Im thinking that way as well Lem.
My two rules for the cup are the horse has had to run a race in Australia and if they run in a cup and don’t win I never ever give them another chance.
It’s served me well for well for 20 years but I think I might be breaking that rule tis year. Because let’s face it this Field is Aids.
Edit I did break that rule for Fiorente because he should of won the year before and he was airborne. So I have broken it once
Have to admit I haven't had a real in depth look at the form yet but had a bit of a squiz at some replays last night.
Marmelo, Wall of Fire and Johann Vermeers are the obvious from the lead up runs here in Aus but I think some of the other internationals have better overseas form.
I'm like you (and most punters) so if they haven't had a lead up run in Aus I put a pen through them straight away as history tells you they can't win... also as you mentioned same case if they have run in the cup and not won then come back for a second crack you can rule them out.
It's just over the last couple of years we've seen a Fiorente buck the trend, Americain imo would have won a second if he had a better run.Red Cadeaux almost won first up in his first crack then consistently came back and performed + Heartbreak City last year if you take out Almandin then he bolts in. So imo the hoodoo is going to get broken soon and this year with half the field suffering from severe bouts of Leprosy I think its as good a chance as ever.
l'm actually warming to a horse which is actually breaking 3 of my Melbourne Cup rules! Max Dynamite.... he breaks the above 2 rules plus he is an 8 year old and once again history tells you that 8 year olds don't win Melbourne Cups.
Just something about this horse I think he is flying under the radar a bit, even though he and Frankie wiped out half the field 2 years ago he was the run of the race by a mile, nothing made up significant ground except him.
I watched Max Dynamites last run before he came over here it was in a shitty little handicap race in Ireland, so not exactly Melbourne Cup form but jeez he just absolutely destroyed them. It was a 3400 metre race and the jockey didn't even really let him go, just tacked up beautifully and when he let him go it was all over..
I think his age is offset by the fact he is so lightly raced, he's only had 4 starts since the 2015 cup including a 14 month spell. I think the fact he is coming back for a second crack is offset by the fact he actually has less weight this year than in 2015 when most horses rise in the weights.
I just think the connections wouldn't bring him out here if they didn't think he would perform well... or more likely after all that waffle he will probably come out and run like Praecido.
Tiberian is the other one over the odds I like its form barrier puts me off a bit though.
