Cowboys v Dragons preview
Wednesday, August 15, 2007
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Houdini would have been proud: the way the Cowboys pulled a golden point victory from the fire against the Panthers last Monday night was escapism at its best.
While the players celebrated like theyd won a finals match the fact remains that this team is running fourth for two reasons and two reasons alone Matt Bowen and Johnathan Thurston.
Graham Murrays men can dodge, duck and weave all they like but without this pair theyd be battling for the wooden spoon rather than a home final and a crack at premiership glory.
Luckily for them their next assignment is against a Dragons outfit who basically had their flame extinguished by the Rabbitohs last weekend.
While its true they can mathematically make the top eight (as 22 points is the current cut-off and they can manage 24 with three straight wins) the reality for the Dragons is its time to plan for 2008.
The Red V enters this must-win clash with Jason Nightingale returning onto the wing for Tom Hewitt while Justin Poore is out, giving Dan Hunt a chance to start with Corey Payne and Ashton Sims joining an extended bench.
The Cowboys have lost Steve Southern but gain Origin player Jacob Lillyman while Jason Smith has been added to the bench.
With Sione Faumuina having two chances of getting off his reckless high tackle charge Buckleys and none the Cowboys line-up will change before kick-off with either Jason Smith to start at five-eighth with Justin Smith returning to the back row or Shane Muspratt to start at lock, as he did last week.
Watch out Cowboys: Beware a team who seemingly has little to play for.
While the Dragons have about as much chance of playing finals as Brian Smith has of getting an invite to Clint Newtons birthday party they will still be out to play some good football.
The shackles will be off and the team will be out to enjoy their trip to North Queensland.
Everyone knows the beers taste much sweeter after a win and with the likes of Mark Gasnier and Matt Cooper amongst the squad the Dragons certainly have the firepower to trouble the weak Cowboys defence.
Watch out Dragons: They really only need to watch out for Thurston and Bowen, the way the Cowboys are travelling, but at a stretch Ashley Graham is also one to keep an eye on.
While he has contributed 17 line breaks and 15 tries this year in 16 matches you wonder would hed be as effective without the other two playing inside him.
But well err on the side of positive spin and say Graham is in the form of his career and is a player the Dragons must watch from anywhere on the paddock.
Deceptively quick and fleet footed, the former Eel is on a roll after grabbing a hat-trick last week, including the golden point match winner.
Where it will be won: It seriously comes down to the Bowen/Thurston influence.
If the Dragons can do what most mortal men cant and shut down the pair, well the Cowboys are in all sorts of trouble.
They have issues tackling, their forwards make next to no yards and their other attacking players feed off the back of the dynamic duo rather than create themselves.
Nathan Browns men will be wise to double-team the pair and make sure his players are aware not to be sold on dummies.
Obviously double-teaming creates holes, holes Thurston and Bowen can put team-mates through, but you take some pain for long-term gain.
Make the pair feel every tackle, make them have to keep getting up from the deck, make them question their decisions and fear taking the line on.
Easier said than done but considering the Cowboys pack doesnt seem to have the starch to back up the playmakers the key to beating this mob is by bashing them (legally) at every opportunity.
The History: Played 15; Cowboys 7, Dragons 8. These two teams are pretty even over the nine years of matches.
Prior to the Cowboys 22-18 win in round three this season the Dragons had won three in a row against the team from the far north.
The Cowboys have won four of six at home against the Dragons, but the red-and-whites two victories in Townsville came from their past three attempts.
Conclusion: The Cowboys have a golden opportunity to further cement a top-four finish, especially if the Eels lose to the Storm on Friday night.
The Dragons have extremely faint finals hopes but know its a dream rather than a real chance.
This should be enough to see the home side come out on top but with as many holes in the armour as they have and considering they are backing up from not only Monday night but a golden point game, this could be the game to bank on an upset in your tipping competitions.
Match officials: Referee Ben Cummins; Sideline Officials Steve Carrall & Alan Shortall; Video ref Phil Cooley.
Televised: Foxsports 3 Live 7.30pm.
* Statistics: NRL Stats.
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