Rd8 2024: Eels v Manly GAME DAY THREAD @ 4 Pines Park April 26

[Parra Pride]

You know yet you tell me to be used to the humor on here when I’ve been on here for like twelve hours lol. You’d be surprised how much of the humor on here is dead set seriousness on Reddit which is where I came from lol

Mate just pick out any random merkin here and call him a merkin and you’ll fit in. merkin.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Where did you get the assertion that you should expect to win half of your finals games?

Because that's the average win rate. So if you're winning or losing significantly more than 50% you have to ask why. Bad luck? How many times in a row do you flip tails before you get suspicious about a coin?

 

[eels_fan]

Legitimately we don’t have a hope in hells chance against Broncos or Storm so I wouldn’t be rushing Moses back for either games despite hearing it may happen. Let him fully recovery.
There is only 2 games between now and the second bye that we even have a chance to win - souths and dogs. Focus on putting our best foot forward in those 2 games.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

And the implications for the result are completely different. For Penrith it was a blip on the radar. For us it’s a huge blow to our finals chances when we have already dropped games we were expected to win against the Tigers and Dolphins. So this game was a lot more valuable to us than it was to the Panthers.

But those games are in the past. They don't make this game any harder or easier. This is a whole new game.

 

[lucablight]

Because that's the average win rate. So if you're winning or losing significantly more than 50% you have to ask why. Bad luck? How many times in a row do you flip tails before you get suspicious about a coin?

A finals match isn’t comparable to a coin toss though. I would posit that the overwhelming majority of finals matches are not 50/50 coin toss situations. Every scenario has to be assessed on its own merits.

 

[lucablight]

But those games are in the past. They don't make this game any harder or easier. This is a whole new game.

Disagree. The fact that we lost those games means that this particular game was more important for us to win. Games do not exist in a vacuum. If you’re winning a lot then you can afford to drop some games. We do not have that luxury. I would argue these sort of factors affect motivation levels and should in theory make the game “easier” to win.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The assumption you’re making is that these are the only possible choices we could have made and hence this is the only possible outcome.

You're missing the point mate. "We" here refers to a long list of people. If their decisions are the problem, why do they keep being replaced with more poor decision makers?

Just because we haven’t won for nearly 40 years doesn’t mean we couldn’t have done things differently to win it.

Actually I think we could've won at least one over the decades just with more luck. But if we were stronger we wouldn't have needed it.

13 other clubs have done it during that time period. That’s the overwhelming large majority of current clubs who have been playing in the competition. Don’t go out making us out to be in a EPL situation where it obvious only the top few clubs have the resources to be competitive. We’ve had the resources to do so. We just haven’t managed to get the job done. People are right in questioning whether things should be done differently. Don’t assume the people who have been in charge couldn’t have done things differently which could have won us a comp and we are just dumbarses who don’t know sh*t and have no right to have an opinion.

And again, why do the "people who have been in charge" keep failing? And I'm talking about all of them.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

A finals match isn’t comparable to a coin toss though. I would posit that the overwhelming majority of finals matches are not 50/50 coin toss situations. Every scenario has to be assessed on its own merits.

No I'm talking about large enough samples for win/loss rates to be significant. Obviously any game could be a win or a loss. Nobody is winning 50% of a given finals match. It's 0% or 100%

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Disagree. The fact that we lost those games means that this particular game was more important for us to win. Games do not exist in a vacuum. If you’re winning a lot then you can afford to drop some games. We do not have that luxury. I would argue these sort of factors affect motivation levels and should in theory make the game “easier” to win.

I thought our motivation was very good tonight. But over 80 minutes Manly's superior class shone through.

 

[lucablight]

You're missing the point mate. "We" here refers to a long list of people. If their decisions are the problem, why do they keep being replaced with more poor decision makers?

Actually I think we could've won at least one over the decades just with more luck. But if we were stronger we wouldn't have needed it.

And again, why do the "people who have been in charge" keep failing? And I'm talking about all of them.

I don’t agree that because we’ve had 37 year premiership drought that it means there must be some kind of systemic issue which has made it almost impossible to win one during that time. It’s also very possible that every regime that has been in charge during that time has come up short on their own terms and didn’t best utilise the resources they had available. I’m not going to assume because they all “failed” as you say that we just didn’t have the resources available. The fans are understandably frustrated and when things aren’t working they’re going to ask for change. It’s why things get heated when you defend the coaching staff because people assume you’re defending the mediocre status quo.

 

[lucablight]

I thought our motivation was very good tonight. But over 80 minutes Manly's superior class shone through.

We were all over them and then made one error from which Manly scored and we lost all motivation.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I don’t agree that because we’ve had 37 year premiership drought that it means there must be some kind of systemic issue which has made it almost impossible to win one during that time.

I don't agree either, I never said anything of the sort. I think we've been unlucky over these 37 years. But if you don't believe in luck it has to be a systemic issue. Because different people (lots of them) have been making the decisions over those 37 years. It hasn't been all Arthur/O'Neill/Sarantinos/McElduff

It’s also very possible that every regime that has been in charge during that time has come up short on their own terms and didn’t best utilise the resources they had available. I’m not going to assume because they all “failed” as you say that we just didn’t have the resources available. The fans are understandably frustrated and when things aren’t working they’re going to ask for change. It’s why things get heated when you defend the coaching staff because people assume you’re defending the mediocre status quo.

So we just keep getting people who don't best utilise our resources? Over 37 years you'd have to say that's bad luck, no? Maybe if we keep ousting them we'll jag someone who can?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

We were all over them and then made one error from which Manly scored and we lost all motivation.

Ah the old 'one moment changed everything' narrative. That's not how things work. Every moment over 80 minutes decides the game.

 

[lucablight]

I don't agree either, I never said anything of the sort. I think we've been unlucky over these 37 years. But if you don't believe in luck it has to be a systemic issue. Because different people (lots of them) have been making the decisions over those 37 years. It hasn't been all Arthur/O'Neill/Sarantinos/McElduff

So we just keep getting people who don't best utilise our resources? Over 37 years you'd have to say that's bad luck, no? Maybe if we keep ousting them we'll jag someone who can?

Yes I’d say so.

 

[lucablight]

Ah the old 'one moment changed everything' narrative. That's not how things work. Every moment over 80 minutes decides the game.

One moment can absolutely change everything. Manly were struggling to contain our yardage game before that moment but after that error everything changed.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Yes I’d say so.

Why do you think that is?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

One moment can absolutely change everything. Manly were struggling to contain our yardage game before that moment but after that error everything changed.

I don't think it did. With seven minutes to go it was four tries apiece.

 

[JokerEel]

He called the play back coz he said Sivo knocked on...

Touch judge called forward pass

 

[lucablight]

Why do you think that is?

It’s just how things turned out. I think hiring Michael Hagan set us back big time and we bet on a lot of the wrong horses by signing the likes of Mortimer, Keating Bros, Sandow etc. Our recruitment and retention was diabolical between 2009-2013. It’s a lot better now but obviously not optimal.

 

[lucablight]

I don't think it did. With seven minutes to go it was four tries apiece.

The scoreline hasn’t reflected a lot of the games we’ve been in this season. The Cowboys should have beaten us comfortably but they’re in a bothersome spot of their own. The yardage game certainly changed after that error.