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lucablight

First Grade
Messages
6,405
They were paying $1.70. Not as heavy as Penrith the following week ($1.34) but still clear favourites.

It was, but also a big fail for the Cowboys.

Redlining isn't a thing for an 80 minute contest where errors are punished. As Ivan Cleary said before the game, if Penrith didn't get it right, we could beat them. But if they did get it right we couldn't. They were paying $1.34 ffs, after flogging Souths as $1.31 favourites the week before. They were only paying $1.37 when they beat us in week one of the finals. We were outclassed (twice) just like Souths. We don't need a scapegoat for that.


Even if it was $1.70 that isn’t raging hot favourites. If you convert that to percentages it’s a 58.8% chance of victory. They were a bit better than slight favourites.
$1.34 favourites is a 74.6% chance of winning if you convert it to percentages.
You absolutely can redline in an 80 minute contest. That doesn’t mean it has to be for the full 80 minutes. Newcastle did it to us in 2001.
 

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