Melbourne Cup Guide
Runner By Runner
1. Cross Counter
The 2018 defending champion has by all reports settled in at Weribee. The query is the weight, carried 51kilos last year, goes up to 57.5 kilos. The other query is it's form, doesn't come this year with last year's form. The more rain the better though.
2. Mer De Glace
The Caulfied Cup winner and the current Cup favourite. Query on it running 3200m though as the Caulfield is it's highest distance. Not winning but in the finish.
3. Master of Reality
The dour English stayer with Frankie dogem cars on board. Well unders, should be $40-1 and that's generous.
4. Mirage Danger
Possibly the best blowout chance, has a turn of foot and has won over this distance, it's Caulfield Cup run was good being set for this race.
5. Southern France
The form behind this horse is ridiculous and it's why the price is ridiculous. My main bet. Taken some early market price for this one. Should get a nice run, the rain won't worry him. Should be finishing strongly.
6. Hunting Horn
Mooney Valley Cup form is rarely the right one. One for exotics only.
7. Latrobe
Lloyd can win Cups, but he won't be with Latrobe. He's come in a much tougher year whereas last year was in the market with only 50kilos and didn't un
8. Mustajeer
Some better judges than me like his chance, I won't be betting on it. Has some good form from York in the UK, the query is his lack of a sprint. he's a one paced stayer
9. Rostopovich
NO
10. Twilight Payment
One for your first fours especially if t pours down
11. Finche
The more rain the better as despite it being in the market it is such a dour stayer. Can run without my money for sure. Top 6 finish though.
12. Prince of Arran
It's going better than last year and it came 3rd, the more rain the better. Same weight as last year too. A great bet.
13. Raymond Tusk
Unknown at the distance, but the trainer thinks it gets the trip, It's $25-1 to find out, I'd need $35-1 personally. Pass.
14. Downdraft
Will lead at the clocktower...then fade.
15. Magic Wand
Loved it's run in the Cox Plate, take out the winner and this was a great Cup trial. Ryan Moore on board, a big tick. In the finish for sure.
16. Neufbosk
Shouldn't even be in the race
17. Sound
Absolute joke True Self isn't in. Has none.
18. Surprise baby
The best of the locals, the issue is the weather. A much better horse on a dry track, doubt it gets in the good range. Will get the distance and has a sprint.
19. Constantinople
Every man and it's dog is tipping this thing. This has Fame Game written all over it. It's a lightweight chance but I feel its a year too soon
20. Il Parriso
Should be half the price. Maps well, and is a European 3yo which gets in ridiculously light at the weights. Ignore at your peril.
21. Steel Prince
Not Going well enough
22. The Chosen One
One for multiples, look out for 2020. A year too early.
23. Vow and Declare
All the credentials to be in the finish, won't want it getting in a heavy range, but is very adapt on a soft track. Williams to ride light.
24. Youngstar
Weirdly don't mind it's chances and will run better than many expect, but couldn't have it winning.
BETTING STRAGEY for $500
$100- Il Parriso
$100- Prince of Arran
$50 ew on Southern France
$100 Boxed tri 20, 5. 11, 12, 15, 18, 19, 23, 24
