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Avenger

Immortal
Messages
33,849
Take it however you want. You were smart enough to see that the sample was too small but not smart enough to identify that it applies to any other analysis.

Brian Smith's overall finals record is 15 wins from 28 games, a reasonable win rate in a reasonable sized sample. But that is close to the smallest sample that can tell us anything meaningful. Here's some mathematical evidence, shown by breaking Smith's win rate down into smaller (i.e. less meaningful samples):

Brian Smith finals weeksGamesWinsWin rate
All281554%
Weeks 1-2171271%
Weeks 3-411327%

The dopey dumb merkin assessment to draw from this is that Brian Smith was a week 3-4 choker but a week 1-2 specialist. It's f**king asinine. The better assessment is that 11 games is too small a sample, as it could easily be skewed by playing stronger opponents. In this case (and why I chose to split Smith's finals record this way) we know the opponents in week 3 and 4 are (in general) stronger than the week 1 and 2 opponents. So we know the explanation up front. But even if we didn't know the reason for supposedly significant results in this small sample of 11 games, the reason would still be there. It's not because Brian Smith is shit at coaching finals footy. If he was, he wouldn't have won half his 28 finals games. The 11 games in week 3-4 is skewed toward stronger opponents. Likewise Brad Arthur's 12 game finals record is skewed toward stronger opponents from week 1 through to week 4:

YearFinals weekOpponentEels differentialOpponent diff.Relative diff.Result
20171Storm+39+297-258L by 2
20172Cowboys+39+24+15L by 8
20191Broncos+60-57+117W by 58
20192Storm+60+331-271L by 32
20201Storm+104+258-154L by 12
20202Rabbitohs+104+169-65L by 14
20211Knights+109-143+252W by 8
20212Panthers+109+390-281L by 2
20221Panthers+119+306-187L by 19
20222Raiders+119+63+56W by 36
20223Cowboys+119+272-153W by 4
20224Penrith+119+306-187L by 16

This shows, with a more granular data than just W/L, that we actually underperformed in one of our finals wins (vs Knights) while overperforming in a number of close losses. We also faced clearly superior opponents in 7 of 12 finals matches (for a 1 from 7 record). We were superior in only 2 of the 12 (both wins). Against relatively evenly matched opponents we were 1 from 3. However the main point is that even a sample of 12 games is too small to be meaningful. Brian Smith's finals record is proof of this.

This will remain the case for future Eels coaches. Ryles' first half season (coincidentally also 12 games) will tell us nothing about his coaching ability. Neither will his first 12 finals matches.
Nice effort, Pou, but you need to be more concise for me to absorb all that info. One thing’s for sure—comparing BA to Brian Smith is almost blasphemous.

And if Ryles jags us a premiership, all that data is meaningless, he will simply be the greatest since John Monie.
 

King-Gutho94

Coach
Messages
15,055
I heard today that Gutherson doesn’t actually want to leave. This is just another tactic from Captain Slimeball.
His manager has done a shit job for years.

They have really failed to market him properly. And I am talking TPA's not the clubs ones.

He should have been the face of Parramatta everywhere commercially for the past 7 or 8 years. Being one of the most popular and hard nosed warrior we have had in a long time.

They should have been banging down the door for sponsors. Gutho should have had TPAs coming out of his arse.

Has he had one off field incident in his time here. I don't think so.

So his reputation from that point of view should have made him a greater asset to sell commercially.

The only drama that's comes from Gutho is when there is a contract to be negotiated.
 

Avenger

Immortal
Messages
33,849
Stuart's a quality coach. Even better than Monie.
I agree that he could have turned things around, but he's an arrogant fool who's too caught up in his own hype and has a thin skin. He's also fortunate to have the right connections in the media. He's more of an influencer than a tactical genius.
 

JokerEel

Coach
Messages
13,200
Yes, they talk too much and word always gets back to people like me. I know it sounds made up but I'm serious. He wants to extend but the issue is price. I expect that to break in the next few days.


Good to see the club holding firm.

If Gutho wants to stay then accept the clubs offer or go to the Dragons
 

84 Baby

Referee
Messages
29,562
His manager has done a shit job for years.

They have really failed to market him properly. And I am talking TPA's not the clubs ones.

He should have been the face of Parramatta everywhere commercially for the past 7 or 8 years. Being one of the most popular and hard nosed warrior we have had in a long time.

They should have been banging down the door for sponsors. Gutho should have had TPAs coming out of his arse.

Has he had one off field incident in his time here. I don't think so.

So his reputation from that point of view should have made him a greater asset to sell commercially.

The only drama that's comes from Gutho is when there is a contract to be negotiated.
You not drawn to ATS Timber or Willy’s Electronics or whatever from their association with Gutho?
 

Lemon Squash

First Grade
Messages
8,205

emjaycee

Coach
Messages
13,775
I'm not necessarily a MON fan but watching things progress now that he's not under the direction of the previous coach, who was totally responsible for our list as pointed out by Sarintinos and McElduf, has opened my eyes somewhat. I guess the question I ask is what can we negatively target MON on since BA was summarily dismissed?
Controversial?
But mate, MON has to go!!!
 

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