Team List Tuesday- Eels v Canberra - week 2 finals

[King-Gutho94]

Well you’d hope so he’s been in their top 3 players all year. He’s crafty but most dangerous when people let him have space and skip across. Decent line speed and he is negated. Similar for Wighton.

Tapine is their key man. If Jnr & RCG can have us winning the forward battle after 10mins we will be well on our way to a win.

Just curious BA said that.

He normally says that we just focus on ourselves.

Even Gutho on his weekly segment on the big sports breakfast generally says the focus is always on what we have to do. Not what the opposition have to offer.

 

[King-Gutho94]

No more tickets available on ticketek for the match.

 

[Chipmunk]

SEN just said Parramatta have not beaten Canberra twice in a season since 2000.

Our horrible record in Canberra probably explains that stat.

We've never played in a final and we've only ever won in Canberra 4 times in our entire history I believe.

We've won 4 of our last 5 against them though.

 

[eels_fan]

Just curious BA said that.

He normally says that we just focus on ourselves.

Yeah that’s true, it was the last question in the conference and was quite a leading question from the journo

 

[hindy111]

Whitehead over Papali’i?

Sivo and Cotric are evens
So is Papali and RCG and Tapinr and Jnr.
Penisini also evens as is D.Brown and Wighton.

 

[Chipmunk]

Some interesting stats to consider:

In every game we've won this season, we've scored a try within the first 17 minutes, with the exception of once against the Tigpies in Round 17.

In every game we've lost this season our opponent has scored within 15 minutes, except for once against the Cowboys in Darwin. If we exclude the Finals match last week against the Panthers, then this comes down to 11 minutes.

Excluding the Final last week, in the last half of the season, everytime our opponent scored 2 tries in the first 19 minutes we have lost, and when we've failed to score more than one try in the first 36 minutes we have also lost every time.

When we score two of the first three tries we invariably win with the exception of our win against Manly earlier in the year they scored two of the first three (which everyone has described as a very lucky win) and a comeback against the Tigpies in Round 17. Basically though for all other opponents this is the case.

As a side note, interestingly in this Tigpies game, Junior Paulo was out. The Tigpies scored 4 tries with Makatoa on the field, and none whilst Nathan Brown was on the field. We scored 1 try, in the 67th minute when Makatoa was on the field, and four tries whilst Brown was on the field. Make of that what you will, but this is the only game Brown has participated in since Round 14 against the Dogs when it was 16 nil to the Dogs when he took the field..

So, in summing up, if we can score, and stop our opponents scoring, within the first 20 minutes, or score two of the first three tries, then statistically we should win our matches.

Basically, based on these statistics, if we front load our energy for the next 3 weeks, like we did for the previous 3 seasons, our opponent should not beat us, no matter who they are.

 

[lingard]

Those last five words don't make sense.

 

[lingard]

We win the paper test 9.5 to 7.5

and I reckon I’ve probably been a little harsh on Brown, Ice and PenisiniView attachment 66166View attachment 66165

I reckon you're being extremely generous to Parra.

 

[Chipmunk]

Those last five words don't make sense.

I've edited the last paragraph to make things a bit clearer.

 

[Chipmunk]

Some further interesting statistics to ponder.

In the last four games that Nathan Brown played in the NRL, he played off the interchange bench.

He played a total of 33, 30, 40 and 38 minutes on each occasion.

We won three close encounters where the match was in the balance until late in the game, and the team failed to turn up in one game against the Dogs

Whilst Nathan Brown was on the field:
Tries conceded = 3

Whilst Nathan Brown was off the field:
Tries conceded = 12

Make of these statistic whatever you will.....

No one will ever convince me Nathan Brown shouldn't be in the team ahead of Makatoa, and he should be playing key minutes (at a minimum 20 minutes) sometime during the game, instead of Makatoa being trundled out when the outcome of the match is decided.

 

[Eelectrica]

Yeah, I'd start Nathan Brown and tell him to go nuts for the first 20. Not too nuts that he gets sent off or anything.
Thinking Paul Osbourne for the Raiders in the '94 GF. That'd be awesome.

 

[Soren Lorenson]

Yeah, I'd start Nathan Brown and tell him to go nuts for the first 20. Not too nuts that he gets sent off or anything.
Thinking Paul Osbourne for the Raiders in the '94 GF. That'd be awesome.

What diff would it make if he got sent off. We use our bench like we've had a player marched most weeks anyway.

 

[emjaycee]

SEN just said Parramatta have not beaten Canberra twice in a season since 2000.

Our horrible record in Canberra probably explains that stat.

Also, in how many of those years have we even played them twice?

2001, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021

We made finals in all those years except 2003, 2014, 2016.

In 2003 & 2014 we missed finals on F/A and 2016 we would have played finals if not for Salary Cap.

Statistics are wonderful things as they can be twisted any way you like.

In our last 20 losses to the Raiders, only 5 have been in Sydney and they have never beaten us in the NRL era when there has been more than 20k people at the game.

 

[emjaycee]

What diff would it make if he got sent off. We use our bench like we've had a player marched most weeks anyway.

Umm, if he got sent off we could only use 12 players for the rest of the game.

 

[Eelectrica]

What diff would it make if he got sent off. We use our bench like we've had a player marched most weeks anyway.

Well being down to 12 on the field for 60 odd minutes wouldn't be great.

 

[emjaycee]

We've never played in a final and we've only ever won in Canberra 4 times in our entire history I believe.

We've won 4 of our last 5 against them though.

9 times if you count the 2 wins in Queanbeyan when they played from there.
5 times in the NRL era (since 1998).

 

[King-Gutho94]

Statistics are wonderful things as they can be twisted any way you like.

In our last 20 losses to the Raiders, only 5 have been in Sydney and they have never beaten us in the NRL era when there has been more than 20k people at the game.

Yeah absolutely considering canberra has been mediocre like us in a sense this century i was a bit shocked when i heard them say that stat on the radio.

But when you think about most of it its just our horrible record in Canberra where we didn't win in 15 years contributed to it.

 

[Chipmunk]

Some more statistics to consider.

Since Nathan Brown's ostracisation from the team after the Dogs match, Makatoa has been involved in 10 matches and spent a total of 219 minutes on the field. His illustrious involvement can be broken down to:
- 7 minutes in the middle of the second half, where we blew the Roosters away in the first half.
- 32 minutes in the middle of the match against Souths, where we were beaten 30-12, and it was 18-6 with 20 to go.
- 42 minutes against the Tigpies, where he interchanged with Nathan Brown, where all four Tigpies tries were scored when Makatoa was on the field.
- 37 minutes in two stints against the Warriors, where two of the three tries that the Warriors scored all day was whilst he was on the field.
- 24 minutes at the end of the match against the Broncos, where he took the field with the Broncos leading 30 to 14.
- 13 minutes at the end of the match against the Panthers, where he took the field with us leading 30-4.
- 15 minutes in the middle of the match to give Matto a rest against Manly, where Manly took the lead whilst he was on the field.
- 31 minutes in two stints against the Broncos, where he took the field for the first time with us leading 24-0.
- 12 minutes at the end of the match against the Storm, where we lead 22-4, and Jake Arthur and he combined off the bench to let in two late Storm tries.
- 6 minutes at the end of the match against the Panthers, where they lead 27-8.

So in his last ten matches, he has participated towards the actual outcome of the match on only four occasions (Tigpies, Souths, (arguable they already had it in control), Warriors, and Manly). His involvement in the last 6 matches is noticeably less than the first 4, where the coaching staff obviously worked out...Hmmm, maybe he can't replace Nathan Brown!

What a waste of space (and an interchange spot).

 

[Soren Lorenson]

Umm, if he got sent off we could only use 12 players for the rest of the game.

I had my dickhead machine on for a few minutes.

 

[Snoochies]

Every time we had more points than Canberra we have won the game, every time we have had less points than Canberra by the end of the game we have lost. Based on those statistics, we really need to score more points than them and I reckon we'll win.