This is an update to something I said earlier, but my ideal scenario would be:
Next two years
Expansion side 1: Wellington
Expansion side 2: Perth
The establishment of Wellington and Perth would help secure a better TV deal through increased time slots, providing a revenue boost for expansion at the end of the next TV deal. Wellington would provide competition to Rugby and the Warriors.
End of next TV deal
Expansion side 3: Brisbane 2
Expansion side 4: Joint Pacific first grade side
(Pacific nations reserve grade sides).
A second Brisbane side would provide additional competition in the Queensland market.
Rather than an individual PNG/Fiji/Tonga/Samoa/etc side, I'd like to see the establishment of a Joint Pacific side based out of Port Moresby or Fiji, which takes in players from all these nations, but also has some Australian/Kiwi players. The idea behind this would be to establish the initial governance/infrastructure/profile etc required to run a first grade side in a major competition, with a view to setting in place the standards required for individual sides in PNG/Fiji/etc.
To that end, and to support the Joint Pacific side, individual nations would establish reserve grade sides that form part of the national reserve grade comp in the NRL, with players from each of those individual sides feeding into the Joint Pacific side. This would essentially
1) support the success of the Joint side and
2) create a pipeline of teams that as they reach maturity, they become viable options for joining the first grade comp as their own individual side.
Around 2020-25 and commencement of relevant new TV deal
Expansion side 5: Fiji or PNG
Expansion side 6: Adelaide
In relation to Fiji or PNG, both options open up new international markets, but in line with the above, appear to be the most mature options in the Pacific.
Adelaide is a direct attack on AFL.
2025 onwards (and end of relevant TV deal)
Depends on the game's growth. Options could include a second Melbourne or Perth side, a Darwin side or a Central Queensland side. I'm less and less inclined to see a Central Coast side each day that passes, but monitoring how the AFL expands could change this.
I'd also like to see from now (with a view to future expansion):
- At least two games per round taken interstate (one game) and overseas (one game, within the region), with a view to potential expansion 20-25 years down the track (or beyond). Options could include Tasmania, Indonesia (massive potential market with a huge economy and population base), the Pacific nations, into Japan with their interest in Rugby, Darwin, Adelaide, and others.
- When the NRL returns to profitability, expected to be this year with a $40 million surplus, establish a ongoing, sustainable, grants program run by the ARLC for grassroots clubs and competitions, with a view to establishing a strong set of feeder clubs for the national competition, along with a long-term purpose of creating a pipeline of clubs for potential expansion. Grants would be assessed against key criteria, to ensure money is not wasted, with two streams available:
- Club Futures Stream: Available for investing in physical assets that will support the sustainability, attractability, and financial viability of clubs. Projects will need to demonstrate a return on investment to the ARLC and applicant. Return on investment will ideally be financial (i.e. get your money back), but might include securing enough players to have an u-16 side; training and skills development equipment; refurbishment of on-ground infrastructure such as sheds and spectator facilities; etc.
- Competition Futures Stream: Available for the development of strategic plans or capability development plans that will support the sustainability and growth of local competitions. Examples might include the preparation of a competition-wide governance framework; preparation of an ongoing, strategic recruitment and diversification plan, which will be actioned by on-ground NSWRL/QRL/CRL/etc representatives; or the development of a skills development plan for identified gaps in the competition's staff/volunteers, such as budgeting.
- (In relation to the last example, if a competition identifies the need for skills training, the club can approach the ARLC for a grant to pay for this training under the Club Futures Stream, as long as the proposal stacks up)
- The establishment of on-ground NRL offices in PNG, Fiji, Samoa, Indonesia and other locations to help promote the code overseas. Promotion could include the provision of grant money to projects local clubs propose that will improve playing infrastructure (e.g. a new storage shed or irrigating a field); arranging current and former stars to meet with local teams and business owners; arranging attendance for senior executives to attend games in Australia; identifying sponsorship options; providing information packs, fact sheets, rule books, coaching guides etc to locals planning to establish new clubs or in need of help for their own club; etc.
- An open opportunity for expansion sides to join the u20s comp, as long as they can prove they are viable. This would be good exposure for clubs and will help them get structures in place for a first grade side;
- The creation of a national reserve grade competition (which includes the teams above).
