Actually I think this could be a boon for RL, as long as it doesn't go to the bargaining table with shrivelled testicles.
Channel 9 is the number one channel nationwide, but this is mostly due to its market dominance in Sydney and Melbourne. Channel 7 is actually the dominant station in Perth, and I believe in Adelaide as well.
Come the renegotiation time, RL is going to have one big thing in its favour.
After the current AFL TV right deal expires in 2006, the AFL is likely to kick 2 sides out.
The existing pay agreement the AFL has with its player union dictates their wages must go up, and up and up, and keep indexing. The money they get is divided 16 ways, but this is barely enough. By the time the wages go up in 2006 and onwards, they will simply not have enough money.
The existing deal is that if a team can't come up with all the money, they must as least spend 92.5% of their salary cap, with the AFL guaranteeing the rest of the wages. The AFL central body already subsidizes wages for both North Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs.
The next TV deal looks like getting them no increases money, and they way it looks with pay-tv, a pay cut.
The AFL has a contract however to pay out more wages, with no increase in income.
A 14 team comp will suit them fine as well as it can allow all team to play each other twice in a 26 round competition.
The AFL will kick 2 teams out in 2006, mark my words.
These teams will be North Melbourne and Western Bulldogs, unless a merger occurs, leaving St Kilda.
The Melbourne Storm has to position themselves to pick up these fans, like the swans did during SL, and they'll average 20k.
Then the NRL can go to channel 7, with this to bargain with.
Channel 7 will want Sydney's RL audience. Give channel 7 3 SOO's and gf, + test matches for RL, it will claim some ground on channel 9.
Channel 7 will get some Melbourne new RL converts, who will hate channel 9, cuz the deal that kicks their 2 AFL sides out will have Eddie McGuires finger prints all over it.
The NRL will want channel 7's market dominance in Perth and Adelaide. But the NRL has to force this issue, of having at least its marquee games (SOO and gf) shown at decent hours.