OT: Current Affairs and Politics

[Gronk]

I'm moving back towards a position of a significant fall in house prices, actually.

I know the responsible lending laws are eased in March but change in credit growth continues to be negative (down to 2.2%, now) and that's a horrible sign.

Plus we have the end of insolvent trading and the end of rent moratoriums in the end of December, and loan holidays and JS/JK ending in March.

Come June/July these things will have kicked in and things will not be rosy. I'm now sitting somewhere around a 10% fall in 2021.

Nah, I dont reckon. It’s harsh, but the majority of the pandemic redundant workers are not or were not likely to be home owners. They work in retail and hospitality so I dont reckon that it will have much impact at all. The figures might move a few % here and there in a few sectors like tourism areas butnot noticable.

Watch for an upswing in the SMSF sector now that the investment lending screws have been eased. I’ll prolly buy another.

 

[hindy111]

Only if you think the price will go up. If you think it will go down, sell all your silver

Whats the alternative pay rent?

 

[Gronk]

The smell of hypocrisy is thick in the air.

 

[hindy111]

I'm moving back towards a position of a significant fall in house prices, actually.

I know the responsible lending laws are eased in March but change in credit growth continues to be negative (down to 2.2%, now) and that's a horrible sign.

Plus we have the end of insolvent trading and the end of rent moratoriums in the end of December, and loan holidays and JS/JK ending in March.

Come June/July these things will have kicked in and things will not be rosy. I'm now sitting somewhere around a 10% fall in 2021.

10% is not that large. Once things heat up it can bounce 10% in less then a year. Btw I have a spare room. Want to rent it from me?

 

[hindy111]

Nah, I dont reckon. It’s harsh, but the majority of the pandemic redundant workers are not or were not likely to be home owners. They work in retail and hospitality so I dont reckon that it will have much impact at all. The figures might move a few % here and there in a few sectors like tourism areas butnot noticable.

Watch for an upswing in the SMSF sector now that the investment lending screws have been eased. I’ll prolly buy another.

I do not know one person who has been effected as of yet. Acutaly one friend lost 20% of pay for 3mths. I know plenty of people who are flying since the corona.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Or a lesson on how to not let an outsider come in an expose that you've been selling your office for decades, using your family to do the dirty work so you don't have to declare anything and can just go about your merry way f**king the world for personal gain.

You can only expose it properly if you don’t repeat many of the same mistakes or invent spectacular new ones.

 

[Gronk]

I do not know one person who has been effected as of yet. Acutaly one friend lost 20% of pay for 3mths. I know plenty of people who are flying since the corona.

I have had a few clients who have been impacted and lost jobs. But I suspect that companies are being advantageous in difficult times. If ANZ Bank announced 2,500 job cuts in normal times, there would be a huge brouhaha. But during covid, merkins just let it go through to the keeper. Call me a cynic, but I reckon there's a bit of that going on.

Also there was jobseeker which was double the normal dole and came with zero accountability. I reckon there have been a few non-workers who registered for unemployment just to get the cash because they didn't have tp front up to centrelink and apply for jobs. IIRC it's called disguised unemployment - something about merkins who would like a job but it's not imperative and merkins who have given up. @crocodile will need to add more to that. He know his shit.

There are still many many businesses receiving jobkeeper 2.0 and it will be interesting what happens when that finishes in March.

I agree with you however, my business has not really been impacted and remains pretty strong.

 

[hindy111]

I have had a few clients who have been impacted and lost jobs. But I suspect that companies are being advantageous in difficult times. If ANZ Bank announced 2,500 job cuts in normal times, there would be a huge brouhaha. But during covid, merkins just let it go through to the keeper. Call me a cynic, but I reckon there's a bit of that going on.

Also there was jobseeker which was double the normal dole and came with zero accountability. I reckon there have been a few non-workers who registered for unemployment just to get the cash because they didn't have tp front up to centrelink and apply for jobs. IIRC it's called disguised unemployment - something about merkins who would like a job but it's not imperative and merkins who have given up. @crocodile will need to add more to that. He know his shit.

There are still many many businesses receiving jobkeeper 2.0 and it will be interesting what happens when that finishes in March.

I agree with you however, my business has not really been impacted and remains pretty strong.

I know a few buisness that had 20 odd workers. They where forced to shut for 6 weeks so everyone got jobkeeper. They reopened. Due to how it works they where paid the job keeper for these workers for the whole 6mth period. Once you where seemed eligble that is how it worked so she was collecting close to 20k a week for the next 20 weeks. I heard this 2nd hand so I can not confirm 100% but other contractors I know have said the same thing. Aslong as where eligble even if work picked up it didnt matter. You received it for the 6mth period.

 

[Gronk]

I know a few buisness that had 20 odd workers. They where forced to shut for 6 weeks so everyone got jobkeeper. They reopened. Due to how it works they where paid the job keeper for these workers for the whole 6mth period. Once you where seemed eligble that is how it worked so she was collecting close to 20k a week for the next 20 weeks. I heard this 2nd hand so I can not confirm 100% but other contractors I know have said the same thing. Aslong as where eligble even if work picked up it didnt matter. You received it for the 6mth period.

Jobkeeper 1.0 ($3,000/m) required you to demonstrate a 30% drop from last year to now. The method was very flexible and it was very easy to come up with a loss and qualify. Jobkeeper 2.0 ($2,400/m) is harder to get and runs from Sept to March.

 

[Gronk]

1800's vs 2000's

 

[hindy111]

Jobkeeper 1.0 ($3,000/m) required you to demonstrate a 30% drop from last year to now. The method was very flexible and it was very easy to come up with a loss and qualify. Jobkeeper 2.0 ($2,400/m) is harder to get and runs from Sept to March.

Yes.... It was a drop in either March or April only. Whilst the second is a drop across a 3mth period which would be harder to cook.
I can understand a sole trader who may of lost a 1-2 months work which may of cost them 10k-20k being eligble for 6mths.Yheyd break even. It seems strange to me a buisness of 20 employs may of lost profit for the same period but then collect 20k a week. Does this make sense to you?
After 6 weeks the employees where back working. Yet 20k a week being collected for let's say 4mths seems like a massive piss take

 

[Gary Gutful]

@crocodile will need to add more to that. He know his shit.

*He’s

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Whats the alternative pay rent?

I suppose you could hire some silver.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

Nah, I dont reckon. It’s harsh, but the majority of the pandemic redundant workers are not or were not likely to be home owners. They work in retail and hospitality so I dont reckon that it will have much impact at all. The figures might move a few % here and there in a few sectors like tourism areas butnot noticable.

Watch for an upswing in the SMSF sector now that the investment lending screws have been eased. I’ll prolly buy another.

Look, I can see both sides but, really, but I think i should stake my position clearly so I can be ridiculed fairly if it doesn't come to pass. The flip side of this is I can gloat about being right if my predictions comes true. No fence sitting - stake my position and I have done that.

In terms of retail/hospitality - they may not own houses but they rent them. That means property investors will be impacted if these people either downsize, move back home, or cram more people into less houses. And a lot of consultancy and finance jobs have started to slip away, too.

It's actually the property investment side that I see as having the biggest impact - this part of our economy could well be dead over the next 5-10 years. And if there's no capital gains available (which means prices just remain flat - they don't even have to fall) and rental prices decline...we could see the supply side of the housing market surge and that is where the price fall comes in.

Like I said - the trajectory of credit growth is negative. There will be less people buying houses in 12 months than now. If there's also a supply increase...?

But, look, the future will tell us, right? I'll stake my position and not try to worm out of anything. I'm back on the price decline wagon.

 

[Hollywood Jesus]

You can only expose it properly if you don’t repeat many of the same mistakes or invent spectacular new ones.

I don't see Trump spending the last few decades hijacking his government position to enrich his family and selling out the people, so there's no worry there. Presidents have term limits - other representatives don't, so it's not the Trumps that are the problem in that area.

As for inventing new, spectacular mistakes - not too sure you can actually get any worse than abusing your position as Senator and Vice-President (and would be President) to sell out your country and enrich your family.

If these allegations are true...you reckon the rioting the US has seen this year is bad? Buckle up, mate, because people will want heads to roll and those at risk of losing their positions will unleash their minions to combat that.

 

[Gary Gutful]

I don't see Trump spending the last few decades hijacking his government position to enrich his family and selling out the people, so there's no worry there. Presidents have term limits - other representatives don't, so it's not the Trumps that are the problem in that area.

As for inventing new, spectacular mistakes - not too sure you can actually get any worse than abusing your position as Senator and Vice-President (and would be President) to sell out your country and enrich your family.

If these allegations are true...you reckon the rioting the US has seen this year is bad? Buckle up, mate, because people will want heads to roll and those at risk of losing their positions will unleash their minions to combat that.

I've been following it since it was announced and I reckon you are blowing your load unneccessarily. Most people care more about how the President is going to help improve their lives. Only the f**king nerds are concerned about the laptop.

Besides, both sides of politics are dodgy.

Trump is no better than those he is trying to throw mud at. I watched the debate and his attempts to continually raise it looked like he was distracting from his own failures over the last 4 years. The reality is that his businesses have regularly benefitted from his presidency and there is an uncomfortable blurring of the lines between the two. So much for draining the f**king swamp!

Anyway, I don't want you to think I am defending Biden. The guy is a dodgy, slimy merkin. I just don't need to see an equally dodgy slimy merkin whining about it hypocritically (Trump that is, not you!).

 

[Gronk]

I've been following it since it was announced and I reckon you are blowing your load unneccessarily. Most people care more about how the President is going to help improve their lives. Only the f**king nerds are concerned about the laptop.

Besides, both sides of politics are dodgy.

Trump is no better than those he is trying to throw mud at. I watched the debate and his attempts to continually raise it looked like he was distracting from his own failures over the last 4 years. The reality is that his businesses have regularly benefitted from his presidency and there is an uncomfortable blurring of the lines between the two. So much for draining the f**king swamp!

Anyway, I don't want you to think I am defending Biden. The guy is a dodgy, slimy merkin. I just don't need to see an equally dodgy slimy merkin whining about it hypocritically (Trump that is, not you!).

I'll raise your dodgy with this dodgy.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Yeah. Saw that. Dodgy AF.

 

[strider]

what about the backups of the electronic copies?

 

[Gronk]

what about the backups of the electronic copies?

Tractor ran over them, sorry.