the gap between AFL and NRL increasing but the data shows that it's not. I would love to see the NRL put more work into Tasmania but it's unlikely due to Tasmania being way down the list of markets the NRL is focusing on when it comes to potential growth.

 

[Mother Nature's Son]

given the fact that Rugby League has seen a strong increase in interest over the same time period even before the Bears were announced there is definitely a cause for concern from an AFL perspective. In my opinion the potential is there for Rugby League to experience a meteoric rise in Western Australia similar to what we've seen in New Zealand and the Bears can definitely become the WA version of the NZ Warriors, especially with how parochial the people in WA are.

Probably the FIFO factor from the Eastern States plays a decent part of it.
Migrants from England, South Africa and NZ would probably be more interested in the Rugby`s as well, given League`s dominance in that sphere, we probably attract some interest from there as well.

 

[Dragonwest]

Victoria and South Australia are the two hardest states to crack in my opinion, the following of AFL is cult like and both states are already won by the AFL in terms of the code wars. If/when the NRL put a team in Adelaide they can carve out a solid niche following similar to the Storm, but nothing that'll threaten the AFL stranglehold.

Western Australia is interesting because AFL participation and TV ratings have been declining in recent years. I'm not sure how much of that can be put down to the AFL flagship team West Coast being a dumpster fire, but given the fact that Rugby League has seen a strong increase in interest over the same time period even before the Bears were announced there is definitely a cause for concern from an AFL perspective. In my opinion the potential is there for Rugby League to experience a meteoric rise in Western Australia similar to what we've seen in New Zealand and the Bears can definitely become the WA version of the NZ Warriors, especially with how parochial the people in WA are.

Tasmania is also interesting because there is no organised Rugby League competition in the state yet interest has been increasing strongly in recent years, like you said the new AFL team should be seeing the gap between AFL and NRL increasing but the data shows that it's not. I would love to see the NRL put more work into Tasmania but it's unlikely due to Tasmania being way down the list of markets the NRL is focusing on when it comes to potential growth.

The influx of Kiwi's and east coasters in WA continues chasing work, I'm not surprised.