League has the rights stuff but will still finish second
GREG PRICHARD
February 10, 2011
There are variables that could affect the way it pans out, but television industry sources estimate that when the next deals are done, the AFL's TV rights will sell for ''very close to $1 billion'' while the NRL rights will fetch ''at least $800 million''.
Those numbers are based on the contracts running for the same length of time as the current deals. The existing AFL arrangements with free-to-air and pay-TV networks is a five-year, $780 million deal which expires at the end of this season. The NRL's deal, over six years, concludes at the end of the 2012 season and is worth $500 million.
That the AFL deal will be settled first is an obvious factor in that code's favour when it comes to extracting a greater share of the money the interested parties have available for Australian football and rugby league. And the AFL is sure to make the most of its first bite of the cherry.
On the plus side for the NRL is that the game of rugby league is captured much better on television than its rival. League, with its action much more ''in tight'', is made for TV, while Australian football isn't as easy to televise because of the expansive nature of the game, with players spread over a bigger field and long kicking being as important as short passing is in league.
Statistics show league also out-rates AFL on pay TV, which must greatly frustrate league officials, who are forced grimly accept that AFL still manages to pull in more money from the networks.
Why is that the case? And why, if industry sources are correct, is it set to remain the case when the new deals are done?
Those sources readily acknowledge that league is a ''very strong'' product that is in a much better position than it was when its rights deals were last negotiated. One expert described it as the ''best TV product in sport'', and added, ''The NRL will do considerably better financially than it did with its current contract.''
However, those same sources point out that the AFL remains a truly national competition, with teams in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth while the NRL remains focused on the east coast. Sure, Sydney is the biggest market in the country, but while league dominates there and in Brisbane, there is still an AFL presence in those cities that TV types describe as ''significant'' and certainly stronger than the league presence in Melbourne.
''The AFL is a national competition,'' one source said. ''They are the biggest football brand in the country, and since the last rights deals were done they have added two teams.''
Those two teams are, of course, the Gold Coast Suns, which will enter the competition this year, and Greater Western Sydney, which will come in next year.
The AFL has spent a fortune promoting the development of the two clubs, including poaching former league stars Karmichael Hunt for Gold Coast, and Israel Folau for GWS.
It won't really matter if, when it comes to the crunch, neither can play the game. The money spent on them has already attracted priceless publicity for the AFL. And the NRL hasn't anywhere near the sort of money the AFL has to splash around. League expects, with good reason, to significantly improve its financial position when the next deals are done, but the tip is that while it will make up ground on the AFL, it will still be runner-up.
''It [the AFL] is a bigger business overall,'' a source said. ''And that will again be reflected when the deals are finalised.''
