The Run Home

[SpaceMonkey]

Panthers.

panthers winning pretty much firms them into the 8 and leaves the Tigers stuck behind us. Tigers win makes thing interesting as it bunches everyone up together. I actually think a Tigers win is better as it'd still leave us in a position to get in front of them next week even if we lose to the Cows, and keeps it a 4 way race.

 

[JJ]

We still have a pretty favourable draw, although Souths highlighted some rather fundamental issues...

But scraping into the 8 (if they manage it) is pretty atrocious with this squad, and a comp that has half the teams making the finals and includes Parramatta and Newcastle

 

[Scott]

Next week Titans vs Panthers & Warriors vs Tigers shapes as the 2 key games

 

[Big Marn]

We still have a pretty favourable draw, although Souths highlighted some rather fundamental issues...

But scraping into the 8 (if they manage it) is pretty atrocious with this squad, and a comp that has half the teams making the finals and includes Parramatta and Newcastle

I always find these comments intriguing.
Have you ever sat down and done a head to head comparison of each Warriors player with the players of the other teams who are currently in the 8?
How many players in corresponding positions from each squad would you gladly swap for the existing Warriors player and how many Warriors players would you keep?

 

[JJ]

I've never been one to pump up the Warriors, but our squad isn't bad and certainly expected to be better than the Titsns and Raiders, more experienced than the Panthers etc. All Kiwi spine etc, should be top 6 imo

 

[Penrose Warrior]

I always find these comments intriguing.
Have you ever sat down and done a head to head comparison of each Warriors player with the players of the other teams who are currently in the 8?
How many players in corresponding positions from each squad would you gladly swap for the existing Warriors player and how many Warriors players would you keep?

For me, it's more the reasonably significant advantage we get by playing in NZ. We should dominate at home, with the squad we have.

Look at the one-team town sides - Melbourne 9-1, Cowboys 9-1, Broncos 8-3, Raiders 9-2. That's how you make finals, and high up the rung (Sharks 10-1 also worth mentioning). The Dogs are 6-4 but their away games are halved in Sydney.

If you include our NZ games, we are 7-5. That's not quite good enough. We were 8-4 in 2007, 9-3 in 2008, 8-4 in 2011. Win more home games and it gives you the confidence to get the job done away. But when we get belted like last week, we head off to NQ with doubts/some media pressure/etc.

 

[Big Marn]

For me, it's more the reasonably significant advantage we get by playing in NZ. We should dominate at home, with the squad we have.

Look at the one-team town sides - Melbourne 9-1, Cowboys 9-1, Broncos 8-3, Raiders 9-2. That's how you make finals, and high up the rung (Sharks 10-1 also worth mentioning). The Dogs are 6-4 but their away games are halved in Sydney.

If you include our NZ games, we are 7-5. That's not quite good enough. We were 8-4 in 2007, 9-3 in 2008, 8-4 in 2011. Win more home games and it gives you the confidence to get the job done away. But when we get belted like last week, we head off to NQ with doubts/some media pressure/etc.

Your totally right about needing to make the most of home advantage but its only a small advantage. It should be an inconvenience for the Australian teams to jump on a plane and come to our city....but not a major one (even though its 3.5 hours flight time, its only approximately 1 hour less than it takes to commute to work from Manly peninsula to Homebush Bay on a normal weekday..... speaking from personal experience from a few years ago). Thats why teams win here on a regular basis. Home town advantage isnt the edge it needs to be to win games we would otherwise lose.

i dont get why you would think that home advantage correlates with my query about the strength of our squad tho. If our squad is overrated (as i believe it is) then home advantage isnt going to save the Warriors over the length of an NRL season.

Example. A good team (eg NZ Breakers from the last 5 years) can go to Australia and win away from home on a regular basis just because their team is that much better.
An average to bad team (eg Phoenix, NZ Warriors) will lose at home and away, solely because the personnel arent upto it on a weekly basis over the period of a 20+ week competition..

Finally i think the records you quote are less to do with any home advantage and more to do with good, well drilled squads being superior to the opposition. Hopefully my theory is correct because if Cowboys are in a slump, then home advantage shouldnt turn them round enough to beat the Warriors if we play to our best ability and they continue to struggle. Home advantage is less and less a factor nowadays imo.

 

[Leber]

Tigers gone now I think, panthers prob a shoe in for 7th. It's between us and the Titans. We need then to lose and it sucks when they are playing the Knights

 

[SpaceMonkey]

yep Tigpies are sucking harder than we did last weekend. We should account for them next weekend, but we really want to roll the cows first to have a good chance of overtaking the Titans. Hopefully Penrith go on with their form next week and beat the Tits.

 

[Meth]

Titans are smashing the Knights, as expected.

Its not looking good for us.

 

[TheDMC]

Yup with Titans win we are precarious.

We could win our remaining three games, get 30 points and could still miss the top 8 on points for and against. That scenario would mean cows lose to us and titans but beat Dogs and end up on 30. And then titans, who beat cowboys, also beat panthers, they go to 31. And panthers, lose to Titans but beat sea eagles they go to 30.

On a more positive and more probable than the above but still unlikely, we lose to cowboys, but win our last two, end on 28 points, we will get a finals berth if titans lose against panthers and sea eagles meaning they stuck on 27 points.

Really we need 30 points. Today's game is pretty much do or die.

 

[Meth]

I think we basically need to win the next 3...and tonight is the toughest assignment

 

[vvvrulz]

I just can't see us bringing it in Townsville at the business end of things, hard to win games like this without a real 6 and 2.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Titans are smashing the Knights, as expected.

Its not looking good for us.

At least their for and against isn't likely to be a factor as they're on odd points. They've got the Panthers and Cows next two games so they might still be catchable.

 

[Leber]

Our season will be officially over in 80 minutes.

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Our season will be officially over in 80 minutes.

It's not official till Titans win a game or we lose 1 more.
But it probably 80℅ there.

 

[Leber]

we dont even deserve to be in the running tbh. When a team who has lost 9 in a row puts 41 points on you at home, you don't deserve to make the 8.

 

[ZEROMISSTACKLES]

Our run home starts with the Tigers.

Every games a grand final now.

 

[Wheeled Warrior]

Our run home starts with the Tigers.

Every games a grand final now.

It's over Dude. You got heart though

 

[Blair]

It's over Dude. You got heart though

Hang on a sec,...if you know a Titans fan then congratulate him/her on making the finals. A bit of over-confidence might be our last hope.