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L

lucablight

First Grade
Messages
6,892
Poupou Escobar said:
They were paying $1.70. Not as heavy as Penrith the following week ($1.34) but still clear favourites.

It was, but also a big fail for the Cowboys.

Redlining isn't a thing for an 80 minute contest where errors are punished. As Ivan Cleary said before the game, if Penrith didn't get it right, we could beat them. But if they did get it right we couldn't. They were paying $1.34 ffs, after flogging Souths as $1.31 favourites the week before. They were only paying $1.37 when they beat us in week one of the finals. We were outclassed (twice) just like Souths. We don't need a scapegoat for that.

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Even if it was $1.70 that isn’t raging hot favourites. If you convert that to percentages it’s a 58.8% chance of victory. They were a bit better than slight favourites.
$1.34 favourites is a 74.6% chance of winning if you convert it to percentages.
You absolutely can redline in an 80 minute contest. That doesn’t mean it has to be for the full 80 minutes. Newcastle did it to us in 2001.
 
G

Gherkin

Juniors
Messages
832
Soren Lorenson said:
Also, same articles seem to have suggested it was at least 50/50 RCG wanted to leave as much as we have tapped him.
Click to expand...
I can understand why he wanted to leave, if he can pick up a long term deal it could work out better for him than trying to get one when he's a year older.
But as a club we need to do what's best for us. We do have a lot of middles, so if we can spend that money elsewhere to balance the squad it would improve us overall. Hopefully we have some players lined up already, would be odd to release him without replacements locked in. The signings of Lomax and Iongi are great, but based on the way MO'N has operated the last few years nothing would surprise me.
 
Soren Lorenson

Soren Lorenson

First Grade
Messages
8,126
Gherkin said:
I can understand why he wanted to leave, if he can pick up a long term deal it could work out better for him than trying to get one when he's a year older.
But as a club we need to do what's best for us. We do have a lot of middles, so if we can spend that money elsewhere to balance the squad it would improve us overall. Hopefully we have some players lined up already, would be odd to release him without replacements locked in. The signings of Lomax and Iongi are great, but based on the way MO'N has operated the last few years nothing would surprise me.
Click to expand...
All fair. It’s also pretty odd that he has been released without a new contract. That tells me he really wanted out.
 
G

Gherkin

Juniors
Messages
832
Depending on what happens with JAC the bulldogs might not need to release anyone. If JAC is found to have tested positive and gets sacked I think it will actually be a positive for them. They may wish they kept Skelton, but long term they have a few decent wingers coming through. Addo Carr has been injured quite a bit and isn't as quick as he once was. They're a stronger squad overall with RCG in for JAC
 
TheRam

TheRam

Coach
Messages
13,911
Poupou Escobar said:
It's September ffs. We are gaining Lomax and Iongi, and losing RCG. Every other player we gain or lose before the pre-season starts will be a nuffy. The kind of player you only bring into the top 30 because you have to. Look at this QLD Cup merkin. Clubs are offering train and trial because they don't want to have to commit. They aren't desperate to fill their top 30 squads, like it's some magic bullet to having good depth. You either have merkins like this in the bottom of the top 30 or they are in the extended squad, and the top 30 remains unfilled. It makes no difference to your squad strength.
Click to expand...

Forwards win matches boof.
 
Delboy

Delboy

First Grade
Messages
8,198
The elephant in the room seems to be the poor management of the cap. RCG moving on obviously helped signing Lomax, then the club released a further 10 players, all basically at the bottom end of the top 30, then there would be upgrades and movement from the Flegg to full time all needing to be paid.
The roster had basically no outside backs, and still looks unbalanced and can’t see many players available , I guess the wait is for the finals to be over and clubs then making moves on their own rosters maybe giving Ryles an opportunity.
Retaining the people that were part of the responsibility of the current cap and roster issues is puzzling, let’s have some hope they will improve, although the message from the Chairman that they have been building a roster is strange, given there’s holes everywhere.
May the next 8 weeks prior to training recommencing be full of promise and action, expectations are currently quite low.
 
E

Eel candy

Juniors
Messages
14
Delboy said:
The elephant in the room seems to be the poor management of the cap. RCG moving on obviously helped signing Lomax, then the club released a further 10 players, all basically at the bottom end of the top 30, then there would be upgrades and movement from the Flegg to full time all needing to be paid.
The roster had basically no outside backs, and still looks unbalanced and can’t see many players available , I guess the wait is for the finals to be over and clubs then making moves on their own rosters maybe giving Ryles an opportunity.
Retaining the people that were part of the responsibility of the current cap and roster issues is puzzling, let’s have some hope they will improve, although the message from the Chairman that they have been building a roster is strange, given there’s holes everywhere.
May the next 8 weeks prior to training recommencing be full of promise and action, expectations are currently quite low.
Click to expand...


the elephant in the room has been shown the door. And the last piece to the puzzle decided he wanted out.

there is still one or two on shaky ground. Their destiny lies in how well they can work with ryles….
 
hindy111

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
64,637
Poupou Escobar said:
They were paying $1.70. Not as heavy as Penrith the following week ($1.34) but still clear favourites.

It was, but also a big fail for the Cowboys.

Redlining isn't a thing for an 80 minute contest where errors are punished. As Ivan Cleary said before the game, if Penrith didn't get it right, we could beat them. But if they did get it right we couldn't. They were paying $1.34 ffs, after flogging Souths as $1.31 favourites the week before. They were only paying $1.37 when they beat us in week one of the finals. We were outclassed (twice) just like Souths. We don't need a scapegoat for that.

www.9now.com.au

Watch All The Way: Panthers' Title Defence - 2023 - Ep 3 One Last Dog Fight | 9Now

www.9now.com.au www.9now.com.au

www.aussportsbetting.com

Historical NRL Results and Odds Data - Australia Sports Betting

This section provides historical NRL results and bookmaker odds data. This data can assist you in making wagering decisions and developing NRL staking plans. Data for other sports can be found in the Data section. Terms of Use The following data sets may contain errors. It is a condition of use...
www.aussportsbetting.com www.aussportsbetting.com
Click to expand...

The issue was humidity. It killed us
 
hindy111

hindy111

Post Whore
Messages
64,637
lucablight said:
Even if it was $1.70 that isn’t raging hot favourites. If you convert that to percentages it’s a 58.8% chance of victory. They were a bit better than slight favourites.
$1.34 favourites is a 74.6% chance of winning if you convert it to percentages.
You absolutely can redline in an 80 minute contest. That doesn’t mean it has to be for the full 80 minutes. Newcastle did it to us in 2001.
Click to expand...

$1.70 means the Eels would of been favourites if game was in Sydney.
 
Poupou Escobar

Poupou Escobar

Post Whore
Messages
95,695
lucablight said:
Even if it was $1.70 that isn’t raging hot favourites. If you convert that to percentages it’s a 58.8% chance of victory. They were a bit better than slight favourites.
Click to expand...
Semantics ffs. They were much better in the regular season, but we had just come off a massive belting of the Raiders. That would’ve affected the punters and therefore the price.
$1.34 favourites is a 74.6% chance of winning if you convert it to percentages.
You absolutely can redline in an 80 minute contest. That doesn’t mean it has to be for the full 80 minutes. Newcastle did it to us in 2001.
Click to expand...
No they just played their best, which was better than our best. Look at the squad they had ffs. Packed with Origin players and premiership winners. Like Penrith in 2022, they just had to get it right on the day.
 
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