Scomo saving me

[Eion]

Who are the just as many acknowledging the dangers of releasing modelling and research that is guiding decisions?

If you are talking about the people on this forum, as opposed to the AMA, scientists and epidemiologists all over the country calling for this information, I'd say you just need to see the rioting and waves of panic being unleashed by the fearful populace of NZ when they released their highly technical papers on the subject, to know that we'll probably be OK.

If they are making policy decisions, they are comfortable enough with the range of outcomes to make those decisions, and in a democracy, we deserve to know the basis of major policy.

I hope they do release something next week.

The health minister saying no one can predict the number of deaths is fobbing this off (as were you with your 3000 to 400 000 quote earlier from the article). I'm not asking for a number of deaths, and neither is anyone else.

People want to see the modelling (the whole model, warts and all, with flaws) and the scientific research it is based on, and the strategy the government has taken based on that modelling and research.

I can see no valid reason for them not to have done this long before now. It makes it appear as if they don't have any idea what they are doing, or they are hiding something.

The same people who were happy to roast (rightly so) Shorten for his terrible lack of costings on some of his policy going in to an election, are now saying it is OK for political leaders in a democracy to not be transparent.

And even if it is a "valid" choice, it is still bad communication, because they needed to explain their reasoning behind not releasing this information much earlier, and clearly, rather than evade questions from the press.

I sent you a link with dissenting views from experts. I don’t agree it’s ‘bad communication’ and is a valid choice.

 

[Dragon Slayer]

You know this was in response to the idea that we can't criticise governments who are doing their best in this time of crisis, right?

Do you feel the Qld government stuffed up in holding their local elections?

Because if you do, like I do, then welcome aboard to the internet experts club.

Though I'm not convinced the Ruby Princess is a "state issue" just yet.

The QLD elections should not have gone ahead. Agreed!

Of course the Ruby Princess is a state issue. And it seems there was some lying from the Captain of the ship. But in the end Gladys has to own up to that one way or another that situation was a f**k up.

 

[wibble]

I sent you a link with dissenting views from experts. I don’t agree it’s ‘bad communication’ and is a valid choice.

Which experts?

There was one person, who is part of the team looking at the modelling and telling us we can't have it.

Of course one of the people involved in lacking government transparency is going to defend doing that.

 

[Dragon Slayer]

I agree. Bowen is a poor politician.

I'm not sure how relevant it is to anything I was saying, but if we're just comparing notes, I agree with you on that point.

Well Bowen is quoted in the article that is why I mentioned it.

The guy should just shut up so we are not reminded that, that idiot is still around in politics.

 

[wibble]

The QLD elections should not have gone ahead. Agreed!

Of course the Ruby Princess is a state issue. And it seems there was some lying from the Captain of the ship. But in the end Gladys has to own up to that one way or another that situation was a f**k up.

I guess the Ruby Princess one will come out in the wash.

It probably doesn't matter so much right now.

But again, it was a stuff up, and even if we think politicians are making tough choices in tough conditions (which they are), and are only human and will make genuine mistakes just because they are human, not for any evil reason (which they will), we can still point that out. Unless we live in China.

 

[wibble]

Well Bowen is quoted in the article that is why I mentioned it.

The guy should just shut up so we are not reminded that, that idiot is still around in politics.

It was never going to happen with Shorten around, but that whole slew of Labor people from the disaster of Rudd/Gillard/Rudd should have taken a back seat and let someone else try to run things. They didn't exactly set the bar very high when it comes to leadership within the party, someone else could have had a go.

It is important in a democracy to have strong opposition.

 

[Eion]

Which experts?

There was one person, who is part of the team looking at the modelling and telling us we can't have it.

Of course one of the people involved in lacking government transparency is going to defend doing that.

More than one. Suggest you read it again. They’ve said they’d release something next week which suggests to me they just wanted to eliminate as many unknowns as possible rather than some conspiracy. I’m sure if there was something untoward in the response to the modelling that the labor premiers would spark up.

 

[wibble]

More than one. Suggest you read it again. They’ve said they’d release something next week which suggests to me they just wanted to eliminate as many unknowns as possible rather than some conspiracy. I’m sure if there was something untoward in the response to the modelling that the labor premiers would spark up.

Well, from the article I posted, we have:

Raina MacIntyre, head of biosecurity at NSW Kirby Institute is calling for us to release the data just like has already been done in the USA, UK and NZ.

NSW AMA President Kean-Seng Lim says the modelling is never perfect but should be released anyway, for the sake of transparency.

AMA Ethics committee chairman Chris Moy says modelling being withheld leaves a vacuum.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely says the government has had enough time and should share the modelling.

AMA WA President Andrew Miller agrees and says a paternal, black box model of government is not appropriate in a democracy.

Former AMA President Michael Gannon says it shows why we need an independent disease control organisation rather than people who report to the minister.

and Chris Bowen...

From the article you linked to, we have:

Infectious diseases physician Professor Peter Collignon, who expressed no view on the matter.

Epidemiologist Professor Mary Louise-McLaws, who expressed no views on the matter.

(they both pointed out that models have flaws, but no quotes on the government releasing or not releasing them).

and Greg Hunt, Professor Paul Kelly, and Professor Lyn Gilbert who are all part of the government teams using the data (probably forming it as well) but not sharing it with us.

So in the article you linked there is one (I didn't count Professor Kelly or Greg Hunt as I assumed they were more associated with the response measures rather than the modelling), who is still part of the government team with holding the information.

I agree it is unlikely there are nefarious purposes behind their lack of communication (though there might be, the point of transparency in a democracy is that we don't need to trust our leaders are doing the right thing because they tell us they are, but we can judge that for ourselves. Even if that makes us social media experts). Probably just our major political parties are so used to treating us like plebs (that paternalistic rule the WA AMA President was talking about) they haven't thought about it.

 

[Eion]

Well, from the article I posted, we have:

Raina MacIntyre, head of biosecurity at NSW Kirby Institute is calling for us to release the data just like has already been done in the USA, UK and NZ.

NSW AMA President Kean-Seng Lim says the modelling is never perfect but should be released anyway, for the sake of transparency.

AMA Ethics committee chairman Chris Moy says modelling being withheld leaves a vacuum.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely says the government has had enough time and should share the modelling.

AMA WA President Andrew Miller agrees and says a paternal, black box model of government is not appropriate in a democracy.

Former AMA President Michael Gannon says it shows why we need an independent disease control organisation rather than people who report to the minister.

and Chris Bowen...

From the article you linked to, we have:

Infectious diseases physician Professor Peter Collignon, who expressed no view on the matter.

Epidemiologist Professor Mary Louise-McLaws, who expressed no views on the matter.

(they both pointed out that models have flaws, but no quotes on the government releasing or not releasing them).

and Greg Hunt, Professor Paul Kelly, and Professor Lyn Gilbert who are all part of the government teams using the data (probably forming it as well) but not sharing it with us.

So in the article you linked there is one (I didn't count Professor Kelly or Greg Hunt as I assumed they were more associated with the response measures rather than the modelling), who is still part of the government team with holding the information.

I agree it is unlikely there are nefarious purposes behind their lack of communication (though there might be, the point of transparency in a democracy is that we don't need to trust our leaders are doing the right thing because they tell us they are, but we can judge that for ourselves. Even if that makes us social media experts). Probably just our major political parties are so used to treating us like plebs (that paternalistic rule the WA AMA President was talking about) they haven't thought about it.

I’m sure experts, more than anyone, want to know the modelling. Fair enough. I can just understand why they haven’t released it to date, and am OK with it. It’s just a matter of timing as they have said they will release it next week

 

[BatteredFlake]

Well, from the article I posted, we have:

Raina MacIntyre, head of biosecurity at NSW Kirby Institute is calling for us to release the data just like has already been done in the USA, UK and NZ.

NSW AMA President Kean-Seng Lim says the modelling is never perfect but should be released anyway, for the sake of transparency.

AMA Ethics committee chairman Chris Moy says modelling being withheld leaves a vacuum.

University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely says the government has had enough time and should share the modelling.

AMA WA President Andrew Miller agrees and says a paternal, black box model of government is not appropriate in a democracy.

Former AMA President Michael Gannon says it shows why we need an independent disease control organisation rather than people who report to the minister.

and Chris Bowen...

From the article you linked to, we have:

Infectious diseases physician Professor Peter Collignon, who expressed no view on the matter.

Epidemiologist Professor Mary Louise-McLaws, who expressed no views on the matter.

(they both pointed out that models have flaws, but no quotes on the government releasing or not releasing them).

and Greg Hunt, Professor Paul Kelly, and Professor Lyn Gilbert who are all part of the government teams using the data (probably forming it as well) but not sharing it with us.

So in the article you linked there is one (I didn't count Professor Kelly or Greg Hunt as I assumed they were more associated with the response measures rather than the modelling), who is still part of the government team with holding the information.

I agree it is unlikely there are nefarious purposes behind their lack of communication (though there might be, the point of transparency in a democracy is that we don't need to trust our leaders are doing the right thing because they tell us they are, but we can judge that for ourselves. Even if that makes us social media experts). Probably just our major political parties are so used to treating us like plebs (that paternalistic rule the WA AMA President was talking about) they haven't thought about it.

Someone suggested that not releasing details was to avoid general public panic ? Ha!most general public wouldn't read details... too many words (where have I heard that before?)Still should be available .

 

[Generalzod]

I just come across this:

Suddenly Disney out of magic Paris is no longer romantic NewYork doesn’t stand up anymore Chinese wall is no longer a fortress and Mecca is empty suddenly you realise that power beauty and money are worthless and can’t get you the oxygen you are fighting for, hugs and kisses suddenly become weapons, I think the Earth is sending us a message you are not necessary the air water and sky without you are fine, when you comeback remember you are my guest not my master.....

food for thought

 

[BatteredFlake]

I just come across this:

Suddenly Disney out of magic Paris is no longer romantic NewYork doesn’t stand up anymore Chinese wall is no longer a fortress and Mecca is empty suddenly you realise that power beauty and money are worthless and can’t get you the oxygen you are fighting for, hugs and kisses suddenly become weapons, I think the Earth is sending us a message you are not necessary the air water and sky without you are fine, when you comeback remember you are my guest not my master.....

food for thought

nuff said

 

[BatteredFlake]

nuff said

frkn best post ever!

 

[BatteredFlake]

More than one. Suggest you read it again. They’ve said they’d release something next week which suggests to me they just wanted to eliminate as many unknowns as possible rather than some conspiracy. I’m sure if there was something untoward in the response to the modelling that the labor premiers would spark up.

Why would they spark up if it also reflected badly on them.? or compromised their dealings with federal govt ? transparency ...This is basics of democracy

 

[BatteredFlake]

I just come across this:

Suddenly Disney out of magic Paris is no longer romantic NewYork doesn’t stand up anymore Chinese wall is no longer a fortress and Mecca is empty suddenly you realise that power beauty and money are worthless and can’t get you the oxygen you are fighting for, hugs and kisses suddenly become weapons, I think the Earth is sending us a message you are not necessary the air water and sky without you are fine, when you comeback remember you are my guest not my master.....

food for thought

let's keep this as the standard to base replies on

 

[wibble]

I’m sure experts, more than anyone, want to know the modelling. Fair enough. I can just understand why they haven’t released it to date, and am OK with it. It’s just a matter of timing as they have said they will release it next week

Fair enough. And I hope they do release the modelling and research, and strategy, very soon.

But if asked about the handling of this crisis by our governments, it is my opinion, and that obviously of a lot of scientists, that the governments have done a poor job in communication. That was my original contention, it garnered a lot of negative reaction here, it is still my contention and it doesn't seem to be an outrageous position given that many epidemiologists agree.

But if others don't think it has been poor, that is their opinion and they are entitled to it. It is not like there is a "communication-o-meter" where we can empirically judge how well governments communicate.

I think there are plenty of aspects that have been handled well, as I've said (jobseeker payments, payments for child care centres), plenty I haven't formed an opinion about (withdrawing super to cover costs- I can see plusses and minuses there), and some I think have been done poorly (communicating, QLD local elections, Ruby Princess).

 

[Dragon Slayer]

I just come across this:

Suddenly Disney out of magic Paris is no longer romantic NewYork doesn’t stand up anymore Chinese wall is no longer a fortress and Mecca is empty suddenly you realise that power beauty and money are worthless and can’t get you the oxygen you are fighting for, hugs and kisses suddenly become weapons, I think the Earth is sending us a message you are not necessary the air water and sky without you are fine, when you comeback remember you are my guest not my master.....

food for thought

Death is the greatest equaliser.

 

[BatteredFlake]

The QLD elections should not have gone ahead. Agreed!

Of course the Ruby Princess is a state issue. And it seems there was some lying from the Captain of the ship. But in the end Gladys has to own up to that one way or another that situation was a f**k up.

We are one big island .Ruby princess was national problem same as people smuggler boats DoCoMo takes pride in stopping.... sure responsibilities at all levels .. but seriously? letting boat load of carriers loose... heads should roll from top down

 

[Eion]

Fair enough. And I hope they do release the modelling and research, and strategy, very soon.

But if asked about the handling of this crisis by our governments, it is my opinion, and that obviously of a lot of scientists, that the governments have done a poor job in communication. That was my original contention, it garnered a lot of negative reaction here, it is still my contention and it doesn't seem to be an outrageous position given that many epidemiologists agree.

But if others don't think it has been poor, that is their opinion and they are entitled to it. It is not like there is a "communication-o-meter" where we can empirically judge how well governments communicate.

I think there are plenty of aspects that have been handled well, as I've said (jobseeker payments, payments for child care centres), plenty I haven't formed an opinion about (withdrawing super to cover costs- I can see plusses and minuses there), and some I think have been done poorly (communicating, QLD local elections, Ruby Princess).

There is no way this is going to be seamless, nor will there be consensus on a raft of things. I get there are some people clamouring for the modelling. You’re going to naturally hear more from them because they’re unhappy. Those that don’t feel the immediate need are hardly going to be vocal about that, why would they be, they’re ok with it.

IMO though all this, there’s been a bunch of very good stuff, some debatable and 2 very bad things. Ruby and Qld elections. Overall I am very happy with the commonwealth response to a massive, unprecedented problem.

 

[carcharias]

f**kn hell

there is more 360’s than a boogie board comp since I’ve been busy this arvo.

Top job scomo...tougher gig than Brian Johnson’s ..But like him...
at least you’ve been to a macca’s .

Not like the wankers before you.