Rd22 2023: Non Parra games

[Noise]

2 teams with inferior rosters who are travelling better than us and 1 with a rookie coach. Knights and Warriors...wow just wow. I guess we can't help bad luck

Plus Manly who have been without Tommy for most of the year. It's embarrassing that we are sitting 11th.

 

[Bandwagon]

Manly and Newcastle are still behind us on wins, which is what will matter come end of the regular season.

 

[the phantom menace]

Just got home from non-footy things... but we're so lucky Raiders and Sharks are both purely shit too.

 

[The EELiminator]

Manly and Newcastle are still behind us on wins, which is what will matter come end of the regular season.

but they're ahead of us on points because of their draw
how fkd are we there are two teams with a point from a draw and they're both above us

 

[the phantom menace]

Manly and Newcastle are still behind us on wins, which is what will matter come end of the regular season.

Except when they keep winning and we keep losing (with away games against Brisbane and Penrith).

 

[the phantom menace]

I assume you know that because you were stalking them on facebook.

Insta, obs...

 

[King-Gutho94]

but they're ahead of us on points because of their draw
how fkd are we there are two teams with a point from a draw and they're both above us

They have had 3 byes.

Technically we are half a point ahead of both of wins.

They have an extra game up there sleeve though.

 

[Bandwagon]

Except when they keep winning and we keep losing (with away games against Brisbane and Penrith).

Yes, we are shit and they are not because ...........things that haven't happened yet.

 

[Bandwagon]

but they're ahead of us on points because of their draw
how fkd are we there are two teams with a point from a draw and they're both above us

They're ahead of us by three byes to two.

They have an extra game up there sleeve though.

Yep, which they may or may not win.

 

[Bandwagon]

Knights are playing some decent footy right now, if they keep it up They'll make the eight. But they'll take points off the Bunnies and or the Sharks getting there ( 33 points ) They have a decent draw for them

Manly aren't at all convincing, they lose last night against the Dragons but for that call of no try for grounded but not over the line ( it was for mine ) The refs call was held up, not short, the bunker called grounded, but short and supported the onfield decision?

Manly have Roosters, Panthers, Warriors the next three weeks, they'll need to win two of those to make the eight I reckon. Their draw with the Knights cancels out their poor PD against us, but It doesn't cancel their PD against the Knights, If they both win 3 or 4 from here, Knights still finish above them on PD.

 

[the phantom menace]

Yes, we are shit and they are not because ...........things that haven't happened yet.

Yes, we are shit and they are not........... based on comparative form.

 

[the phantom menace]

We're still 4 competition points behind the Raiders. They face Tigers, Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos and Sharks. Let's say they win the two gimmes (lose against Storm and Broncos), and should win a third against the Sharks.

Let's say we'll win two (losing against the Broncos and Panthers) plus our bye - it's not enough to finish ahead of them - regardless of heir final round result against the Sharks.

Knights are three points ahead of us and face Dolphins, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Sharks and Dragons. I'm thinking four wins (loss to Rabbitohs) - not enough for us to realistically catch.

That's your top eight there - even without the Sea Eagles, who have Roosters, Panthers, Warriors, Bulldogs, Tigers. They're looking at two or three wins there (losing to Panthers and Warriors, and a tough game on form against the Roosters). Maybe we eventually jump them if they lose to the Roosters (even though I've unfairly given us a win against the Roosters), but as above on form it's not enough to get us into the eight.

All power to BA for talking up that we are still "in control", but it's clear to most beyond blind hope that our 2023 ship has sailed.

 

[Bandwagon]

Yes, we are shit and they are not........... based on comparative form.

Can you quantify that?

For example, since the halfway point of the season ( round 14 on )

Knights B L L L W B W W W ( wins, Dogs, Tigers, Storm Canberra )

Manly B W L L W B L W W ( wins Dolphins, Roosters, Sharks, Dragons )

Parra B W W W B L W L L ( wins, Dogs, Manly, Dolphins, Titans )

Looks pretty similar, admittedly our form has dipped, theirs has improved, moreso the Knights, but the number of wins / Losses / byes is identical. I'd hardly say that supports our form is shit and theirs is not.

 

[the phantom menace]

Can you quantify that?

For example, since the halfway point of the season ( round 14 on )

Knights B L L L W B W W W ( wins, Dogs, Tigers, Storm Canberra )

Manly B W L L W B L W W ( wins Dolphins, Roosters, Sharks, Dragons )

Parra B W W W B L W L L ( wins, Dogs, Manly, Dolphins, Titans )

Looks pretty similar, admittedly our form has dipped, theirs has improved, moreso the Knights, but the number of wins / Losses / byes is identical. I'd hardly say that supports our form is shit and theirs is not.

Your acknowledgement our form has dipped and theirs has improved is key. Momentum at the right time of year is everything, in terms of heightening chances to snag wins that would otherwise be unexpected. They've got it in them at present, we don't. I'd rely more on momentum of form than historical number of wins/losses/byes as a predictor.

 

[Bandwagon]

Let's say we'll win two (losing against the Broncos and Panthers) plus our bye - it's not enough to finish ahead of them - regardless of heir final round result against the Sharks.

Yes, we will need to win three games, two won't cut it.

Knights are three points ahead of us and face Dolphins, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Sharks and Dragons. I'm thinking four wins (loss to Rabbitohs) - not enough for us to realistically catch.

Knights are on 25, we're on 24, that's not a three point difference.

We're still 4 competition points behind the Raiders. They face Tigers, Storm, Bulldogs, Broncos and Sharks. Let's say they win the two gimmes (lose against Storm and Broncos), and should win a third against the Sharks.

Canberra beat the Tigers by 1 point in round 14 via a 77th minute penalty, and only beat the Dogs 34 - 30 in round 10, whilst I'd agree they'll likely win those games, form says they aren't gimmes.

Their form since round 14, W L B W W W B L L. ( wins, Tigers, Roosters, Titans, Dragons )

 

[Bandwagon]

Your acknowledgement our form has dipped and theirs has improved is key. Momentum at the right time of year is everything, in terms of heightening chances to snag wins that would otherwise be unexpected. They've got it in them at present, we don't. I'd rely more on momentum of form than historical number of wins/losses/byes as a predictor.

The change in form is thus far short lived, particularly for us and for Manly, not so much for the Knights. With five rounds to go that could change as easily as it remains the same. Not so long ago we put five wins in a row together to keep our season alive.

 

[the phantom menace]

Knights are on 25, we're on 24, that's not a three point difference.

True

Canberra beat the Tigers by 1 point in round 14 via a 77th minute penalty, and only beat the Dogs 34 - 30 in round 10, whilst I'd agree they'll likely win those games, form says they aren't gimmes.

Their form since round 14, W L B W W W B L L. ( wins, Tigers, Roosters, Titans, Dragons )

Canberra are playing shit, but Ricky will be apoplectic if they drop games against the two lowest placed teams - given they are currently still well placed in the 8. Our coaching staff seem much more forgiving of the plod we sometimes dish up in place of proper team effort.

 

[Bandwagon]

True

Canberra are playing shit, but Ricky will be apoplectic if they drop games against the two lowest placed teams - given they are currently still well placed in the 8. Our coaching staff seem much more forgiving of the plod we sometimes dish up in place of proper team effort.

Are they playing any "shitter" than they've played all season? Obviously there's a reason why their PD is -78, it was -50 end of round 13, so in that regard it's a continuation of form.

Their cumulative points differential from 11 wins is 53, meaning when they've won on average it's been by 4.8 points.

Their largest margin was against us by a whole 8 points with them at full strength and us missing Moses and Reg. Hardly convincing.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Yeah, lets be more like Ricky!

FFS...

 

[the phantom menace]

Raiders? Yeah, I haven't been impressed they're a premiership threat at all - despite their high standing on the table.

I gues with a PD like that, it just signals that they can be good at the scramble - winning some games by small margins that by rights they shouldn't, but getting smashed by big margins on more than a few occasions.

Kind of like us, but with better scramble to put results on the board (particularly earlier in the season).