I have tried to read most of this thread so forgive me if I missed something similar to what I am about to say, but I think that to properly analyse this we need to take into account the nature of the regular season before we begin to look at how the finals should work.
* We know that we have a salary cap that is designed to even out the competition.
* However, we also have some games in which players are ineligible because they play Origin and a draw which does not pit every team playing against each other twice.
These things do not work together in harmony. If the business structure is such that talent is evenly distributed, then the competition draw should be constructed in a similar fair manner. Currently, it is the luck of the draw that could mean you play teams that have lost many players for Origin, or not. It is the luck of the draw that could mean you play a team that is diffiuclt to beat at home only once per year, on their home ground, while someone else will play them at home.
This is not to take into account the fatigue that hits Origins players both during and after that period, leading to some coaches resting their stars etc etc.
All these things, plus more, causes serious issues with over-rewarding the Minor Premiers, as the Minor Premiership might be awarded to a team that benefited from these inconsistencies throughout the season.
In other words, it is nearly impossible to argue that any finals system can be fairer than another, as the regular season is not fair!
Example:
If we were to say that the results up to 3 games might differ because of these inconsistencies (in the case of St George last year we could argue that the Origin period caused their slump, as much as I'd like to think it was a great Golden Point performance by Parra that sucked them of their momentum
) we can easily see why the Minor Premiership should not be over-rewarded.
As an example, if we took 6 points off the first and second teams last year, Melbourne drop from 1st to 3rd and Manly drop from 2nd to 3rd (only for and against stopping them from being 4th).
If we look at 2010 the differences are even more pronounced. A difference of 6 points would take Saints from 1st to 4th (only for and against saving them from dropping to 6th) and Penrith would go from 2nd to 7th!
What does this mean for the construction of the finals?
Well, I think it shows that the Minor Premiers should not get too much help, at least in comparison to teams 2-3 and even 4. It also means that perhaps teams 5 and 6 and perhaps even 7 and 8 should not be as disadvantaged as we thought they were in McIntyre.
So, to me, this means that the finals system should look to uphold other virtues, the main one being that every team should know their fate before the game is played, as there is no doubt that performance (as well as the atmosphere of the fans etc) can be affected by the knowledge that the game is sudden-death.
Let's let the finals be finals and that means you need to win the big games and the big moments. Players (and fans) should know whether that last minute field goal or conversion is keeping them in the comp or not. Imagine if we knew that Anasta's field goal in 2010 was to save their season??
No-one should be sitting around waiting to find out whether they are still in the comp or not. To me, this was the single biggest problem with Mcintyre and has been resolved.
