Prediction poll - who will get the 18th team?

[Perth Red]

Its sad that an uppity arrogant clown like you thinks your opinion is sacrosanct & you are some sort of authority when in reality you're just a wanker

Its sad that you cant have a civilized conversation without getting sand in your vag but there you go, such is life.

 

[The Great Dane]

Its sad that an uppity arrogant clown like you thinks your opinion is sacrosanct & you are some sort of authority when in reality you're just a wanker

Everybody is an authority compared to you...

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I think the ARLC wants the 18th team to be NZ 2, but their comments about Firehawks, Jets and Pirates having a chance of getting the licence suggests that the "business case" for a second NZ team may not stack up right now. Either that or they're trying to pressure consortiums in NZ to come put of the woodwork and make a really compelling case.

 

[Perth Red]

I think the ARLC wants the 18th team to be NZ 2, but their comments about Firehawks, Jets and Pirates having a chance of getting the licence suggests that the "business case" for a second NZ team may not stack up right now. Either that or they're trying to pressure consortiums in NZ to come put of the woodwork and make a really compelling case.

TBF the only time I have heard the NRL mention NZ2 was a couple of sentences by Abdo 2 years ago. everything since has been media speculation. Then a little while later Vlandys said they would have to look at perth. I honestly dont think they know what or where they want at this point in time. I'm pretty sure we only get another Brisbane club because Vlandys needed to claw back the lost Foxtel $20mill and they were the safest option in a hurry.

If we look at the two most compelling new markets for team18; Perth and Christchurch, they both have significant strengths and weaknesses. It will depend what the game wants and possibly how safe it wants to play it.

"An 18th team allows you to think about what we might want to do about expanding in New Zealand. Having two teams in New Zealand creates a tribalism and a new rivalry in New Zealand." Abdo April 2021

“If it goes well, we would look at an 18th team reasonably quickly,” it could potentially come from Perth or a second New Zealand team. - Vlandys Oct 2021

"The 17th team will be in Queensland, a decision will be made mid-year. Then after that we will just see, we are trying to build a national game. That's why we're back here. We are committed to rugby league in Western Australia. We want every little boy and every girl in this state to think about rugby league. As it grows then the opportunities grow. It's the national rugby league. - Beattie April 21

 

[cumbrian Mackem]

I think the ARLC wants the 18th team to be NZ 2, but their comments about Firehawks, Jets and Pirates having a chance of getting the licence suggests that the "business case" for a second NZ team may not stack up right now. Either that or they're trying to pressure consortiums in NZ to come put of the woodwork and make a really compelling case.

I’m sure a wealthy individual could be found or consortium in NZ could be put together if their was a guarantee from the NRL that NZ2 was 100% certain to happen.

 

[Colk]

their revenue would want to be higher because they piss a lot of it away , I never said bankrupt .. I said tying up their funds with their failing expansion sides.
Thats the lesson for us right there

I think the lesson would be trying to work out why their revenue is so much higher.

 

[Perth Red]

Comparing the potential two main protagonists for Team18. Presuming of course the NRL isnt batsht stupid enough to put another club in NSW or Brisbane!

Potential Bidders

There is currently only one NZ2 bid interest being publicly touted. This bid (led by Chalmers) is suggesting a Wests Tigers nomadic approach with games being played in Wellington, Christchurch and elsewhere. The team would be based in Wellington so I suppose we can say at the moment there is no distinct Christchurch bid. At the opposite end of the scale there are 3 potential bids that have been publicly aired in Perth with mining millionaire Tony Sage (owner of Perth Glory) keen to add an NRL club to his sports club stable, previous Reds backer Cummins working closely with the NRLWA to develop a grassroots based Pirates club and previous Reds chairman Puddy who is nostalgic to bring the Reds back and is willing to lead that charge.

Financial sustainability

Perth would be the most likely at this point to be financially sustainable. It's major sized city of 2.2million people with some very big hitter corporates based there. There are allegedly 3 very rich men wiling to own the new club and invest in it. The downside is they will share the city with the countries biggest sports club in the WC Eagles and some pretty successful other clubs like Dockers and Wildcats. Christchurch is yet to have any big money men throw their hat in the ring and may struggle for revenue in a city of just 400k people with no major industries based there. The only person to show interest in a NZ bid so far suggests he can get investors on board for a Wellington/Christchurch based team.

TV value

The 18th club brings with it a very valuable ninth game sales pitch. The 17th club has arguably added nothing to the NRL's bottom line, in fact likely to be costing it, so it is imperative the NRL gets maximum value out of the sale of a ninth game. Both potential locations offer new opportunities for different time slots with a NZ2 helping fill the dreaded 6pm Friday slot and Perth offering a late night Saturday or daytime Sunday evening game in Australia. Will Sky NZ pay more for another team? Will NZ FTA be interested in bidding if there are two NZ teams? Will the Australian networks favour exposure for their advertisers in a Australia's 4th biggest city that currently has minimal NRL focus? This could be the decider knowing how the NRL operate and are behoove to their media masters.

Player Development

Christchurch would have access to more talent being produced through the kiwi system though Perth has equal number of grassroots clubs in WA as Christchurch does in Canterbury region. The fear of the other clubs of Perth poaching their Australian players will weigh heavily and the difficulty with recruitment we have seen at the Dolphins may be a warning shot for finding quality to move to the other side of the country. Perth has produced NRL first graders despite no direct pathway as has the Canterbury region. The Warriors have been an abject failure in developing a winning kiwi side so fears that a smaller weaker Christchurch club may struggle even more may deter.

Stadium

Christchurch wins hand down a with a new state of the art 30k $500million indoor stadium under construction. Whilst the 20.5k capacity HBF park in Perth is adequate for NRL it needs finishing with a new corporate stand and capacity increasing to at least 25k to be near comparable to what the Christchurch facility will offer.

Government Support

WA Government has shown strong support for rugby league growth in the state. The premier is a Newcastle lad and has spent big bringing SOO and NRL games to Perth. They have shown to be not shy in investing is sports infrastructure and a new CofE and HQ for NRLWA should be on the table as a sweetener for a club in the negotiations. WA Govt is consistently cashed up with mining bringing in massive funds to the State for it to fritter away on stuff. I can see no commentary from the Christchurch or NZ Govt for their support of NZ2 but presumably teh Christchurch Govt will want the stadium used as much as possible and be wiling to support this.

Fanbase

Perth has shown there is a strong RL fanbase in the city with 60k sold out Origin, sold out 21k Kangaroos game and regular sold out NRL games. Tv viewing for origin and GF tops 100k in Perth and NRL regularly gets 14-21k fans attending for neutral games. Even the poorly run NRL Nines attracted 21k fans over the two days. Christchurch crowds have been a bit smaller in the 10-17k range but may get a boost from the new stadium and having their own team to support, the derby with Warriors should sell out every year and clubs like Manly, Storm and Bulldogs have good followings there.

Strategic Importance

This is the interesting one. Currently it seems that NRL leadership has no real appetite for taking the fight with the AFL to their own backyard. Whilst VLandys has softened his stance on Perth he made it pretty clear early on that he sees too many challenges for the NRL to take on in the West. NRL CEO Abdo has on the other hand mentioned NZ2 as a potential for the 18th club citing the much used and abused "tribalism" logic. Does the game want to take the fight to AFL in Australia and develop its metro footprint or take the fight to Union in NZ whilst the game is down and try and develop a stronger footprint in the cloudy isle?
No doubt the NRLWA will have been in Vlandys ear about the struggles they are having competing against a resurgent Union in WA now backed by super trillionaire Twiggy Forest. Inaction could see all the ground made by RL since 2005 lost as Union regains its foothold and kids choose the sport with the direct pathway to the top.
Time will tell and leaders come and go, especially in the NRL, so who knows who will be in charge by the time decisions need to be made.

So there you go my take on the two fave locations for club 18. Given it probably isnt going to be looked at until 2025 at the earliest a lot of things can happen between now and then!

 

[cumbrian Mackem]

Comparing the potential two main protagonists for Team18. Presuming of course the NRL isnt batsht stupid enough to put another club in NSW or Brisbane!

Potential Bidders

There is currently only one NZ2 bid interest being publicly touted. This bid (led by Chalmers) is suggesting a Wests Tigers nomadic approach with games being played in Wellington, Christchurch and elsewhere. The team would be based in Wellington so I suppose we can say at the moment there is no distinct Christchurch bid. At the opposite end of the scale there are 3 potential bids that have been publicly aired in Perth with mining millionaire Tony Sage (owner of Perth Glory) keen to add an NRL club to his sports club stable, previous Reds backer Cummins working closely with the NRLWA to develop a grassroots based Pirates club and previous Reds chairman Puddy who is nostalgic to bring the Reds back and is willing to lead that charge.

Financial sustainability

Perth would be the most likely at this point to be financially sustainable. It's major sized city of 2.2million people with some very big hitter corporates based there. There are allegedly 3 very rich men wiling to own the new club and invest in it. The downside is they will share the city with the countries biggest sports club in the WC Eagles and some pretty successful other clubs like Dockers and Wildcats. Christchurch is yet to have any big money men throw their hat in the ring and may struggle for revenue in a city of just 400k people with no major industries based there. The only person to show interest in a NZ bid so far suggests he can get investors on board for a Wellington/Christchurch based team.

TV value

The 18th club brings with it a very valuable ninth game sales pitch. The 17th club has arguably added nothing to the NRL's bottom line, in fact likely to be costing it, so it is imperative the NRL gets maximum value out of the sale of a ninth game. Both potential locations offer new opportunities for different time slots with a NZ2 helping fill the dreaded 6pm Friday slot and Perth offering a late night Saturday or daytime Sunday evening game in Australia. Will Sky NZ pay more for another team? Will NZ FTA be interested in bidding if there are two NZ teams? Will the Australian networks favour exposure for their advertisers in a Australia's 4th biggest city that currently has minimal NRL focus? This could be the decider knowing how the NRL operate and are behoove to their media masters.

Player Development

Christchurch would have access to more talent being produced through the kiwi system though Perth has equal number of grassroots clubs in WA as Christchurch does in Canterbury region. The fear of the other clubs of Perth poaching their Australian players will weigh heavily and the difficulty with recruitment we have seen at the Dolphins may be a warning shot for finding quality to move to the other side of the country. Perth has produced NRL first graders despite no direct pathway as has the Canterbury region. The Warriors have been an abject failure in developing a winning kiwi side so fears that a smaller weaker Christchurch club may struggle even more may deter.

Stadium

Christchurch wins hand down a with a new state of the art 30k $500million indoor stadium under construction. Whilst the 20.5k capacity HBF park in Perth is adequate for NRL it needs finishing with a new corporate stand and capacity increasing to at least 25k to be near comparable to what the Christchurch facility will offer.

Government Support

WA Government has shown strong support for rugby league growth in the state. The premier is a Newcastle lad and has spent big bringing SOO and NRL games to Perth. They have shown to be not shy in investing is sports infrastructure and a new CofE and HQ for NRLWA should be on the table as a sweetener for a club in the negotiations. WA Govt is consistently cashed up with mining bringing in massive funds to the State for it to fritter away on stuff. I can see no commentary from the Christchurch or NZ Govt for their support of NZ2 but presumably teh Christchurch Govt will want the stadium used as much as possible and be wiling to support this.

Fanbase

Perth has shown there is a strong RL fanbase in the city with 60k sold out Origin, sold out 21k Kangaroos game and regular sold out NRL games. Tv viewing for origin and GF tops 100k in Perth and NRL regularly gets 14-21k fans attending for neutral games. Even the poorly run NRL Nines attracted 21k fans over the two days. Christchurch crowds have been a bit smaller in the 10-17k range but may get a boost from the new stadium and having their own team to support, the derby with Warriors should sell out every year and clubs like Manly, Storm and Bulldogs have good followings there.

Strategic Importance

This is the interesting one. Currently it seems that NRL leadership has no real appetite for taking the fight with the AFL to their own backyard. Whilst VLandys has softened his stance on Perth he made it pretty clear early on that he sees too many challenges for the NRL to take on in the West. NRL CEO Abdo has on the other hand mentioned NZ2 as a potential for the 18th club citing the much used and abused "tribalism" logic. Does the game want to take the fight to AFL in Australia and develop its metro footprint or take the fight to Union in NZ whilst the game is down and try and develop a stronger footprint in the cloudy isle?
No doubt the NRLWA will have been in Vlandys ear about the struggles they are having competing against a resurgent Union in WA now backed by super trillionaire Twiggy Forest. Inaction could see all the ground made by RL since 2005 lost as Union regains its foothold and kids choose the sport with the direct pathway to the top.
Time will tell and leaders come and go, especially in the NRL, so who knows who will be in charge by the time decisions need to be made.

So there you go my take on the two fave locations for club 18. Given it probably isnt going to be looked at until 2025 at the earliest a lot of things can happen between now and then!

Whether it’s Perth or NZ2 it’s a win-win situation for me.

The money and real interest to invest seems to be with Perth as does the bigger population argument but the potential player-pool and stadium would be in Christchurch or Wellingtons favour.

 

[Colk]

Whether it’s Perth or NZ2 it’s a win-win situation for me.

The money and real interest to invest seems to be with Perth as does the bigger population argument but the potential player-pool and stadium would be in Christchurch or Wellingtons favour.

In a perfect world you’d have both. Although obviously the ARLC wouldn’t have the gumption.

 

[Colk]

Their failing expansion teams will continue to be propped up by the AFL at the expense of all other areas of their game including heartland clubs & grass roots development. Covid has hit them hard , projected to be 90 million in losses 2020-22 , while the NRL made a profit of 50 Million in 2021 alone.
Its happening as we speak

please
no more Tolstoy novels as posts

That’s not the definition of downfall. Downfall means that they would collapse. Adversely affected perhaps.

We have to work out what is being spent, what their revenue is and what the trend is over a certain amount of time. RL might be cutting things to bone (hopefully it is wasteful expenditure). AFL could be borrowing money to reinvest or they could be simply losing money (hopefully it is the latter)

 

[Perth Red]

Whether it’s Perth or NZ2 it’s a win-win situation for me.

The money and real interest to invest seems to be with Perth as does the bigger population argument but the potential player-pool and stadium would be in Christchurch or Wellingtons favour.

yeh if it isnt Perth Id be more than happy to see Christchurch or Wellington get it as long as they can make a go of it.

 

[Perth Red]

That’s not the definition of downfall. Downfall means that they would collapse. Adversely affected perhaps.

We have to work out what is being spent, what their revenue is and what the trend is over a certain amount of time. RL might be cutting things to bone (hopefully it is wasteful expenditure). AFL could be borrowing money to reinvest or they could be simply losing money (hopefully it is the latter)

Their revenue keeps going up and the gap keeps getting bigger (covid years aside) so they're obviously doing something right!

 

[baselinepanther]

That’s not the definition of downfall. Downfall means that they would collapse. Adversely affected perhaps.

We have to work out what is being spent, what their revenue is and what the trend is over a certain amount of time. RL might be cutting things to bone (hopefully it is wasteful expenditure). AFL could be borrowing money to reinvest or they could be simply losing money (hopefully it is the latter)

no , downfall is any loss of prosperity , influence etc & the AFL are cutting to the bone too , half of their development officers across the country have been let go in the last 2 years , except they still are posting massive losses & the NRL isn't

 

[baselinepanther]

I think the lesson would be trying to work out why their revenue is so much higher.

its irrelevant when their costs are as high or higher as a %

 

[baselinepanther]

Redcliffe won't ever go broke , they're more wealthy then most NRL clubs , anyone suggesting they were the wrong choice is a gimp

The next decision needs to be as sound as this one in terms of the next side also not being a burden on the game. Meaning sides in expansion states being ruled out unless they're privately owned by wealthy backers

 

[baselinepanther]

Their revenue keeps going up and the gap keeps getting bigger (covid years aside) so they're obviously doing something right!

their costs keep going up with it , hence the losses, they aren't doing as well as our resident cheerleader would have us believe

 

[Colk]

no , downfall is any loss of prosperity , influence etc & the AFL are cutting to the bone too , half of their development officers across the country have been let go in the last 2 years , except they still are posting massive losses & the NRL isn't

No it doesn’t. Downfall means ruin, deterioration, atrophy, destruction collapse etc. You may mean decline or downturn.

If that is the case though then that’s a really good thing to hear. They have had the upper hand in terms of administrative capabilities, revenue, marketing, strategy, vision so hopefully Gil McLahan (spelling) is a terrible administrator. All I know is his brother is a terrible commentator so maybe incompetence might run in the family.

 

[Colk]

Redcliffe won't ever go broke , they're more wealthy then most NRL clubs , anyone suggesting they were the wrong choice is a gimp

The next decision needs to be as sound as this one in terms of the next side also not being a burden on the game. Meaning sides in expansion states being ruled out unless they're privately owned by wealthy backers

They need to plan the next expansion a bit better than this one though whether the bid has lots of money or not

 

[Billythekid]

I voted for Perth. Also whilst PNG are no chance I do think their chances of getting a team in the not so distant future is underrated somewhat and the recent Telstra deal sums up why. Australia is trying to see off the influence of China in the region and PNG getting an NRL team and developing stronger ties with Australia would be a valuable thing politically.

I could potentially see the Aus government being willing to chip in for something like that.

 

[cumbrian Mackem]

In a perfect world you’d have both. Although obviously the ARLC wouldn’t have the gumption.

To keep the interest going in either the Perth or nz2 camps you'd have to guarantee the 19th franchise to the losing bid which would be 100%certain to enter the competition in 2-3 years time after the 18th team enters the competition.