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NRL Expansion: Google Trends data

docbrown

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
wain said:
Doc...fantastic analysis, thank you! I can only hope we have people with passion in these areas working at NRL HQ.

A few questions and observations.

1) Is the interest levels localised or Aus wide? Because when I see stats like that suggesting that for those few years GWS were as big in ACT as Raiders, I find that hard to believe. Is it localised support, or is that interest shown nationally? In other words, could they have seemed as popular due to more people in Melbourne googling them due to their local AFL team playing against a high-flying GWS? Does national interest add bias to local support? Does that make sense? I think the same thing regarding GC Suns.

2) I agree with your comments on how well the Storm track, considering their market.

3) Again, I agree with yours thoughts regarding a WA team being successful. With the high amount of expats, I think their supporter base is ready made. Also, a possible backdoor entry into South African popularity through some living in WA and either sharing info with family back home, or them moving back to South Africa.

4) Obviously, these results show the importance of successful clubs...most noticable in single-team cities, such as Storm in Melb, or Syd in AFL. Your comments regarding blanket coverage and almost ensuring a local club makes finals make sense too.

5) Unsurprising to see RU tumble in the Australian standings, but surprising to see the decline in NZ...even though much has been said of the Warriors recent improvement. I wonder how many years of success a club needs to sustain some popularity? Can we keep RL popularity when Warriors slide? Is that reason enough for a 2nd team?

6) Finally, its pretty remarkable how the gap is widening between AFL and NRL versus the rest. The two have certainly increased their gap.

My own ramblings re: expansion...why is it that when we talk about possibly going to WA with a team, that we dont think there is any fans or that PVL says don't bother as they're 'rusted on AFL fans', yet we get so defensive about protecting our own areas against AFL? Do we question that our fans aren't as rusted on as theirs? We can't have it both ways. You either think cross-code can work in Syd/Bris the same as in Perth/Melbourne...or the AFL fans are rusted on, and so are NRL. I would think Ipswich would be more rusted on to NRL than Perth people to AFL.
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1) Check the bars with the colour keys. The first couple are sports league comparisons for Australia wide and then I go into specific states for NRL vs AFL. That one was for ACT specifically and was google searches in ACT. The funny is that if you look at Raiders vs GWS in ACT specifically you get this:
1695613842743.png
1695613874317.png
Turns out it wasn't so much support for GWS but actually just general support for AFL which has since evaporated. But on a team vs team graph it's actually one-sided to the Raiders.

5) Honestly, I was expecting the RU tumble in Australia but the New Zealand figure were eye-opening. But look at the 20 year timelines. It's not just recent - Warriors have been polling strong for 20 years. So they've been popular regardless of performance.

6) See - my next post.
 
docbrown

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
NRL vs AFL Worldwide

Now the previous posts are for Australia, Australian states or New Zealand. To account for the Warriors support in New Zealand you have to do a Worldwide search:
1695615457275.png
1695615477548.png
So basically the NRL in Australia & New Zealand is pretty much on par with AFL in 2023.
 

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B

Bukowski

Juniors
Messages
2,356
Thanks for all your posts. It puts to bed the talk that NRL is behind rugby and soccer in WA. And the overstated threats of AFL in Brisbane. We own that city.
 
LimeRick

LimeRick

Juniors
Messages
72
I can't figure Google trends very well.

Is there away to segregate it into age brackets?

It'd be interesting to see if there's closer ratios for younger groups you'd expect to be less dyed-in-the-wool. So potentially more younger NRL fans in the southern states, but more younger AFL fans in the northern states?
 
mongoose

mongoose

Coach
Messages
11,711
LimeRick said:
I can't figure Google trends very well.

Is there away to segregate it into age brackets?

It'd be interesting to see if there's closer ratios for younger groups you'd expect to be less dyed-in-the-wool. So potentially more younger NRL fans in the southern states, but more younger AFL fans in the northern states?
Click to expand...
I know my 15yo niece has suddenly taken an interest in NRL, specifically the Broncos cause "ReECe"..
 
docbrown

docbrown

Coach
Messages
11,842
LimeRick said:
I can't figure Google trends very well.

Is there away to segregate it into age brackets?

It'd be interesting to see if there's closer ratios for younger groups you'd expect to be less dyed-in-the-wool. So potentially more younger NRL fans in the southern states, but more younger AFL fans in the northern states?
Click to expand...
No because there's no way of knowing the age of the person searching. If you want to know youth interest, look at youth-oriented social media followers on platforms like Instagram and Tik Tok.

For instance - Melbourne Storm has 348k instagram followers and Sydney Swans has 196k. Or Tik tok - Storm 255k & Swans 131k.

For comparison - Rabbitohs 307k/169k. Collingwood 351k/202k.

So you could argue that the Melbourne storm's demos of 10-25s (Gen Alpha, Z and Z/Y cuspers) is on par/slightly bigger than Collingwood's and bigger than the Rabbitohs or the Swans.
 
Get Rid of The Donkeys

Get Rid of The Donkeys

Coach
Messages
14,677
Bukowski said:
Have a look at real data @Get Rid of The Donkeys .
League shits all over your union crap in WA
Click to expand...

This is your evidence for RL "shitting" on RU in WA?

For the bulk of the timeline "rugby union" has been on top of "NRL" in WA. It's only since the Western Force were axed by the ARU -- and the competition lost all relevance -- that RL has developed a slight increase over RU.

It doesn't change the fact there's three times as many people playing RU than RL in Perth and the Reds were never as well supported as the Force.
 
B

Bukowski

Juniors
Messages
2,356
Get Rid of The Donkeys said:
This is your evidence for RL "shitting" on RU in WA?

For the bulk of the timeline "rugby union" has been on top of "NRL" in WA. It's only since the Western Force were axed by the ARU -- and the competition lost all relevance -- that RL has developed a slight increase over RU.

It doesn't change the fact there's three times as many people playing RU than RL in Perth and the Reds were never as well supported as the Force.
Click to expand...
No, I live in Perth. I know that league is way more popular than union.
But you go on about union, you seem to love it.
 
Get Rid of The Donkeys

Get Rid of The Donkeys

Coach
Messages
14,677
Bukowski said:
No, I live in Perth. I know that league is way more popular than union.
But you go on about union, you seem to love it.
Click to expand...

You think a Perth-based NRL team will average 25k fans to its games. Not even @Perth Red is that delusional.

RU in Perth has 12k players.
RL in Perth has 4k.

TV ratings for regular season games in Perth on 9Gem range between 6-15k.
 
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