Surprising polls show the Voice has a chance
Phillip CooreyPolitical editor
Jul 27, 2023 – 5.00am
Supporters of
an Indigenous Voice to parliament say the cause is far from lost as internal polling shows the No vote is softer than the Yes vote, and about a quarter of voters are undecided and could be wooed by a short, sharp campaign.
Third-party polling seen by
The Australian Financial Review, as well as research conducted separately by federal Labor and the Yes23 Campaign, all come to the same conclusion that the outcome of the referendum was, a source said, “still very much up for grabs”.
ANU chancellor and former foreign minister Julie Bishop has come out in support of the Voice. AAP
The pushback came as former foreign minster and moderate Liberal Julie Bishop backed the Voice, saying “we’ve got to give it a chance”.
Expectations that the referendum to enshrine a Voice and recognise Indigenous Australians in the Constitution will fail have been heightened by a spate of public polls in recent weeks that show the Yes vote has fallen below 50 per cent and, in some cases, is outweighed by the No vote.
But detailed internal research shows that at this stage, there is a greater level of certainty among those indicating they will vote Yes.
A nationwide Roy Morgan poll of more than 2700 people, and commissioned by a third party, found 48.2 per cent of yes voters had definitely made up their mind in that they were very certain or certain that was how they would vote.
Just 27.9 per cent of No voters were as sure of their intention, while 23.9 per cent were considered “up for grabs”.
Respondents were asked whether they intended to vote Yes or No at the referendum and quizzed on their level of certainty.
The poll is a month old, but the
Financial Review understands more recent research conducted by Yes23, as well as what is believed to be an extensive nationwide survey by federal Labor, involving about 15,000 thousand voters, have delivered the same findings.
“It’s not a closed door,” said a source, who added the Yes campaign was still the underdog.
It also explains why Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
junked plans 10 days ago to announce a referendum date when he attends the Garma Festival in Arnhem Land in a fortnight. It was felt that locking in a date so far out would alienate undecided voters by making them feel pressured.
Instead, Mr Albanese promised to run an election campaign-style blitz to win over undecided voters in the final five to six weeks before ballots are cast.
“I don’t plan to announce the date at Garma because that’s just in a couple of weeks,” Mr Albanese said.
“There needs to be at least 33 days notice of the referendum campaign, but there certainly doesn’t need to be that very long a campaign. And once the date’s announced, then the campaign will be on in earnest.
“I don’t think Australians appreciate very long campaigns. That’s been the case in the past, so I don’t envisage it this time.”
Supporters of an Indigenous Voice to parliament say the cause is far from lost as internal polling shows the No vote is softer than the Yes vote.
www.afr.com