Spring 2015

[veggiepatch1959]

Off to the local sports club to get on the punt. Good luck to all!!

No great standouts today. My only win bets will be:-

Brisbane Race 4 - No. 1 - What About Me - $3.20 fixed odds

Adelaide Race 2 - No. 3 - Corvidae - $2.70 fixed odds. Probably give it a miss - damn five horse race.

Have a few multiples in the Group races though.

Gave those two races the flick - I don't bet where there's less than eight runners.

Stood out Signoff with Big Memory, La Amistad and Wish Come True 10 times. Cost $60 - return $1027. Damn first four....

Had a five horse box trifecta in the Mackinnon. Could only manage He's Your Man in the placings. Blew $60.

Only two bets all day. Cashed up for Tuesday.

 

[WaznTheGreat]

Only one Aussie bred horse in the cup on Tues, and he is by Reset a son of Zabeel. Reset is a very underrated sire who doesn't get the wraps or the mares he deserves.

He's already produced a derby winner, a cox plate winner and a Caulfield cup winner. Still at just a 16k service fee.

Rhodin Drive(Reset) doesn't go to bad,ran home for 3rd yesterday at Rosehill in the 2nd race,hasn't missed a place in 3 starts,the way he runs home late in his races suggests he may get further later on.

 

[hineyrulz]

Rhodin Drive(Reset) doesn't go to bad,ran home for 3rd yesterday at Rosehill in the 2nd race,hasn't missed a place in 3 starts,the way he runs home late in his races suggests he may get further later on.

He also has Get Square in the Oaks who i reckon is a decent chance, he always seems to have a good horse racing which is the sign of a good sire.

 

[Bulldog Force]

Lost everything on at Derby except the Lexus. Overall I walked out of Flemington with a much lighter wallet.

My losses were countered later on that evening though as I walked away from the Roulette table at the Crown with double the amount of money I walked into Flemington with :lol:

 

[Nothin' Leica Hayne]

I was all over him and the only scare I had about him was his price, appeared too good to be true.

A lot can happen in 12 months though, this time last year everyone was saying how good Polanski was and that he'd be Australia's best homebred chance of winning the cup

If his anything like Roman Polanski he will be out of action for a while

 

[Nice Beaver]

Liking Lucia Valentina in the Cup.

I know mares are not that great traditionally, but this horse is flying and with the barrier and weight only needs to get in the right spot (ie no shit falling bakwards coming back on her) for a big finish.

Ran the last 200 better than AR in the Caulifield and although only 0.5kg better on terms, its 0.5 over 2 miles so that does count for alot.

AR's stable consider her the danger and if I can grab $8 I am all over it.

 

[hineyrulz]

She is easily the best chance of the local hopes, the barrier is a massive plus he can put her to sleep and unleash her at the right time. If she runs the 2 miles she will probably win.

 

[Sphagnum]

f**k the cup is hard. For so e reason I keep coming back to Fawkner. He is the best WFA horse in the country and is really flying this prep. If he runs out a strong 3200m he might be too nippy at the end for the rest of them. Best roughie Who shot the Barman. Loves the track and loves the trip. Of the internationals I think Red Cadeaux and Protectionist are the best chances but I'm not really across all the form.

Potting AR. I know the weights are compressed these I days but some very good horses have been stopped by 58+ in this race and history says you can't carry that much in the cup and win in modern times.

Good luck everyone having a punt.

 

[Sphagnum]

Oh, I also agree with the comments on LV. Question mark is the trip but has had the perfect prep for this. 4yo mares don't have a great record these days (exception being ethereal) though, so beware.

 

[WaznTheGreat]

I dunno about the Caulfield Cup form this year,Rising Romance(2nd) and Brambles(4th)did nothing in the Mackinnon Stakes on the weekend

Admire Plod and Lucia Plodentina could be lays

 

[Sphagnum]

Just saw a replay of mutual regard winning the ebor. Nice win. Can take a line through van persey who got home well in the Herbert power mutual regard drew away from it in the last 100m in that race. Travelled into the race strongly while the rest were having the kitchen sink thrown at them.

 

[Sphagnum]

This made me laugh. Sauce:- http://www.racenet.com.au/breeding/pdfs/Bookies_040114.pdf

LAY – SIGNOFF - RACE 7 No. 24 [Melbourne]
Talk about overreaction. He beat up on a bunch of walkers in the Lexus, most of whom would be cricket-score odds in the Cup, and punters are happy to take $8 on the exchange? Madness. Lay all day

 

[hineyrulz]

I dunno about the Caulfield Cup form this year,Rising Romance(2nd) and Brambles(4th)did nothing in the Mackinnon Stakes on the weekend

Admire Plod and Lucia Plodentina could be lays

Could be a good call, when was the last time the Caulfield Cup was a great guide in the cup??? 06??? Mind you that was also the last time the Jap horses came out. I'm really leaning to Protectionist, he's had a run out here which was a good one.

The distance and track didn't really suit I reckon he just may be the one.

 

[veggiepatch1959]

I dunno about the Caulfield Cup form this year,Rising Romance(2nd) and Brambles(4th)did nothing in the Mackinnon Stakes on the weekend

Admire Plod and Lucia Plodentina could be lays

The Japanese Plod ran 2.32.12 in the Caulfield Cup while Junoob ran 2.26.51 in the Metropolitan over the same distance.

Anyone care to explain the slow time?

 

[WaznTheGreat]

Could be a good call, when was the last time the Caulfield Cup was a great guide in the cup??? 06??? Mind you that was also the last time the Jap horses came out. I'm really leaning to Protectionist, he's had a run out here which was a good one.

The distance and track didn't really suit I reckon he just may be the one.

The top of my head i would say Ethereal in 2001,the eye catching 2nd by Makybe Diva in 2004 behind Elvstroem and the eye catching 3rd by Delta Blues in the 2006 CC when he had a wide torrid run(Pop Rock eye catching run in same race),apart from that i can't remember the CC producing any decent MC runs,i couldn't remember anything else without checking.

Hawkspur finished about 2.5 lengths off them in the CC as well and he tailed off in the Mackinnon stakes too on the weekend,at this stage i am negative towards this years CC but i am sure i will watch the replay of that race at least another 20 times just to make sure.

 

[WaznTheGreat]

The Japanese Plod ran 2.32.12 in the Caulfield Cup while Junoob ran 2.26.51 in the Metropolitan over the same distance.

Anyone care to explain the slow time?

The conditions that created that time and that time diff will not be exactly replicated on another day by another horse,the numbers are relative to that performance compared to horses that raced under the same conditions,The only way you could ever compare times between those 2 horses is if they ran on the same track on the same day whilst running the same distance.



Different day + different track = Ignore the time difference between Admire Plod + Plodnoob = Meaningless comparision.

That's how i roll

 

[hineyrulz]

They went 22 lengths quicker the first 1000m in the Herbet Power then the Caulfield cup, they plodded along that made the effort to come from last even better for AM and LV.

 

[Sphagnum]

The Japanese Plod ran 2.32.12 in the Caulfield Cup while Junoob ran 2.26.51 in the Metropolitan over the same distance.

Anyone care to explain the slow time?

They walked through the first half that's why the time was slow. Hayne train might be on to something here. I'm putting a pen through all of them out of that race.

 

[Nice Beaver]

Caulfield Cup form is relevant in my opinion.

Discount it at your own peril.

Times for the race are irrelevant as noted above. Give me great runs out of the CC over any other race to find some chances. It certainly won't work every year, but its a tried and true guide IMO.

Find out tomorrow I guess!

 

[WaznTheGreat]

It surely has to be against the law that an overrated cat like Savabeel could produce a Melbourne Cup winner

http://youtu.be/q6cyDsuNx_U