Sydney to Hobart

[Rabbits20]

Slight advantage Wild Oats at moment.

Next 5-6 hours will be interesting.

Comanche must tighten the gap when the wind picks up.

 

[Rabbits20]

Line Honours Update

Well it's been a brilliant day for Wild Oats.

This morning at 9-10am Comanche entered Bass Strait and were aware it was going to be very slow going. Comanche slowed down a real lot to about 7knots.

But Wild Oats who were 2-3nm behind realised they didn't want to follow Comanche, they entered Bass Strait on a bit of a different direction.

It paid off for Wild Oats and they were going at 11 knots and started pulling away. They were very very lucky and it was smart navigating there wasn't much wind but they got use of a decent wind somehow which shocked weather reporters.

Throughout the day and afternoon Wild Oats has been steady mainly between 13-14 knots.

Throughout the afternoon Comanche were only going at 6-7 knots.

Comanche were expected to get good wind at about 4-5pm this afternoon. But it didn't come and at about 6pm an ABC reporter said they were pretty much stopped.

Wild Oats has just kept growing a bigger lead. At 6pm it was 22nm. Now at 9pm it is 35nm.

I would say a 3 hour lead.

At 9pm Wild Oats were going along nicely at 15.5-16knots.

Finally at 8:30pm Comanche got help with some ok winds. At 9pm they were going at 12knots.

 

[Rabbits20]

It's quite crazy how for last 11 hours Wild Oats have had solid wind and made the most of it.

But Comanche had only very light wind from 10am-8:30pm tonight.

Some people thought Comanche had a problem or some kind of damage and that's why they slowed down so much. But the Commanche crew confirmed they're all good just frustrated with the conditions.


Conditions are meant to be good overnight but tomorrow around lunch time to early afternoon Wild Oats is expected to get stuck before and around Storm Bay off the Tasmanian Coast. Which is 40-65nm from the finish line.

This could tighten things up if they get stuck for a few hours.

Then Comanche and most likely Ragamuffin would have an outside chance.

1st yacht expected anywhere tomorrow between 4pm and 4am next morning.

My prediction is 1st yacht around 6:30-7pm tomorrow.

 

[Rabbits20]

At the moment top 6 on handicap are:

1. Wild Rose
2. Ariel
3. Breakthrough
4. Love and War
5. Not A Diamond
6. Patrice


OneSails Racing have dropped a lot this afternoon to 51st as of 9:30 tonight.

 

[Rabbits20]

Line Honours top 10 and distance to finish line:

1. Wild Oats- 264.9nm left
2. Comanche- 300.2nm left
3. Ragamuffin- 320.6nm left
4. Rio- 323.3nm left
5. Alive- 325.4nm left
6. Giacomo- 328.5nm left
7. Ichi Ban- 328.6nm left
8. Caro- 332.2nm left
9. OneSails Racing- 334.5nm left
10. Southern Excellence 2- 335.7nm left


The big falling in places for line honours is the 70 footer Black Jack who dropped from 4th-5th to 20th for line honours currently.

Black Jack went a long way further out to sea today and currently it's clearly backfiring.

Black Jack was meant to be top 5. Maybe they can come back for a top 10 finish if things start to go their way.

 

[Rabbits20]

Winds for Wild Oats and Comanche are good 20knots at the moment. (northern/westerly wind).

Winds are going to strengthen to 25-30knots at around 2am. This will make for very quick racing off the Tasmanian Coast overnight into tomorrow morning.

Wind is predicted to slow down a lot about 40nm from finish. But you never know with the forecast!

The quicker conditions overnight could mean 1st yacht crosses around 3pm tomorrow afternoon. I'm pretty much certain it's going to be Wild Oats.

Wild Oats going at 18knots at 11:30
Comanche going at 17knots at 11:30.

In next few hours they could both get up to 22-23knots for a while I reckon. Sure is quick!

 

[Rabbits20]

Handicap update:

Top 3 are still same as a couple of hours ago. Medium/smaller yachts are getting good wind.

Most of them though are just a bit of a way into Bass Strait.

1. Wild Rose
2. Ariel
3. Breakthrough
4. Not A Diamond
5. Martela
6. The Goat.


The Handicap race looks tight on corrected time and speed.

You never know a yacht coming around 15th on Handicap now could still win it.

Still early to call.

Most of Handicap contenders have only completed 35-40percent of the race.

 

[veggiepatch1959]

Just had an interview with Danny Green on WIN TV's Weekend Today show....sucking on a can of Bundy Rum at 9.20 am AEST.

Classic!!

 

[Rabbits20]

Wild Oats and Comanche have flown down the Tasmanian Coast overnight.

Wild Oats going at 19-20knots
Comanche 23-25knots.

An hour ago Wild Oats going 17knots and Comanche 25knots.

In last 10 hours Wild Oats has done around 180nm
Comanche has done around 205nm.


Wild Oats now 47nm left
Comanche 63nm left so they've closed the gap and it keeps getting tighter.

Currently Wild Oats 10knots
Commanche 13knots.

Around 30-35nm from finish Wild Oats could slow down in predicted light winds. Comanche could keep closing the gap.

Predicted finish probably around 3pm. Will depend on wind in the Derwent as well the last 11nm of race.

 

[Rabbits20]

While Wild Oats and Comanche have had 25-30knot wind, yachts placed from 3rd-20th haven't.
They have got stuck in Bass Strait like Comanche did all day yesterday.

3rd place Rio is now 140nm behind Comanche.

 

[Rabbits20]

Handicap is impossible to tell with top 5 in handicap all within 1 minute of each other.

There has been a car park of yachts in Bass Strait overnight.


I'm not going to focus on Handicap until Line Honours is sorted.

 

[Rabbits20]

Wild Oats currently 4nm West of Tasman Island
Comaniche currently 6nm East of Tasman Island

Wild Oats left: 36.5nm
Comanche left: 46.6nm

Both are going at around 12-13knots.

Comanche have got to hope Wild Oats get stuck in Storm Bay which I believe is around 25-30nm from the finish.

Earliest finish could be 2:30pm or latest 4pm for the 1st yacht I think.

 

[Rabbits20]

Wild Oats only 7nm from finish. Finish in 30mins.

Comanche have 17nm to go.

Both yachts going at 15knots.

Beautiful conditions on the Derwent and decent breeze.

Coverage is on ABC News 24 now.

 

[Rabbits20]

It has been a brave effort from Comanche.

They shortened the gap from 41nm to 10nm.

If only for Comanche had they only been 30nm behind last night they could have won line honours.

Just a bit too much gap for them to make up on Wild Oats unfortunately.

Comanche are around 45-50 minutes behind Wild Oats.

 

[Rabbits20]

82 year old and I think smallest yacht in fleet Maluka of Kermandie is winning handicap.

It looks like handicap will be won by a smaller yacht.

 

[Twizzle]

Looking at the Yacht Tracker its all over

 

[Rabbits20]

Wild Oats takes line honours by 10nm in a time of 2 days 2hours 3minutes and 26seconds.

Just after 3:03pm.

That makes it 8 wins now the race record.

Comanche are predicted to get in at 3:50pm. They have around 6nm left.

 

[Rabbits20]

Rio, Black Jack, Alive and Ragamuffin are battling for 3rd with still 130-140nm still left.

They are all in good winds now after a slow night and morning for them they are all going between 17-20knots.

I would say places 3rd-6th will start arriving in the middle of the night. Probably anywhere between 1:30am-5am

 

[Rabbits20]

Looking at the Yacht Tracker its all over

Yep yesterday afternoon I initially predicted a finish of around 3pm.

Funny that they finished a few minutes after 3.

 

[Rabbits20]

Handicap Update:

Smaller yachts leading handicap aren't expected to stay ahead.

There will be a strong southerly tonight.

Handicap is expected to go to a 50-55 footer yacht.

Not sure yet who has the best chance. Still hard to tell.

But things will definitely change.