Rumours and Stuff

[Avenger]

Take it however you want. You were smart enough to see that the sample was too small but not smart enough to identify that it applies to any other analysis.

Brian Smith's overall finals record is 15 wins from 28 games, a reasonable win rate in a reasonable sized sample. But that is close to the smallest sample that can tell us anything meaningful. Here's some mathematical evidence, shown by breaking Smith's win rate down into smaller (i.e. less meaningful samples):

Brian Smith finals weeks	Games	Wins	Win rate
All	28	15	54%
Weeks 1-2	17	12	71%
Weeks 3-4	11	3	27%

The dopey dumb merkin assessment to draw from this is that Brian Smith was a week 3-4 choker but a week 1-2 specialist. It's f**king asinine. The better assessment is that 11 games is too small a sample, as it could easily be skewed by playing stronger opponents. In this case (and why I chose to split Smith's finals record this way) we know the opponents in week 3 and 4 are (in general) stronger than the week 1 and 2 opponents. So we know the explanation up front. But even if we didn't know the reason for supposedly significant results in this small sample of 11 games, the reason would still be there. It's not because Brian Smith is shit at coaching finals footy. If he was, he wouldn't have won half his 28 finals games. The 11 games in week 3-4 is skewed toward stronger opponents. Likewise Brad Arthur's 12 game finals record is skewed toward stronger opponents from week 1 through to week 4:

Year	Finals week	Opponent	Eels differential	Opponent diff.	Relative diff.	Result
2017	1	Storm	+39	+297	-258	L by 2
2017	2	Cowboys	+39	+24	+15	L by 8
2019	1	Broncos	+60	-57	+117	W by 58
2019	2	Storm	+60	+331	-271	L by 32
2020	1	Storm	+104	+258	-154	L by 12
2020	2	Rabbitohs	+104	+169	-65	L by 14
2021	1	Knights	+109	-143	+252	W by 8
2021	2	Panthers	+109	+390	-281	L by 2
2022	1	Panthers	+119	+306	-187	L by 19
2022	2	Raiders	+119	+63	+56	W by 36
2022	3	Cowboys	+119	+272	-153	W by 4
2022	4	Penrith	+119	+306	-187	L by 16

This shows, with a more granular data than just W/L, that we actually underperformed in one of our finals wins (vs Knights) while overperforming in a number of close losses. We also faced clearly superior opponents in 7 of 12 finals matches (for a 1 from 7 record). We were superior in only 2 of the 12 (both wins). Against relatively evenly matched opponents we were 1 from 3. However the main point is that even a sample of 12 games is too small to be meaningful. Brian Smith's finals record is proof of this.

This will remain the case for future Eels coaches. Ryles' first half season (coincidentally also 12 games) will tell us nothing about his coaching ability. Neither will his first 12 finals matches.

Nice effort, Pou, but you need to be more concise for me to absorb all that info. One thing’s for sure—comparing BA to Brian Smith is almost blasphemous.

And if Ryles jags us a premiership, all that data is meaningless, he will simply be the greatest since John Monie.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Nice effort, Pou, but you need to be more concise for me to absorb all that info. One thing’s for sure—comparing BA to Brian Smith is almost blasphemous.

I agree Smith was a better coach, but we wouldn’t know that without comparing them.

 

[Avenger]

I’ve got a good feeling about Ryles... though I also had the same feeling about Ricky Stuart.

 

[Avenger]

I heard today that Gutherson doesn’t actually want to leave. This is just another tactic from Captain Slimeball.

 

[Matty Bhoy]

I heard today that Gutherson doesn’t actually want to leave. This is just another tactic from Captain Slimeball.

Being his manager I take it? Very, very poor if so.

 

[King-Gutho94]

I’ve got a good feeling about Ryles... though I also had the same feeling about Ricky Stuart.

Ryles has more to work with then Ricky did in 2013

 

[Avenger]

Being his manager I take it? Very, very poor if so.

Yes, they talk too much and word always gets back to people like me. I know it sounds made up but I'm serious. He wants to extend but the issue is price. I expect that to break in the next few days.

 

[King-Gutho94]

I heard today that Gutherson doesn’t actually want to leave. This is just another tactic from Captain Slimeball.

His manager has done a shit job for years.

They have really failed to market him properly. And I am talking TPA's not the clubs ones.

He should have been the face of Parramatta everywhere commercially for the past 7 or 8 years. Being one of the most popular and hard nosed warrior we have had in a long time.

They should have been banging down the door for sponsors. Gutho should have had TPAs coming out of his arse.

Has he had one off field incident in his time here. I don't think so.

So his reputation from that point of view should have made him a greater asset to sell commercially.

The only drama that's comes from Gutho is when there is a contract to be negotiated.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Nice effort, Pou, but you need to be more concise for me to absorb all that info. One thing’s for sure—comparing BA to Brian Smith is almost blasphemous.

And if Ryles jags us a premiership, all that data is meaningless, he will simply be the greatest since John Monie.

Monie was lucky. The rest of his career proves that.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I’ve got a good feeling about Ryles... though I also had the same feeling about Ricky Stuart.

Stuart's a quality coach. Even better than Monie.

 

[Avenger]

Monie was lucky. The rest of his career proves that.

The game changed and his greats regressed and he wasn't able to recover. Perfect storm.

 

[Avenger]

Stuart's a quality coach. Even better than Monie.

I agree that he could have turned things around, but he's an arrogant fool who's too caught up in his own hype and has a thin skin. He's also fortunate to have the right connections in the media. He's more of an influencer than a tactical genius.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The game changed and his greats regressed and he wasn't able to recover. Perfect storm.

Plus poker machine money was swamped by all the new investment coming into the game at more professional clubs.

 

[JokerEel]

Yes, they talk too much and word always gets back to people like me. I know it sounds made up but I'm serious. He wants to extend but the issue is price. I expect that to break in the next few days.

Good to see the club holding firm.

If Gutho wants to stay then accept the clubs offer or go to the Dragons

 

[84 Baby]

His manager has done a shit job for years.

They have really failed to market him properly. And I am talking TPA's not the clubs ones.

He should have been the face of Parramatta everywhere commercially for the past 7 or 8 years. Being one of the most popular and hard nosed warrior we have had in a long time.

They should have been banging down the door for sponsors. Gutho should have had TPAs coming out of his arse.

Has he had one off field incident in his time here. I don't think so.

So his reputation from that point of view should have made him a greater asset to sell commercially.

The only drama that's comes from Gutho is when there is a contract to be negotiated.

You not drawn to ATS Timber or Willy’s Electronics or whatever from their association with Gutho?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

His manager has done a shit job for years.

Not if he's maximised Gutherson's earnings. How about this latest, shit, designed to hit the club where it hurts; our dopey fans:

Loading…

www.dailytelegraph.com.au

 

[Lemon Squash]

Not if he's maximised Gutherson's earnings. How about this latest, shit, designed to hit the club where it hurts; our dopey fans:

Loading…

www.dailytelegraph.com.au

How did I know just by reading the title that this was written by lard guts Richie

 

[emjaycee]

So we say Gutho we want you as our 14 for 2025. He would be a great utility. But if you want to leave that’s fine but we aren’t paying you to do so.

Kind of like what we said to RCG. "We will keep you and pay you for 2025, but if you want to leave early that is fine, but we arent paying you to do so."

 

[Gronk]

How did I know just by reading the title that this was written by lard guts Richie

 

[emjaycee]

I'm not necessarily a MON fan but watching things progress now that he's not under the direction of the previous coach, who was totally responsible for our list as pointed out by Sarintinos and McElduf, has opened my eyes somewhat. I guess the question I ask is what can we negatively target MON on since BA was summarily dismissed?
Controversial?

But mate, MON has to go!!!