What's new
The Front Row Forums

Register a free account today to become a member of the world's largest Rugby League discussion forum! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

The Case for Adelaide.....

Messages
8,480
Yep, it’s me beating the Adelaide Rams Drum. Bit of a read here for you folk....

Having moved here last year, I’ve been genuinely surprised at how many people have an interest and approached me about League (usually when I’m wearing a Dragons jacket, hat or one of my old retro-wear pieces – like my prized Gold Coast Seagulls Jacket or Adelaide Rams Hat), and also the number of people I’ve seen getting around in NRL gear.

And it got me thinking. Is there a strong case to bring back Adelaide to the NRL at some point?

Well I now believe there is a strong case. Or at least stronger than many might think.

If I was back in Sydney a few years ago and someone suggested this, I’d have laughed so expect you might too. Undoubtedly there’s some bias around wanting an Adelaide team. But pushing any bias aside, I’ve done a bit of research. So, read on to open your mind, pick holes in it, or just fill in some time.

Firstly, add Adelaide into the expansion list as below.
  • Brisbane V2
  • New Zealand V2
  • Perth
  • Central Qld
  • Central Coast
  • Adelaide
If an expansion team can’t generate ROI soon after establishment, then in these times we live in there’s no point continuing the conversation. But rather than bore everyone with financial jargon and stats… break it down into the following areas, which all are the major drivers on a P&L.

1 - Establishment & Ongoing Operational Costs.
2 - Stadium
3 - Sponsorship/Advertising.
4 - Membership and Attendance

Generally, establishment & operational costs will be similar for all. But aspects where costs may differ are Travel, and Stadium operations.

So for Adelaide??

Stadium

There’s two. Adelaide Oval and Hindmarsh Stadium. Let’s take it we want a rectangular stadium – Hindmarsh – which is getting an upgrade to seat 22,000 thanks to winning the 2023 Womens’ World Cup.

Operating Costs for a stadium this size would be on the lesser side compared to bigger stadiums. While they could also co-habit with A-League Side Adelaide FC. Cohabitation will also incentivise owners to invest in future upgrades with more games per year hosted.

Stadium Quality?

It’s small but I’ve never been to a ground where all seats are so on-top of the action. There’s not a bad seat in the house, the stands are so close to the playing arena. That is one of the great appeals of league – to be close to the action. And with the upgrades to come for 2023, stadium quality will only improve.

Stadium Access?

Adelaide is the easiest major city to get around by car. It’s also only a 9-iron away from the city centre, and easily accessed by Public Transport.

Travel Costs.

Teams will have to travel all over the place but the majority of travel will be in / out of Sydney given the number of Sydney Clubs. And Flights costs will be the differentiator here.

So for Adelaide?

Adelaide is a 2hr flight time to Sydney. Brisbane is 90 minutes, Melbourne 80 minutes, Perth is 4 hrs into Sydney, and 5 hours leaving Sydney. NZ is just under 4 hours (depending on which city). And costs are relative to these times.

If comparing with Perth, the flight costs pp is close to Double the cost for Adelaide. Consider that for a minimum travelling squad of 30 and that is very sizeable (Sorry Perth Red!). Adelaide is far cheaper than Perth or NZ.

But in return… when Clubs have to fly interstate to a game with an “expansion team”. Adelaide has direct flights to all city centres. The only other expansion candidate that can do this is Brisbane. Of course this may change in time.

Sponsorship & Advertising

Tricky one. You could compare by city sizes in terms of revenue expectations. In which Case Adelaide sits in the middle of all others. Noting revenue would be expected higher for larger population bases - for the club and for TV viewerships. In the case of Perth & Adelaide, these will bring "new eyeballs" to the game... where other heartland areas may already have their TV's on Rugby League. With new eyeballs comes increased ratings, advertising revenue and overall financial strengthening of the NRL.

Membership and Supporter Base.

How to best could you gauge this?

You could go on heartland states versus “frontiers” like Perth, Adelaide etc. If going by Population bases, Adelaide is 3rd behind Brisbane & Perth. And way ahead of the others. We could also go on a comparison of past history and current stats.

Once a year the Storm play the Roosters at the Adelaide Oval. Over the last 3 seasons these games have drawn over 16,000, 18,000 and 21,000 fans. Not bad for a state that has no firm Rugby League presence or club to follow.

And the Rams… first season, 1997. But when the SL war was over, Adelaide were “sacrificed” and entered 1998 with no future beyond it. So with the rams here was a team that;
  • Was hastily cobbled together for the SL comp.
  • Drew over drew over 27,000 people to their first match
  • Averaged over 15k crowds in its first season.
  • With the exception of their 2nd last game of the season (while running 2nd last), had all crowds over 10,000 people
  • Had no established quality players apart from Kerrod Walters.
  • Only won 6 games all year.
Further to their crowds…
  • Their average crowd was the 6th highest of all clubs across both competitions.
  • Of the established Sydney teams only Parramatta's average was higher.
Granted the SL war affected crowds that year, so then comparing it to the 1996 season..
  • Only the Warriors, Broncos, Knights and Roosters had higher home crowd averages than this.
And with 1995 (when the "SL War" hadn't blown up yet)
  • Only the Warriors, Broncos, Raiders, Knights, Crushers and Cowboys had higher average crowds.
  • The Warriors Crushers and Cowboys were all new teams but in "RL Heartlands".
  • The Broncos Raiders and Knights were one-city teams and highly successful during that time.
  • The Rams in 97 had higher crowd averages than all the Sydney teams of 1995.
And their average crowd back then in 1997, with all this considered, is higher than the majority of clubs in last years’ competition (given Covid in 2020).

When the noose went around their neck before 1998, they naturally suffered on the field and off it. The party was over before it really got a chance to get into full swing, cops knocking on the door telling them to shut it down.

So..

It’s safe to say that an Adelaide team, at the very least, would average a crowd of 16k. However, given more exposure to RL since 1997, a bigger, better rectangular stadium, and the high proportion of expats from the east coast (like me) who now live here….20k a game is not an unreasonable expectation. That’s bigger than most club averages in the current competition (pre-covid).

The other thing to a lesser extent is that away fans can fly in and out of Adelaide over the weekend and support their team much easier than other teams (barring Brisbane). In on a Friday/out on Sunday Night. Hard to do in other areas.

The thing that underpins all of these assumptions is that they get the front office set up right, and a competitive team – which again would need to be a given for any expansion club...


End Pt 1....
________________________

Part 2... COMPARISONS TO OTHER EXPANSION TEAMS (next post)...
 
Messages
8,480
PART 2 - COMPARISIONS..

So – comparing them all together, with my opinions.

Brisbane V2
  • Stadium - Suncorp @ 50K plus.
  • Travel Costs - Moderate (equiv to Broncos)
  • Projected Fan Base - Largest. City of 2.5M.
  • Junior base - Large (but shared with Broncos)
  • Pro's - Big City, Games each week in Brisbane, capacity for big crowd revenue.
  • Cons - Saturation in Brisbane, which fans will follow/convert to them?
New Zealand Mk2
  • Stadium - Unknown
  • Travel Costs - High (equiv to Warriors).
  • Projected Fan Base - Medium (equal to/less than Warriors). Wellington @ 415,000. (4th highest)
  • Junior Base - Low/Medium.
  • Pro's - Possible One city team (eg Wellington), Develop further growth in NZRL, new "eyeballs" on the game.
  • Cons - Expensive, Strong competition from Rugby, Warriors have had mixed success in 25+years. Unknown city.
Perth
  • Stadium - HBF Park @ 20K
  • Travel Costs - Highest
  • Projected Fan Base - Large. Population 2.1M - 2nd Highest.
  • Junior Base - Small
  • Pro's - Great (even if small) Junior Base to build off and local support. One-team town, large population base, new "eyeballs" on the game.
  • Cons - expensive, vast travel (not all of which is currently direct). AFL Stronghold.
Central Qld
  • Stadium - None (to be built)
  • Travel Costs - High.
  • Projected Fan Base - Small/Moderate. Population Mackay 80k, Rockhampton 80k** (unsure of collective region population) - Lowest Population base.
  • Junior Base - Moderate/Large
  • Pro's - Heartland Area should guarantee good crowds and great juniors.
  • Cons - no stadium, comparatively small potential fan base (aside from expected crowds at games).
Central Coast
  • Stadium - Central Coast Stadium @ 20K
  • Travel Costs - Low (to Sydney).
  • Projected Fan Base - Moderate. Population of 300k - 2nd Lowest.
  • Junior Base - Medium
  • Pro's - Great stadium and heartland base.
  • Cons - Relative close proximity to Sydney & Newcastle clubs, relatively low population base.
Adelaide
  • Stadium - Hindmarsh @ 22k (as of 2023)
  • Travel Costs - Moderate
  • Projected Fan Base. Large. Population 1.1M - 3rd highest.
  • Junior Base - None/Lowest.
  • Pro's - Stadium, proximity to eastern states (inc travel n timezones), proven interest in RL via crowds present n after. One-team town, large population base - new "eyeballs" on the game. Direct Flights to all other team cities.
  • Cons - Juniors. AFL Stronghold.
Yep – a bit of reading there. If nothing else, some good new material for the thread to banter over

So in my opinion there is a strong case for Adelaide to be considered as a viable expansion option. I get it's the least-fancied and talked about amongst League fans elsewhere. So I'm championing that voice. Further to that, I think it ranks 2nd behind Brisbane Mk2 as the most viable and attractive option - which has the capacity to broaden the Rugby League audience and consequentially be a financial success. So hopefully it's the 18th team at some point in the future.

Bring Back the Rams!!

340


END PART 2

______________

PART 3 - TYPICAL OBJECTIONS
 
Messages
8,480
Part 3..

Now – to the obvious objections….

“But the Rams have already been given a chance and failed…..”

Yep they came and went. But they were culled not by poor performance, rather at the hand of the ARL/News Ltd agreement to bring the comps back together. Sacrificed. They drew people to the games in their first year. They also had a management team where no-one had previous experience in the jobs they were appointed to. Listening to an interview with former player Kurt Wrigley, he discussed this in depth. This was also a time where League had no visual presence in Adelaide. And wouldn’t you know it – the Adelaide Crows only 2 premierships were in 1997 and 1998. The Rams did amazingly well in 1997 considering everything, aside from winning games.

With a more thought-out approach, lessons-learned, and mapping out a clear strategy and approach to establishing a team in Adelaide – re-establishing the Rams wouldn’t be akin to committing suicide twice. But yes, they do need to be competitive to sustain themselves longer term.

“It’s an AFL State, no one cares about Rugby League….”

True, AFL is huge here. And their junior club systems are absolutely mind-blowing. But Adelaide, I suspect like other “one-team-cities”, back everything that plays here. The 36ers, Thunderbirds, Strikers all have a big fan base and exposure here in Adelaide.

My experience is also that there are many, many league fans here. Stats above aside, I’m amazed at how many people are getting around in NRL gear. And when I chat with them, it’s a mix of locals and expats. I’ve even seen people getting around in the old Rams gear. The Origin was close to a sell-out before the season had started. People are more aware about Rugby League than you’d think.

“There are no Juniors….”

Yes. This is an aspect going against Adelaide in comparison with any other prospective expansion clubs. The local competition is tiny, almost negligable. But then again, Melbourne was no different when they started up, and they’ve since become a powerhouse club, one of the most profitable. Largely in part due to the professionalism of their set-up and operation – which has flowed into on-field success and a large supporter base. Their average crowds are again at the top-end of all clubs.

"Other areas deserve it more...."

Yep I can appreciate that and it's a matter of opinion. Particularly around "heartland" areas like Qld. I can also appreciate a city like Perth that has great investment and longevity in junior competitions. I'd love the Reds to come back too - Pirates or whatever they'd like to be known as. But the point of this is my case for Adelaide, not who deserves it and why.

"Peter Vlandys thinks its wasted money....."

Heard he's said that referring to Perth. I get it in the current climate but if the model can be proven that the financial returns of any side can far supersede the costs of an expansion club, and improve the overall strength of the NRL - it should and would be considered.


Any others???

Anyway all good to chew over. I'm not betting my house on it happening (which I have just bought one, and almost paid off a 2nd since moving here - don't miss sydney mortgages!), but you just never know...

Cheers all,
BBJF
 

mongoose

Coach
Messages
11,776
well you've probably done far more research than anyone from NRL HQ or any of the so called "expansion experts"

I think Adelaide should be considered just as much as Perth, I mean at least the plane trip isn't as long, that's surely got to be a plus for V'landys...

I am not saying I hope it happens but I think the best chance for expansion into these new markets within the next 5-7 years is for Covid to kill off a few clubs and they re-introduce them via expansion.
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
68,758
Pretty good summary! I dont think they should get in ahead of Perth, mainly as I believe RL is much much stronger here, and the wealth here and big money backers means the chance of viability is greater. I do think there needs to be a growth strategy for the game in SA though, I see Adelaide being where Perth was in 2000 and it took a good decade for us to get to a point where an expansion side was viable. The work needs to start in Adelaide now. Sadly the NRL is clueless and wouldn't know a strategic plan if it tripped over one. If the game wants to be a national football code it needs SA, simple as.
In the ideal world world we'd drop 2-3 Sydney clubs to NSW cup and bring in three expansion teams but never going to happen. I honestly cant see Adelaide getting a club in my lifetime sadly, I doubt Perth will either at this rate.
 
Messages
8,480
Pretty good summary! I dont think they should get in ahead of Perth, mainly as I believe RL is much much stronger here, and the wealth here and big money backers means the chance of viability is greater. I do think there needs to be a growth strategy for the game in SA though, I see Adelaide being where Perth was in 2000 and it took a good decade for us to get to a point where an expansion side was viable. The work needs to start in Adelaide now. Sadly the NRL is clueless and wouldn't know a strategic plan if it tripped over one. If the game wants to be a national football code it needs SA, simple as.
In the ideal world world we'd drop 2-3 Sydney clubs to NSW cup and bring in three expansion teams but never going to happen. I honestly cant see Adelaide getting a club in my lifetime sadly, I doubt Perth will either at this rate.

Yeah Red I hear you. I'm not really for dropping/relocating teams necessarily. I think with Brisbane V2 making the 17th..... There's surely a planned scope to get to 18 teams, thus a 9th game each week, extra revenue etc. So who would that be?

You say Perth, I say Adelaide. But someone on the central coast will say them, Central Qld similarly. Overall I truly think Adelaide should be in the discussion - the point of my thread. And if it's Perth or Adelaide that was to come in next.. either would be successful, against popular opinion that "they tried and failed in the 90's".... Living here has opened up my eyes to how much things have changed since then... and the appetite for rugby league here. But if you were on the east coast, like I was, you wouldn't ever know.
 

TheEroticGamer

Juniors
Messages
1,161
I said on another thread about Perth that it would be much easier to expand there than Melbourne because you're going up against two AFL teams and a home game a week instead of nine AFL teams and four home games a week. Ditto Adelaide.

Dismissing areas as 'rusted on afl states' is so deprived of any critical thinking that it's astounding. Have you seen the crowds the Strikers gets? Adelaide will attend any sport as long as it doesn't clash with the AFL. Especially the #1 competition of either Rugby code in the world rather than, with all due respect, a 70th something soccer league in the world in the a-league. People will support their teams when their areas are a part of the sport's biggest competition.

Another point about Adelaide is that the Rams came in when Port Adelaide joined the AFL and basketball there was popping off.

It would work.
 
Messages
8,480
Interesting to hear that you’ve met plenty of league supporters in South Australia. Every time I’ve met someone from SA they have no idea that anything except AFL exists.

Yeah I'm not suggesting they are all aware and across RL. And many staunch AFL fans refuse to believe anything else exists, or even it it does, it doesn't matter.

Most locals till call it Rugby, pretty standard. But it's when I'm out and about in a Dragons shirt or hat etc that I mentioned above, people have come up for a chat - like me who's moved here. I see others similarly in their kit I'll have a chat.

Example - I was in the local Westfield yesterday and a bloke comes up to me, chips me about following the wrong team and turns out he's a Panthers fan. Then another bloke overheard and he came over wearing a bunnies singlet. ("Proper" bunnies singlet... if you know what I mean). And that stuff happens to me regularly.

Most kits I see getting around are Broncos, Storm and Roosters. So basically the 3 capital cities on the east coast.
 

flippikat

First Grade
Messages
5,100
well you've probably done far more research than anyone from NRL HQ or any of the so called "expansion experts"

I think Adelaide should be considered just as much as Perth, I mean at least the plane trip isn't as long, that's surely got to be a plus for V'landys...

I am not saying I hope it happens but I think the best chance for expansion into these new markets within the next 5-7 years is for Covid to kill off a few clubs and they re-introduce them via expansion.

The next expansion is a no-brainer for me, Perth & Brisbane 2 (leaning towards the Firehawks, with Western Corridor a close 2nd fave there).

After that, I think there's scope for 2 Sydney teams to be relocated.. and if they move to NZ and Adelaide, it wouldn't be a bad thing.
 

The Great Dane

First Grade
Messages
7,942
Why does a case really need to be made for Adelaide at all.

Not only is it the 5th largest city in the country, which makes it incredibly important to advertisers, but it's the heart of one of the most important markets in the sports and entertainment industry in Australia.
If that isn't all a person needs to hear to understand that an NRL team in Adelaide isn't only a good idea, but should be an inevitability, then there's no helping them.

I mean it's truly amazing to me that there are so many people out there that would poo-poo the idea of an Adelaide team (or Perth, or a second Melbourne club, or whatever) out of hand, that making a case for Adelaide is necessary at all.
 

flippikat

First Grade
Messages
5,100
Why does a case really need to be made for Adelaide at all.

I mean it's truly amazing to me that there are so many people out there that would poo-poo the idea of an Adelaide team (or Perth, or a second Melbourne club, or whatever) out of hand, that making a case for Adelaide is necessary at all.

It just goes to show that rugby league is the most inward-looking, timid, conservative sport in Australasia - when it comes to expansion & broadening the game's reach.

There was a time when our game was bold - the mid 80s through to the late 1990s - but since then, the NRL has largely been in stasis.

It's as if a large section of the game (administrators, fans and media) have post-traumatic stress disorder, and any mention of expansion triggers flashbacks of the war - even though other leagues have shown it can be done in ways that are hugely successful.
 

reanimate

Bench
Messages
3,840
It just goes to show that rugby league is the most inward-looking, timid, conservative sport in Australasia - when it comes to expansion & broadening the game's reach.

There was a time when our game was bold - the mid 80s through to the late 1990s - but since then, the NRL has largely been in stasis.

It's as if a large section of the game (administrators, fans and media) have post-traumatic stress disorder, and any mention of expansion triggers flashbacks of the war - even though other leagues have shown it can be done in ways that are hugely successful.
People in the NRL when expansion is brought up:
386m40.png
 

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
68,758
Its an ingrained culture of the sport tbf. Whilst Union (a far inferior game on the field) has spread itself globally, RL remains in small pockets in a handful of countries. I mean RL in Australia has far more revenue at its disposal and far more other resources than any country in the world and even here we cant get a top tier club in just 5 major cities! Its small minded sport sadly which is a real shame because the product on the field is outstanding.
 

T-Boon

Coach
Messages
15,798
Exactly. There's no other explanation for such an irrational fear, right?

I think the basis of the fear of expansion is that Suburban sydney clubs know they are small and threatened if big city clubs become successful.
Arguably Perth and Adelaide could grow at a much better rate with success than Melbourne has since there are fewer teams to compete with them in those cities.
 
Messages
14,822
Further to their crowds…
  • Granted the SL war affected crowds that year, so then comparing it to the 1996 season..
  • Only the Warriors, Broncos, Knights and Roosters had higher home crowd averages than this.
The other thing to a lesser extent is that away fans can fly in and out of Adelaide over the weekend and support their team much easier than other teams (barring Brisbane). In on a Friday/out on Sunday Night. Hard to do in other areas.

The thing that underpins all of these assumptions is that they get the front office set up right, and a competitive team – which again would need to be a given for any expansion club...


End Pt 1....
________________________

Part 2... COMPARISONS TO OTHER EXPANSION TEAMS (next post)...

Cowboys

1995 21,670
1996 19,366
1997 17,539

Rams

1997 15,330

https://www.afltables.com/rl/crowds/1995.htm
https://www.afltables.com/rl/crowds/1996.htm
https://www.afltables.com/rl/crowds/1997SL.html

I agree with regards to the travel. That's a major plus in Adelaide's favour.

The best thing about an Adelaide team getting in ahead of Perth is it would probably lead to Perth Red blowing a gasket.
 
Last edited:

Perth Red

Post Whore
Messages
68,758
I think the basis of the fear of expansion is that Suburban sydney clubs know they are small and threatened if big city clubs become successful.
Arguably Perth and Adelaide could grow at a much better rate with success than Melbourne has since there are fewer teams to compete with them in those cities.

That comes back to small mindedness. An inability to have a vision of something bigger. The best way to stay a big fish is to keep the pond small. Only in the late 80's to early 90's did we have a leadership that could see the game should be bigger, and even then they fcked it up!
 
Messages
8,480
Cowboys

1995 21,670
1996 19,366
1997 17,539

Rams

1997 15,330

https://www.afltables.com/rl/crowds/1995.htm
https://www.afltables.com/rl/crowds/1996.htm
https://www.afltables.com/rl/crowds/1997SL.html

I agree with regards to the travel. That's a major plus in Adelaide's favour.

The best thing about an Adelaide team getting in ahead of Perth is it would probably lead to Perth Red blowing a gasket.

Whoops! Did I forget the cowboys there....?

Shame on me
 
Messages
8,480
Its an ingrained culture of the sport tbf. Whilst Union (a far inferior game on the field) has spread itself globally, RL remains in small pockets in a handful of countries. I mean RL in Australia has far more revenue at its disposal and far more other resources than any country in the world and even here we cant get a top tier club in just 5 major cities! Its small minded sport sadly which is a real shame because the product on the field is outstanding.

“Tribalism”...
 
Top