Argentina are fair outsiders.
They're only going to win if their opponents are terrible on the day.
While Samoa might be a few shades back from what argentina are, you wouldn't put it beyond them if the conditions were right.
And v England at Suncorp seems like it might be one of those opportune times.
What can be safely assumed this time is that they're not going to get done by 40, and they'll be unlucky to be put away by more than 20.
Samoa are a league ahead of PNG when they're equipped with heritage players and PNG got within breathing distance of England on numerous occasions.
And I don't agree with you that the final is getting outdrawn by its preceding matches as to suggest a public widespread public disapproval of it.
The final, more often than not, is the biggest game in the tournament.
I don't know where the TV ratings figures come from but the finals usually aren't a fair comparison.
The round robin matches are played in a different city (sometimes different countries) than the final, which greatly affects their draw.
In 2010 when the round robin beat the final you also have to consider that that game was a double header.
It was in Eden Park ( a fairly rare occurance at that time) and the final was at suncorp.
And even then the difference was only 8k.
In 2011 it was a similar scenario as a double header was held skewing the result.
In 2006 the matches that were bigger than the final were in different cities to the final, Brisbane generally has a higher draw for rugby league test matches than Sydney and i'm pretty sure this was the first RL test held at docklands making it somewhat novel.
2005 the final was held in England with 2 foreign teams, and it was only marginally beat by that match held in Australia.
The only clear superior of a group match compared to a final happened in 1999, the first iteration of the tri-nations
in 1999 the round robin match between aus v nz beat the final marginally at the same venue.
But the difference between the two games was marginal in my view, only 1.3k difference
If the public were disillusioned with the final i'd think that the final would be consistently worse than the preceding games.
And years like 2009 shouldn't happen.
And while the final is not universally praised as the perfect way of finishing the tournament, I don't feel that there is any sort of palpable widespread dissent.
I believe most are apathetic or don't mind how the tournament is arranged.
The final has about the same draw as the proceeding games, if a little more.
The 4nations is designed to provide an extra blockade in front of the best team from winning and to prolong interest in the tournament.
In the end it means more money and more viewers for the tournament as a whole.
Some may be put off by that and that it dosen't necessarily reward the best team, but in return it provides more high stake contests which tend to produce high quality footy.
I'm not overly fussed with that exchange and the governing bodies involved probably don't mind it either