If the population, sponsors etc are deemed too small by the AFL why on earth would the NRL consider it?
Tasmania is not deemed too small for AFL - rather the decision to look elsewhere is entirely political.
Tasmania is ready for an AFL team - in fact they're screaming out for one. BUT the AFL knows it owns Tasmania as far as junior development, media coverage etc goes.
Therefore the AFL have decided they need to expand into areas they dont own - rather than consolidate in areas they do - as they believe they have the money to do so.
Time will tell if it's a good move or a bad one, with well supported teams such as Port Adelaide in financial difficulty.
Back to NRL going to Tasmania. It would be financial suicide for the NRL to expand into Tasmania. There is no history of league support in Tassie, there are no children playing the game, there is no media coverage, there would be no sponsorship interest - there would be no patrons ready to step in and support the club if things got tough.
In short a move to Tasmania would be suicide and doomed to failure.
Rugby League survives in Hull in the UK because it has a proud tradition. It is a working class, industrial area, with long established roots in League and until recently no successful football team to compete with. Hull also has quite a large catchment with Lincolnshire close by (has no football teams either - except Smerkinhorpe). Hull is considered Yorkshire by the locals (maps call it Humberside) and Yorks is one of the most populous counties in the UK. It can draw players from a wide market. Tasmania would be drawing fish from the sea. Hardly a good juniors policy.
Hull has the media, the schools, the companies to support the code and a large catchment area to draw on. It also has a younger population. Tasmania's population is largely older. When kids reach teenage years, they're straight on the boat to Melbourne. League cant succeed against cricket and AFL in such a tight market place.
There is absolutely nothing to this idea, other than a deep rooted desire to stick one up the AFL for ignoring their own back yard and trying to expand into ours.
The politics of "f**k you too pal" is not a winning formula for success. As much as we'd want it to be.
