The Road to the Finals

[WithTheDawn]

confident we can make 4th end of regular season

4th has to be one of the best places to finish under the new system - low enough down that you aren't considered the main contender, with all the pressure associated. But you have an away game against the top team - win and get a week off with a home game to make the final. Lose and get a home game the next week anyway. Under the new system, the difference between 4th and 5th is immense - and very little will likely separate them.

Honestly though, 4th may be out of our reach. We would have to pick up almost all games from here on out - realistically we will drop a few against top teams and slip up against a couple of weaker ones. I'd be happy with a solid 6th place - home final the first week and then go on a run as underdogs after that. Thinking way too far ahead anyway, just really hope they make the finals...always just an enthralling experience.

 

[WithTheDawn]

last year the top 4 were obviously better than the rest - this year Newcastle, Canberra, the Dragons and Cronulla have separated themselves at the other end...

So annoying that we already lost to the Dragons twice - we look like we would put them away now. Same with the Sharks loss, they haven't looked too likely since then either. I'm glad we did the job against the Raiders and Knights, but too often these losses against teams we should have beaten come back to hurt us. We would be in first equal place if we had just taken care of two of the worst teams in the comp this year...

 

[Diesel]

The 2 loses against the Dragons and one against the Sharks will hurt our top 4 aspirations, but it's was good to see the games vs Canberra, Titans and Knights that we were expected to win, and we did, also with the later two when the shorelines were close, we didn't pack it in like we would've in the past. Getting to the finals, hopefully 5th or 6th this year will be a trail run for 2015/16 because we'll be a top 4 team by then

 

[jamaman]

I give all my time and effort to local cricket here in Katoomba.

The local league side are a strong outfit but it's still a pity I don't have time for that as well. I do go to their games though, at home.

I'd love to watch the Warriors here at home but don't have Fox. I do love nothing better though than a Warriors game on Saturday night at home on the radio.

Any other time at it's across the road to the RSL. I'm really pissed off with the draw, how many times did we play in Sydney? And that would be that Cronulla disaster, right?

Penrith at Penrith is the only one here now. We've even lost our traditional mid-year game v Easts at the SFS.

So you would have lived in Manly during the heyday of the 80s/90s? Bob Fulton and Graham Lowe, Cliff Lyons and Ian Roberts...?

Great days! lived in Parra, but supported ex workmate ( Hugh McGahns Eastern Suburds) went to all the venues Awesome!

 

[sup42]

I give all my time and effort to local cricket here in Katoomba.

The local league side are a strong outfit but it's still a pity I don't have time for that as well. I do go to their games though, at home.

I'd love to watch the Warriors here at home but don't have Fox. I do love nothing better though than a Warriors game on Saturday night at home on the radio.

Any other time at it's across the road to the RSL. I'm really pissed off with the draw, how many times did we play in Sydney? And that would be that Cronulla disaster, right?

Penrith at Penrith is the only one here now. We've even lost our traditional mid-year game v Easts at the SFS.

So you would have lived in Manly during the heyday of the 80s/90s? Bob Fulton and Graham Lowe, Cliff Lyons and Ian Roberts...?

Yes Ian Roberts was one of my favorite players , I still hold a lot of respect for him when you factor in that he was a ground breaker in social terms letting the league world know he did his own thing in his private life.

That's really cool you help out in sports. So many fans are quite skilled and knowledgeable because of having so much passion for the game.

I like a good listen on the radio too......Warren Ryan is one of my favorite identities in the league world...says some silly things....he's a bit outdated in this day and age... but I enjoy his league brain.

We have a hell of a challenge getting through the rest of the season with Big Ben out and Sam Rapira not fully recovered , the Origin thing with Lillyman.

I'm putting the top eight aspirations aside and am really looking forward to seeing if Cappy can stop us collapsing all together.....the scene right now is set for a 2012 /2013 style give in by the boys.

If Cappy can get rid of that fifteen minute mindset that came back V the Bunnies...the one where he said " I didn't recognise any of that " then he will have moved to another level with this club.

More respectable losses from here on in can't be underestimated imo.

 

[vvvrulz]

I'm putting the top eight aspirations aside and am really looking forward to seeing if Cappy can stop us collapsing all together.....the scene right now is set for a 2012 /2013 style give in by the boys.

If Cappy can get rid of that fifteen minute mindset that came back V the Bunnies...the one where he said " I didn't recognise any of that " then he will have moved to another level with this club.

More respectable losses from here on in can't be underestimated imo.

Most of us acknowledged that the bunnies game could have gone either way.
The real business starts with the stretch coming up now.

 

[sup42]

I'd be more comfortable with us getting on with this chunk of the season had we not lost to the Rabbits in the manner that we did.

I was hoping we were over late fades or repeated one on one misses. That was with our good line up....so for mine the concern arises out of the manner that we lost this week and not so much that we didn't get the two points.

Not losing faith entirely here, more concerned about that late collapse...that stuff has to go permanently from our games....especially when you remove Matulino and if we sustain any more injury losses.

The replacements like Gubb need to be coming into a nucleus of players that don't fold.

 

[Diesel]

I had a play around with the ladder predictor on NRL.com, I ended up with the Broncos & Warriors tied on 30 points and only differential separating 8th from 9th

 

[jamaman]

I had a play around with the ladder predictor on NRL.com, I ended up with the Broncos & Warriors tied on 30 points and only differential separating 8th from 9th

think we will be higher then that

 

[SpaceMonkey]

I'm not too concerned with the late collapse against the Bunnies if it isn;t repeated, as I suspect it's still largely down to the time difference.
One positive is we're guaranteed to gain a ladder position this weekend, as we'll go to 14 points with the bye and two of the other teams on 14 are playing each other and both have negative for and against.

 

[WithTheDawn]

We are basically back in a position where we really need to win our next game against the Broncos - they are going pretty well, so it wont be an easy back - thankfully its back at Mt Smart anyway. If we win that we will be right on the egde of the 8 with another home game against the Panthers before our second bye. Lose and we are 4 points adrift and quickly losing touch.

If we are proper contenders, we should be able to win both home games and bank 8 points over the next month with the byes. Even with that, we are only just in the 8 with expected results, and easily just outside of it with 1 or 2 upsets.

 

[JoeD]

Another 'should win' crossed off the list

 

[vvvrulz]

Another 'should win' crossed off the list

Not entirely convincing but Brisbane were stronger than I initially expected.
The way the Panthers are going, are they also another 'should win' ?

 

[MaxPower]

Panthers are going terrible, hey bro. I'm sure Sowards kicking game won't trouble Tomkins at all.

 

[Izz]

Panthers will be a step up from the Donkey, imo. However, we get them coming off bye week, and we know Cleary-coached teams aren't always so good the week after the bye.

 

[WithTheDawn]

I'd still consider the Panthers game a should win. Playing them at home and all. I think their position on the table flatters them a bit, they are a 6-8th placed team in my books, at best.

Their 5 in a row has come off wins from the Dragons, Titans, Eels, Raiders and Knights - only the Eels of which are mildly impressive. Before that they lost to the Sharks. Its been a good run, but they haven't been tested by any of the top sides in a few months (whereas we have played mostly well against the Bulldogs and Rabbits - minus the last 20mins anyway).

I'm not saying they should be easy beats, but I would hope the team wont be intimidated at all by their spot on the ladder and just go out there to get the job done.

In terms of the run home from here, I only consider the Roosters and Sea Eagles games as ones we will likely lose - Broncos and Eels games are fairly 50/50. The rest are games I'd hope we can win.

 

[sup42]

I expected the broncos to play like that.

Not being a smart alec , I've watched them this year , their overall defensive systems have improved out of sight this year. Doesn't seem to matter who they bring in they are tackling really well in games.

The Panthers is a massive game of course.

They go in as favorites in my books. People have been waiting for them to drop off.... and it hasn't happened.

Their Kicking game and their three quarter line attack will trouble Hurrell and whoever plays right wing should fusitua be out.

There outside backs are acurate , like the dragons.....where ours are not.

I thought Chad and Johnson tried the right tactics at times with the attempts to get repeat sets.

They tried that early in last nights game......that thinking.....chess Rugby league....is what will take us to the finals if those two keep trying it against every team from here on in till it is perfectly executed ( the chase has been hit and miss lately ).

We should strangle the Panthers and anyone else out of it with the repeat sets play.

 

[Big Marn]

This has to be the most even comp in years. I dont see any teams head and shoulders above the rest at this stage of the comp. Usually a top four would have sorted itself out by now.

Even though it seems like the Warriors have been coughing and spluttering on occasions (Whirred into life against Storm and Canberra), its more representative of how the competitions talent pool is more spread evenly among teams and games can be won and lost on how focused players are. Teams need to be at the best and not cruising (which is very hard to sustain over 26 rounds)

Refereering decisions are even more crucial than usual. Injuries and suspensions are going to make or break teams chances this year more than they ever would have. THere are far less "should win" games in this comp than ever before.

I would never try to make a living betting on NRL games.
Theres still 11 teams in contention for the finals and although at this stage half would be normally battling for the bottom 4 of the top 8 positions, (if that makes sense :? its possible, that all 11 have genuine chances to finish in the top 4.
Be interesting to see what the table looks like in 4 weeks time.

 

[TheDMC]

Cowboys just got beat by Newcastle, which means we hold onto 10th and the climb continues.

Cowboys might be shot - struggling to win away already and now without Scott and Tate, plus more injuries tonight Thompson and Kostyajan(excuse spelling).

Panthers are very due a loss and us at Mt Smart perfect place for this to happen, then take the bye and booya top 8 (and then crumble horribly later in the season).

 

[Izz]

Cowboys just got beat by Newcastle, which means we hold onto 10th and the climb continues.

w00t!